Standing in his front row uniform in his Aurus convertible, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu drove through Red Square to inspect troops at the Victory Parade that took place last week. This was the last such inspection that he does in his capacity as a minister.
Over the weekend, President Vladimir Putin replaced 68-year-old Shoigu, the longest-serving minister in his cabinet. Such a radical change is unusual for the Kremlin, and at a time when the Russian offensive in northwestern Ukraine is achieving success. Equally astonishing was the choice of a frame to stand in for Shoigu. Andrey Belousov – A 65-year-old economic expert who has never been in the military or law enforcement. Belousov's appointment as head of the defense ministry was seen as a move aimed at strengthening control over military spending and synchronizing the fast-growing defense sector with the rest of the economy, which has been hit hard by Western sanctions.
The casts surprised quite a few analysts, and some mysteries are yet to be revealed.
Shoigu's post looked threatened at the start of the 2022 invasion as Russia suffered setbacks on the battlefield that angered Russian hawks. Many people blamed him and the Chief of the Army General Staff, Gen. Valery Gerasimov for the failed attempt to capture Kiev, as well as for the hasty retreat of Russian troops in North-East and South Ukraine in the conditions of a decisive counter-offensive. Last year, Russian mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin launched a scathing and profanity-laced verbal attack on Shoigu and Gerasimov, accusing them of incompetence and corruption. In June, Prigogine led a riot and demanded their removal. He seized military headquarters in the southern city of Rostov-on-Don and sent his mercenaries on a march toward Moscow, which he called off a few hours later. Two months later, Prigozhin and the top commanders of his group died in a suspicious plane crash in what many see as Kremlin revenge. Shoigu also seemed to have solidified his position. The Kremlin denied having anything to do with the crash.
Although Shoigu held the post of defense minister for eleven and a half years, in the last month his fortunes seem to have taken another negative turn. His deputy, Timur Ivanov, was arrested on corruption charges and put on trial before he even changed into his military uniform. Ivanov was a leading associate of Shoigu from the time before he took the post of military minister, and Kremlin observers saw a serious blow here. But Putin is notoriously loathe to fire under duress, and the staunchly loyal Shoigu, who has accompanied the president on vacations in the Siberian mountains over the years, was no exception. The situation ended favorably for Shoigu, and he was appointed head of the Presidential Security Council in place of Nikolai Patrushev. This position is more or less similar to that of the National Security Advisor in the US.
Patrushev, a long-time "hawk" and an influential member of Putin's inner circle, will be given a new position to be announced soon, the Kremlin said, leaving another question unanswered. "Shoigu moves to a respected and powerful position because of his loyalty and he and Putin remain friends," wrote on the social network "X". Dara Masiko – senior researcher in the "Russia and Eurasia" program; of the "Carnegie" Foundation. While Shoigu is given the opportunity to leave the defense ministry with dignity, Belousov will "probably make organizational changes," Masiko added.
The appointment of an economist to head the defense department is seen as a way to better manage the increasingly large-scale spending of Russian wealth as the third year of the war progresses. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stressed that a closer integration of the military sector with the economy is needed so that it can "synchronize with the current dynamics"
Belousov graduated from Moscow State University's Faculty of Economics and held senior government posts before becoming Putin's economic adviser in 2013 – 2020. Since then he has been deputy prime minister for economic strategies, advocating greater state control. Belousov is deeply religious and has repeatedly spoken of the need to uphold "traditional family values," which aligns with Putin's conservative agenda. When Moscow illegally annexed the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine in 2014, Belousov was said to be the only representative of Putin's economic team to immediately support the move.
Belousov is not Russia's only civilian military minister. Although Shoigu liked to wear a uniform, he had no military background whatsoever; before becoming defense minister, he headed the emergency ministry, responsible for civil defense and natural disaster management. Previously, defense ministers were the current head of the tax police Anatoly Serdyukov and Sergey Ivanov – former head of foreign intelligence. But all of Belousov's predecessors held the post in peacetime, while he heads the defense department at a time in the war that many military analysts see as crucial. Now Russia is trying to take advantage of the slowdown in Western arms supplies to Ukraine.
The Kremlin tried to reduce the mass confusion caused by Belousov's selection as defense minister by stressing that the fighting in Ukraine was actually being led by the army's chief of general staff, Gerasimov. "In many ways, the chief of the general staff is the person who reports directly to supreme commander Putin, and the minister is really only supposed to make sure that the army has everything it needs," said Mark Galeotti, head of the consultancy " ;Beacon Intelligence". "The appointment of an economist, someone who has talked about the need to basically subordinate a large part of the economy to the military sector, actually makes some sense. "It's basically a financial administrator job now," Galeotti added. He said Putin could still replace Gerasimov, whom he described as "lacking imagination and prone to really wasteful operations". Galeotti also believes that Gerasimov is "definitely unwilling to reveal to Commander-in-Chief Putin some of the realities of war". "Ukrainians should hope he stays in office," said the head of "Mayak Intelligence".
Many people expect Belousov to purge the ministry of key Shoigu associates, but such a move is unlikely to promote stability at this pivotal moment in the conflict. Masiko and other observers believe that some popular commanders whom Shoigu views as rivals and has tried to remove could regain high office. Among them is Gen. Sergey Surovikin – known for his long-standing contacts with Prigozhin and valued for building a multi-layered defense system that thwarted a Ukrainian counter-offensive last summer that ended in failure.
Pro-Kremlin political analyst Sergei Markov said Putin's key motivation was to curb corruption at the highest levels of power, embodied by figures such as Ivanov, who was arrested in April and charged with taking huge bribes. "The situation with Timur Ivanov showed that corruption has exceeded all limits," Markov pointed out. Another task for Belousov will be to cooperate more closely with the industrial sector so that the army can be modernized quickly, Markov added.
Putin likely expects Belousov to integrate the defense ministry agenda and broader economic policies, according to the Washington-based think tank the Institute for the Study of War. "This effort creates conditions for a more comprehensive economic mobilization and suggests that the Kremlin will continue to prepare for a protracted war in Ukraine," the institute wrote.
Alexandra Prokopenko from the program "Russia and Eurasia" of the "Carnegie" Foundation also sees Belousov's appointment as a sign of the Kremlin's intentions for a protracted war. "War is Putin's priority; the war of attrition is won through economics," she wrote. "Belousov advocates stimulating demand from the budget, which means that military spending will at least not decrease, but rather increase."
Translation from English: Nikolay Velev, BTA