In a few days, the “2 in 1“ – for members of the European Parliament and the next early parliamentary vote in the country. During the campaign, media reports on actions of the Ministry of Internal Affairs authorities on signals of bought and controlled votes became more frequent. On June 3, the Minister of the Interior announced that, at this moment, there were 213 reports of election violations received by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and 80 pre-trial proceedings had been initiated. What to expect… Iva Lazarova from the Institute for the Development of the Public Environment (IRPS) spoke to FAKTI.
- Mrs. Lazarova, how are we to understand that the Ministry of Internal Affairs “respects“ the places that the media show as a possible vote-buying target…
- If we go back to the elections of April 2021, from the Institute for the Development of the Public Environment (IRPS), then we presented the most vulnerable places to electoral violations in the country. We tried to direct the attention of the responsible institutions, media and civil activists to those sections in which between 2013 – In 2017, there were serious and persistent deviations from the results in settlements and regions. Since the introduction of machine voting, there have been a number of claims that pressure voting and rigged voting will decrease. Did not happen. It turned out that to a large extent the seats with deviating voter behavior remained the same even then.
- What does atypical voter behavior indicate?
- Before the “2 in 1“ elections, which will be held on June 9, it is good to look at the behavior of voters in sections with serious deviations from the general results in the respective settlements and electoral districts. At the end of 2022, the Electoral Code was changed again and returned the “mixed” voting in sections. Thus, in April 2023, voters could vote by machine or by paper, just as they did in April 2021. We then checked whether there were sections with deviant voting behavior in both campaigns. And our goal remains the same – to focus institutional efforts in those points of the country where the political participation of citizens is likely to come under pressure.
- Can we talk about risky sections now? Where are they, how much are they…
- Our analysis shows that a total of 827 sections of the two elections show serious deviations from the general results in the respective settlements and regions. In the parliamentary elections in April 2021, a total of 186,515 votes were cast. In 2023, there were a total of 143,724 voters in the risk sections. The largest number of risk sections are in Haskovo region – 81, followed by Shumen - 64, and Burgas – 60.
- How voting in them changes the vote…
- Our analyzes show that the electoral weight of votes in sections with deviating voter behavior amounts to between 5%-10% for each of the parliamentary elections since 2013. This does not mean that the weight of the controlled vote is the same. In some cases, there are rational explanations for deviant electoral behavior in sections. People in small towns and homogeneous communities can vote according to personal preferences – for example, for a candidate who is from the area or ethnic group, who has a professional reputation, etc. But deviations in electoral behavior can also be due to serious violations – be it voter control and corporate vote, administrative pressure and others. That is why a comprehensive assessment of the manipulated vote for each region must include a multi-factor analysis.
- And what measures can be taken?
- There are different ways to limit voter pressure networks. They include direct and short-term measures aimed at counteracting the controlled vote, and long-term policies aimed at improving conditions in areas at risk for the electoral process.
The first group of measures necessarily includes actions by the Ministry of Internal Affairs, such as concentrating its efforts in the identified risk points, exchange of employees, conducting actions and investigations, etc. In addition, facilitated cooperation between civil organizations and law enforcement agencies can contribute to the submission of information by voters who are worried about reporting to the Ministry of Internal Affairs in small settlements. Of extreme importance in this area is the subsequent effective work of the judicial authorities in the consideration of the cases related to the violation of the political rights of citizens.
The second group of measures is long-term and requires interaction between the work of the institutions regarding the essential problems in places. It requires a will on the part of the parties to have an ongoing interest in the issues of the local communities that vote for their candidates. The full inclusion of professionals from vulnerable communities in the work of political formations is also part of the long-term solutions aimed at the fairness of the electoral process.