The European Parliament is on the verge of getting a new a political family formed by the extreme right at a time when the left is giving an unexpected slap to the right in France.
"In first place is the so-called New People's Front, headed by the far-left Mélenchon, and in second place, somewhat surprisingly, is not the "National Assembly" on the extreme right, while President Macron's party, which received only 14.5 percent in the European elections, and now in the second round receives almost double", Professor Lubomir Gavrilov explained to BNR in a comment on the results of the French early parliamentary elections - president of the "French-Bulgarian Forum" association.
"I was somewhat surprised by the results, because the French electoral system is majoritarian in two rounds, unlike the British one, which is also majoritarian, but in one round".
According to tradition, in the first round, it is said that the French vote with their heart, and in the second round - with their reason, emphasized Prof. Gavrailov.
Or the broad coalition of far-left socialist greens from third in the first round became first, and the winners in it - the far-right party "National Assembly" remained third, after the "Together" presidential bloc.
"Numerically, the three blocks differ by up to 15-20 seats, i.e. an almost unmanageable situation is obtained, somewhat similar to the Bulgarian one, so the Bulgarian listeners will not be too surprised and know what it is about. Mélenchon has already announced that he will not form a coalition with the presidential party, with the "National Assembly" too. And although he gets the most votes, he will not be able to govern, he will not be able to appoint a first minister - he does not have an absolute majority.
Is there a winner of this vote?
"In this election, one winner is Mélenchon, and the second winner is unexpectedly Macron, because his party is in the middle and in the best situation to compose with all the right-wing forces, i.e. probably something like an assembly will result. It is expected that there will be unstable political governance in France in the next two years. Let's also remind that after 2 years in France from the presidential elections, in which Macron can no longer run. This is his second term, he cannot have a third.
France is entering unknown waters, Stefan Manov from the Public Council of the CEC warned for BNR:.
"A significant political error was made by President Macron in his assessment of the situation. He underestimated neither the left's ability to unite nor that the vote of the people who voted for the party of Jordan Bardela and Marine Le Pen was not just a protest vote of anger. The party is now becoming a much more representative political force for the population, for which the vote is not rejecting".
"Things have changed - during the previous mandate of the ruling party, it was hardly considered shameful for someone to say that they voted for Marine Le Pen, but not anymore because 1/3 of the population voted for her. The party has largely changed both its domestic and foreign policy. Just months ago, they were suspected of having strong ties to Putin and sympathies for the regime in Russia, but now it's the exact opposite. Macron suggests that they may send French soldiers to Ukraine, while Berdela is against it. And for domestic politics - the main topics of the "National Assembly" are emigration and the so-called penal ecology", added the teacher, who, like Stefan Manov, lived for many years in France, where the words of the far-right president Jordan Bardela and its leader Marine Le Pen were not heard.
"I call on the French to join me and the "National Assembly" to win against those who want to divide us, undermine public order and mock our values," Bardella said after the first round, while Le Pen was adamant that her party had "virtually wiped out Macron's bloc".
However, the calls of the French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal - to "prevent the "National Assembly"" were fulfilled. to have dominance in the parliament and therefore rule the country with the evil plan she has devised.
The right may have underestimated the situation, but didn't President Emmanuel Macron do the same by calling elections after the European elections, disappointed with their results?
We don't know what his true intention was, but things are not catastrophic for him at the moment. Something that was completely ruled out a week ago is now possible - for Gabriel Atal to continue to be the first minister, to be reappointed," explained Professor Gavrilov for BNR:
"The other hypothesis is to look for a consensus figure among the socialists, but not among the extreme leftists. Things depend to a large extent on a new one from Macaron - we had written him off a bit hastily, but the ball is in his court again at the moment. The real reason for him to call for new elections is the presidential election in two years. If things would continue the way they have so far, it is almost certain that in 2 years Marine Le Pen would be president.
Will Marine Le Pen continue to eye the presidential seat?
