The great geopolitical winds in the world are already blowing from Moscow, Washington and Beijing in one direction, and whoever manages to sense them in time will be among the winners. This is the main emphasis in the analysis of Associate Professor Valentin Vatsev, who in an interview with "Epicenter.bg" commented on the new international situation after Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential elections.
According to the geopolitical analyst, the Bulgarian political elite seems disoriented in the new situation, and Prime Minister Boyko Borisov has no more than two or three weeks to take decisive action and establish contact with the new US administration.
"Borisov is very difficult because he does not know how to orient himself. Germany was his strategic ally and still has a chance to be one, but the US has already changed its mind," Vatsev points out in his interview.
The analyst believes that the situation is currently complicated due to the growing contradiction between the United States and the European Union, especially regarding the war in Ukraine. He claims that the Bulgarian approach of demonstrating unconditional loyalty to Europe, at a time when Europe is in conflict with the new American administration, is a strategic mistake.
"They are confused in Europe, and ours have decided that it is safest to be unconditionally loyal to Ursula von der Leyen, which is a lack of foresight. This is an attempt to replace strategy with tactics," Associate Professor Vatsev is categorical.
Particularly worrying, according to the analyst, is the fact that Bulgaria is missing the chance to declare its position in the new geopolitical picture that is currently being formed. Vatsev believes that Borisov should have sought contact with the Trump administration a long time ago, and could have used Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban as an intermediary.
"Borisov should have tried to make contact with Trump a long time ago, to show interest. Technically, this could have been done through Orban, who would have gladly connected him and told Trump that his arguments in Bulgaria were being taken seriously and were being considered sincerely," commented Vatsev.
According to the geopolitical analyst, who has been teaching the history and theory of European integration for more than 20 years, the European Union was not created to function autonomously from the United States and cannot endure for a long time in a state of contradictions with Washington.
"Europe is not a subject of geopolitical will. Europe cannot endure for a long time in a state of contradictions with the United States," emphasizes Associate Professor Vatsev.
Vatsev warns that the processes in US-Russian relations are accelerating and may become institutionalized within the next two or three weeks. According to him, Bulgaria and Prime Minister Borisov personally have less and less time left to navigate the new situation.
"No one will stop the train so that Boyko can run to grab the last carriage. The last train will depart in three weeks at most. Because the negotiations already have their pace, the two sides have agreed when, where and what they will talk about," explains the analyst.
In conclusion, Associate Professor Valentin Vatsev believes that if Borisov continues to adhere to his current approach, he will become a destabilizing factor in Bulgarian politics and will remain vulnerable to his political opponents.
"If he continues to act in this way, Borisov will be at the disposal of his opponents, who will then crawl out of their holes and he will no longer have protection, there will be no geopolitical winds blowing in his sails. But, I emphasize, Borisov still has little time to do what he needs to do," concludes Associate Professor Valentin Vatsev.