On November 5 in the USA, extremely contested presidential elections take place. The outcome of the vote will have a significant impact on a global scale, including on a number of social and political processes in our country, write from “Gallup International Balkan”. On this occasion, the agency is participating in a large-scale sociological survey on attitudes and expectations towards Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, conducted in 43 countries around the world under the auspices of the international association “Gallup International” (founded in 1947).
If the Bulgarians were faced with the electoral dilemma "Donald Trump or Kamala Harris", the majority would prefer Trump. He would get 49%, and Harris – 36%. Only 15% of respondents do not state a preference for any of the candidates. Similar attitudes are shared by respondents, regardless of their personal biases, about who will win the vote in the States – 46% expect it to be Trump, and 36% – Harris. At the same time, the majority of our compatriots believe that the battle for the White House is of essential importance for our country and will influence what is happening economically and politically – 57%. Only 12% felt that the events of Overseas would not have such an impact, and 7% rated their impact as little.
In addition to higher support for Donald Trump, Bulgarians also associate higher positive expectations with him. Thus, for example, 34% expect a possible presidential term of Trump to improve the position of the USA in the world, while the share of citizens who declare such an expectation for Harris is 25%. In favor of the candidate of the Republican Party of the USA, the proportion is also in favor of the question of which of the two potential presidents can bring more stability – only 20% think it would be Harris, while 35% associate such an expectation with Trump.
The results of the study also show some interesting regional differences in Europe in relation to the attitude towards the candidates for the White House. They are based on socio-cultural, historical and ideological factors. In Western Europe, there is overwhelming support for the liberal-progressive candidacy of Harris, while in Eastern – for the candidate of the American conservative right Trump. It is significant that support for Kamala Harris is highest in Scandinavia, where the left, social liberalism and the increased redistributive role of the state have traditionally defined the shape of the social and political model. If they had such an opportunity, as many as 85% of the voters in Denmark, 82% in Finland, 81% in Sweden, 81% in Norway would vote for the candidate of the Democratic Party of the USA. Conversely, in Eastern Europe, where the historical changes after the fall of the Berlin Wall were associated with the dismantling of the all-powerful totalitarian state and its inherent social equalization, higher support for the American conservative right-wing candidate Donald Trump was observed, with the highest values register in Serbia - 59%, in Hungary - 49%, in Bulgaria - 49%, in Slovenia - 43%.
Globally, the picture is different, especially with regard to the expectations for the possible management of each of the candidates. Two out of three people in the 43 countries covered by the survey think the impact of the US election on their country will be “very strong/high“ – 67%. The survey also reveals that 38% share their expectation that Harris will improve America's position in the world, while only 19% share such an expectation with Trump. A Harris presidency could help increase stability, according to 32%, while a Trump administration would contribute to a decrease in global stability, say 49%. A clear majority of 59% in the 43 countries surveyed would advise the US president to put more US resources into helping Ukraine, or at least keep them at current levels.
Globally, a total of 40,888 people were interviewed in 43 countries. In each country, a representative sample of around 1,000 men and women were interviewed in October 2024, face-to-face, by telephone or online. The margin of statistical error for the survey is between +3 and 5% at the 95% confidence level.