"This is obvious - two years is not far at all. They will target the presidential election. The dilemma before the "National Assembly" is that Marine Le Pen herself is not very popular in France mainly because of her father, who had even more extreme views than her and is often accused of anti-Semitism, racism, etc. Or she is not a popular figure unlike the young Bardella, who apparently quite liked the French in the first round when they voted with and when he won the most votes.
Why didn't the voters recognize Jordan Bardella in the second round?
Well there are two reasons - one is technical, since there are the two big blocs playing against Barbela - that of President Macron and that of Mélenchon, have agreed to form a sort of sanitary cordon around Berdela's party, i.e. all against one. And the second reason is that in the second round, the French vote with their common sense, which suggests that it is a bit risky to give all the power suddenly to Bardela's party. He has yet to prove himself. However, we will note that he gets twice as many seats as in the previous parliament. In a sense, he is also a winner, although he is disappointed that he had raised the bar a little higher than he could jump. But they are progressing and the future is ahead of them - he is 28 years old and has not said his last word.
However, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal had the last word, ie. is he going?
"Now the will of the people must be strictly observed! The prime minister must go!", the leader of the French radical left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, also called.
"It is entirely possible that he will not be replaced - Mélenchon's desire does not oblige the president to keep Malenchon as first minister. Moreover, the very coalition that he heads is unwanted as prime minister. We can note that President Francois Hollande is running somewhat unexpectedly in his region, where he was once elected - he is quite a consensus figure among the socialists and could take over the baton or at least assist in the negotiations. One way or another, there will be something like an assembly", predicts Prof. Gavrilov.
"Assembly" managed to achieve "Patriots for Europe" - the future new group of ideologically similar parties recently created by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
It already has a sufficient number of MEPs as members, so that it officially stands out as a new political force in the European Parliament.
"I present to you a new political alliance formed by patriotic forces that play a leading role in their countries. This alliance is conceived as a launch vehicle that will carry with it other parties at the European level for the sake of a better European future," said the leader of the Austrian Freedom Party, Herbert Kickle, at the presentation of the new group, which, according to Prof. Ulf Brunbauer of the Institute for Eastern European Studies is "an association against Europe, against the European Union as we know it".
The formation can become the third largest political force in the new European Parliament - if it is joined by the French "National Assembly".
"The creation of the new group will "bury" "Identity and Democracy". Among its members, there are big differences in terms of migration policy and in the attitude towards Russia", added for BNR the general secretary of the Austrian Society for European Politics Paul Schmidt, according to whom "the future of this third far-right and Eurosceptic group is very uncertain".
"This is not the first attempt to unify this type of parties. For Marine Le Pen, only the national elections are important, and not so much the parliamentary ones as the presidential ones. In order to win them, she cannot afford extremes," he also said.
Is it still possible for him to do so and join the "Patriots for Europe"?
"It is very difficult to say because the theme of the "National Assembly" is the national domestic policy. and Europe is in second place, they don't talk much about it. It should take a few weeks for the horizon to clear, to see where things are going... They probably don't know themselves, and right now they are probably debating. So it turned out that both the left and the presidential formation decided to do, as the French say, "barrage" before the "National Assembly" of Berdella, i.e. to do everything possible for him to lose the maximum number of seats in the second round. It's not fair things, but they always happen in the second round", explained Professor Lubomir Gavrilov.
What comes next for France and Europe, and others for Bulgaria?
"This will probably lead to some political instability at the European level - there will not be a clearly defined foreign policy of France, but a foreign policy that follows the well-trodden track, as it has been until now, without radical changes", the president of the "French Bulgarian Forum" company also said:
"Rather, there is a lesson for the Bulgarian voter, or rather for the Bulgarian politician. In the elections in France, the turnout was 67 percent, and in previous elections it was almost 2 times less, i.e. the lesson for the Bulgarian politician is that when there is a political offer that interests the voters - they come out. And when there is none - they do not vote, i.e. there must be a political offer, as Berdela did".