Will the 7th and 8th units of the Kozloduy NPP happen after the American President Donald Trump imposed a 20% tariff on the EU. Do the two reactors remain economically profitable… Energy expert Dr. Ivan Hinovski spoke to FACTI on the subject.
- Mr. Hinovski, Donald Trump rearranged the world’s agenda, literally turned it upside down, and we have an agreement with the USA to build the 7th and 8th units of the Kozloduy NPP. In this sense The tariffs that Trump is said to be imposing on Europe, how will they affect the project? Is it still economically profitable?
- No one can say at the moment what will happen. The stress is great. Everything from now on depends largely on the EU's response to Trump's tariffs. If Europe imposes adequate import tariffs to those that Trump imposed at 20%, then our business with the US in the energy sector will be seriously hampered. If the tariffs happen, our projects will become more expensive, the import of nuclear and conventional equipment will become more expensive, engineering services will become more expensive, the prices of consulting services from American companies, design, supplies of spare parts and so on will become more expensive. The newly agreed equipment for the expansion of the gas transmission network will also become more expensive, because Bulgaria is currently planning to import natural gas compressors from there. The question of the price of the American nuclear fuel itself, which the Kozloduy NPP will use, will also remain open. has already been implemented. Fortunately, however, the plant that produces such fuel is on European territory - in Sweden. But this does not mean that if Sweden imposes import duties on American supplies of elements for this fuel, it will still not become more expensive for us?!
- What were the estimates for the value of the two units when we began negotiations with the USA and “Westinghouse?
- There is speculation about the price of the project, because no one can say the final price at the moment, not even some “master“ nuclear professors who practice on the subject, but many things are unknown to them. My expectations, which are based on extrapolations based on prices of standard equipment for such projects in other countries, are that the two units will cost about 15-18 billion dollars.
- And if we add a 20% duty on these 15-18 billion, does it make sense? Will the two new units at the Kozloduy NPP be profitable?…
- When we talk about exactly this type of modern projects, things are very relative. If you are doing something urgently, because for us by 2033-2034 a new nuclear unit is absolutely necessary for the energy system, in many cases the price is second in importance. Otherwise, as a strategy and planning principles, it is very important to have a comparison with other projects. That is, to observe the principle of the lowest costs in energy. The bad thing is that this principle has not been applied in our country for a long time, which harms us - the consumers.
- What are our alternatives at the moment. Should we rethink this project or is the contract with the US such that it must be implemented?
- We are still negotiating prices, financing and terms of implementation. In April 2026, when the estimates for the full engineering will be released - design, construction, construction and installation works, subcontractors and so on - the final price will also become clear. At the moment, no one can say exactly how much it will cost. One can only speculate. But I would like to highlight one important advantage of this project, that it has a high probability of being credited, and by two export agencies - of the USA and South Korea, which is a serious advantage for such heavy investment-intensive projects.
- And can there be here, given that the European Union will take some position on the tariffs from the USA, when it comes to nuclear energy, nuclear equipment, there be some additional agreement that is not so heavy and does not complicate the construction of American reactors in Europe?
- It would be good, but the question you pose is an extremely complex geopolitical case, because Europe will no longer have an interest in developing new American nuclear projects on its territory. And this is logical, because the biggest competitor of the USA in nuclear energy is the French company "EDF-Framatome". It is a supplier of similar technologies and is building such plants in Great Britain and Finland. I expect that at some stage protectionism will manifest itself in Europe to "make it difficult" new American nuclear projects. This is my intuitive expectation and is a consequence of the expected response to US tariffs on European goods.
- But wouldn't it be good for us if we continued with American technologies?
- What do you mean it won't be good for us... Nobody said that we will definitely build the American AP 1000 reactors. If they turn out to be socially unacceptable in terms of price, why build them? We can choose other alternatives. An excellent alternative is precisely the French nuclear power plants and technologies. We are talking about reactors that have a European license, there are such ones built in Europe, in Great Britain, and we will not have any problems with their licensing, including the use of funds and grants such as money from European funds. Another alternative is the Korean SAR-1200 nuclear reactors. The Koreans showed excellent organization and work, having completed such a project in Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates in a record five years. This project, which everyone assesses as unique, is one of the few, if not the only one in the world in recent times, that was completed "on time and within the budget". This project has attracted the attention of Poland, which is negotiating its implementation there, but also supports the option of the AP-1000. Last but not least, we may consider at some stage whether to "make friends" with China, because they have long been producing the Chinese equivalent of the AP-1000. At the moment, everything is in the hands of our politicians and is a matter of geopolitics. Otherwise, as a possible alternative, I (as an engineer, not a politician!) do not rule out that in a year or two our relations with the Russian company "Rosatom" will "unfreeze" and perhaps suitable conditions will arise for the renewal of the project to build the "Belene" NPP with the supplied Russian equipment.
- That's what I was going to ask more. We actually have a large part of the equipment and have completed things on the “Belene“ project, and we are looking at how to build other reactors…
- What was built as a site for the “Belene“ NPP was compromised to a large extent after it was flooded, and was called a “swamp“ by a politician… Modern safety requirements require the expansion of this site, the construction of many additional systems such as the so-called “system for capturing the molten core“, new deep dredging of the “Danube“ river, etc. This site simply needs to be “dug out“ fundamentally. That we have bought some of the equipment for the nuclear island – yes. But this is no more than 20% of the entire cost of a new nuclear power plant.