The war in Ukraine has entered a phase in which a peaceful solution must be sought, as it is gradually escalating to direct threats and the danger of a clash between NATO and Russia. This is where the role of the US and Trump comes in, who on the one hand threatens Russia with new sanctions, but also emphasizes that he saw in the Russian president a desire to stop the war, and on the other hand states that the Ukrainian people want the war to stop, but he did not see such a desire during the meeting with the Ukrainian president. The suspension of military and intelligence assistance to Ukraine is a categorical form of pressure that comes to show that without the US, Ukrainian defense could have extremely serious consequences.
This was told by the diplomat and chairman of the Committee on European Affairs and Control of EU Funds Dimitar Gardev to FOCUS.
Zelensky's request for the US to provide security guarantees after the ceasefire implies the presence of US troops on the territory of Ukraine, which is a prerequisite for a possible direct military clash between the US and Russia, the expert explained, adding that "Zelensky's desire to involve the US directly in the conflict was absolutely transparent, and that is why he was denied". Macron's proposal for military units from the Coalition to be sent to Ukraine, but given that the US is also participating, was again denied by the US.
"If there are no US troops stationed in Ukraine, there is no way to deploy the protection of Art. 5 of the NATO treaty, since it provides for the protection only of the territorial borders of the member states or if this is a NATO mission. And here is the delicate moment - this is what the American president insisted on: first, a ceasefire agreement should be signed, and then an agreement on American investments in the industry of Ukraine, thus Ukraine will receive an even greater guarantee in the form of American investments,“ he explained.
According to him, the negotiations have reached the critical point at which a ceasefire should be signed and an agreement to resolve the war should be concluded, and for him, the peacekeeping forces should categorically be mandated by the UN. "Because the possibilities for provocation, the possibilities for this war to escalate into World War III are much greater than if we move towards a peace plan with the consent and decision of the UN Security Council, where the five permanent members who have the right of veto, in addition to the US, UK and France, are the Russian Federation and China. Here the scale is much different and will require Russia's consent, as well as its guarantees, the undertaking of commitments, to prevent this deployment of peacekeeping forces from turning into a full-scale conflict.“
The expert is categorical that Europe is extremely lagging behind what the US currently has in terms of military and intelligence capabilities. According to him, there is no longer any doubt that European defense is necessary and that we must catch up and quickly renew our entire military industry. From the point of view of how the funds will be found, this mechanism will still have to be clarified and decisions made, with specific visions and views on the issue – a loan from the ECB or diverting funds from other programs, as well as attracting private capital.
Taking funds as a loan and awarding orders as a priority to European manufacturers could help to carry out successful reforms in the industrialization of Europe, the expert also believes. The other way from where these funds can come is from those programs that cannot be implemented and absorbed by the previous plan, as the position expressed by Bulgaria here that funds should not be cut, such as the Cohesion Fund, which is related to the main goal of raising the living standards of the older members in the periphery, is important and timely.
"One possible hypothesis is that the money that is not absorbed under the Recovery and Resilience Plan can be redirected to these reindustrialization programs. This is good for Bulgaria, because we are currently holding back on the second phase of the absorption of the Recovery and Resilience Plan, and these unabsorbed funds can be redirected to the new projects that are opening up for the Bulgarian defense industry.“
According to Dimitar Gardev, the cabinet's proposal to establish a Center for Defense Innovation is a very good and appropriate solution that would unite the efforts, visions and interests, and capabilities of what constitutes the Bulgarian military-industrial complex in its entirety - both state-owned enterprises and the very powerful private sector.