There is a political alternative, but it does not seem possible to oppose the model that governs Bulgaria now. And the next player on the scene has 2 scenarios. The first scenario is for an authentic fighter against corruption to appear, wanting to heal the state. The second is for us to have a populist fighter against corruption, who will push authoritarian interests through this niche, predicts the sociologist from "Market Links" Dobromir Zhivkov in an interview with the Bulgarian National Radio.
Together with journalist Velislava Popova, editor-in-chief of "Dnevnik", they commented on the result of the failed vote of no confidence, the expectations for a new vote next week and the political processes in Bulgaria.
A new political force, an alternative to the current government, may emerge around the time the presidential elections approach and until then we will have to wait, analysts believe.
"The presidential elections are not that far away and there is another problem of the political class that everything is decided at the last minute. It is not normal to present the candidate a month before the elections. It is worrying that young people in small places are guided by the clientelism formula and this can bring serious shifts on the political map", believes the editor-in-chief of "Dnevnik".
According to her, the last vote of no confidence submitted by "Vazrazhdane" shows that after so many elections in the last 4 years, the parties are behaving as if in an election campaign and part of the distrust is precisely because of this:
"They are trying to show what kind of alternative they are. "Vazrazhdane" is one of the political forces threatened, including by the entry of "Velicie", because they have a similar electorate, and also MECH is fighting for people with similar positions. "Vazrazhdane" needs to show itself as the leader in this group of parties in the National Assembly in order to convince the others and lead them. Perhaps the vote of no confidence is a test for a broader coalition in the next elections."
Regarding the vote of no confidence, Popova pointed out that "noise is the new censorship and by creating many events to distract people, the focus is lost on what is important".
Dobromir Zhivkov predicted that at some point "Velichye", "Vazrazhdane" and MECH will have to form a coalition in order not to get lost in the next parliament:
"This no confidence accelerated and catalyzed the already clear request, verbally declared and recorded in the history of the National Assembly, support for this cabinet by the DPS-NN. For the first time, Borisov stated that without Peevski, things in the country cannot happen. After years when the MRF was a factor, but in passing, it went through appointments and regulators, this is now coming out quite clearly officially and openly. It was seen that the talk that GERB and MRF-NN are not together was conjunctural."
And he added that after interruptions we are facing risks that the next 3 years will be filled with serious corruption and institutional scandals.
"What turns out is that the political class has no way of solving this problem. Here without a social response, not just protests, but what we monitor and declare a position, what common background we create and which media to use, we cannot overcome this systemic problem, which is deepening. Without rethinking our civic activism, skepticism deepens."
And Velislava Popova pointed out that there is a strong polarization in society, that people do not hear each other and are divided, and she is observing the reactions:
"Currently, civil protests are useful and it is good, because after such a reaction, the institutions are activated. And if this is more frequent, as for the murder in Tsalapitsa, they protested every week to force the Ministry of Interior to do its job, there is a reaction. Such things, in the absence of another alternative, should unite these dissatisfactions and provoke action from the institutions."
According to her, these protests must have political representation at some point, and therefore she believes that an alternative will emerge in the next elections. "The current opposition will have difficulty generating electoral weight,", the journalist predicts.