The Ukrainian army has shown a very high level of military skill in the offensive near Kursk and demonstrated to the whole world the weak points of Russia. But the offensive so far does not answer some of the most basic questions.
The Ukrainian offensive in Russia's Kursk region, which has been ongoing for the second week, has slightly clarified the situation and led to a change in the West's assessment of the capabilities of the Ukrainian army. Skepticism is now receding into the background, says Munich Security Conference expert Nico Lange.
"Very high level of military skill"
"Military experts highly appreciate how in conditions of complete secrecy and great discipline it was possible to prepare and then carry out such an operation," he says. According to him, Ukraine has shown a very high level of military skills. "We saw that Ukraine can also advance, not just defend," says Lange. He explains the Ukrainian success with the increased morale of the Ukrainian military and with the fact that Ukraine managed to break the series of negative news from Donbass. There, Russian troops are advancing slowly towards the strategically important cities of Toretsk, Pokrovsk and Chasov Yar.
However, was the operation in Kursk worth the efforts and funds thrown by Ukraine – the answer to this, perhaps, most important question will become clear only after time, adds the expert. From now on, however, at least one positive effect is clear for Kyiv – in the course of the offensive, many Russian soldiers are captured, which will allow Ukraine to exchange them for Ukrainian soldiers captured by the Russians.
"Ukraine showed Russia's weak points"
"Ukraine managed to show the whole world Russia's weak points,", says Catherine Sendak from the Washington Center for European Policy Analysis. From 2018 to 2021, she was responsible at the Pentagon for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia. According to her, with its advance in the Kursk region, Kiev is trying to gain a more advantageous position in future negotiations with Russia. However, Russian President Putin has already made it clear that such accounts will not turn out to be true.
According to Catherine Sendak, the operation near Kursk pursued several important goals - to show “Ukraine's ability to organize an offensive and change the perception of how war is fought”. The second goal, according to her, is to force Russia to retreat and transfer combat units to Kursk. If this is the case, Kiev is definitely taking a risk, because Western sources report the movement of Russian troops to the Kursk region, but not from the Donbass, but from other areas of the country.
Will Ukraine get more weapons?
Some Ukrainian media have raised the question of whether the military successes in Kursk will act as a catalyst for new arms supplies and for the lifting of restrictions on the use of Western weapons systems for strikes against Russian territory. So far, no country has announced an increase in supplies, but “Politico” came out with information that the US is willing to discuss the issue of the delivery of long-range cruise missiles.
In general, experts are cautiously skeptical. "I don't know if the Kursk operation is an argument for providing more weapons," says Catherine Sendak. And now the US is sending a lot of equipment and weapons to Ukraine, she recalls.
Niko Lange also does not expect serious changes in the current policy of helping Ukraine with weapons – not before the US presidential election in November: “I don't think there will be any drastic changes,”, he says. This also applies to Germany, which - in the words of the political scientist - “is doing what America is doing”.
Will Putin use nuclear weapons?
Experts are cautious when it comes to predictions. Catherine Sendak suggests that President Putin is considering various options and has not yet decided “what the response will be”. She believes it is unlikely that he will choose the option of using nuclear weapons, which has already been repeatedly threatened by Russian officials at various levels, including former President Dmitry Medvedev. Putin is aware that “Ukrainians cannot hold the territory for long”, says Sendak.
Niko Lange believes that Ukraine is now "already in a position to slowly - over the course of weeks or months - withdraw (from the Kursk region), inflicting as many losses as possible on the Russian army". In any case, for Kiev, "it is better for the war to be fought on Russian territory, and not only in Ukraine," he adds.