They had many months to prepare for this. But it was only after Donald Trump's re-election that Western leaders took stock of his divisive policy and gradually emerged from denial, renewing their pledges to help Ukraine. Verbally, support for Kiev reached a new high, as if panic-stricken allies wanted to act before the president-elect, who is already operating in Washington, imposes a peace disadvantageous to Ukrainians. This is what the political analyst Isabel Lasser writes in an article for the French daily newspaper.
To reverse the tide and take history by storm, the Biden administration allowed the Ukrainians to use US ATACMS missiles to strike military targets in Russia. This was a long-standing request of the Ukrainians, which the American president, fearing a new "escalation" of the war, so far refused to respect. As before, before he changed his mind, he refused to deliver heavy tanks and F-16 fighter-bombers. "The help from the international community helped us survive. But the delays imposed by endless political debates and the brakes placed on aid caused the loss of many lives. It's time to let Ukraine win, not just let it resist and not lose. More than ever, we need real courage and real leadership," sums up the Ukrainian Aleksandra Matviychuk, winner of the 2022 Nobel Peace Prize, at the Paris Peace Forum.
Is the US change of course presented as a response to the commitment of 10,000 North Korean troops to Russia likely to change the balance of power on the ground? "The Americans are doing what they should have done at the beginning of the war, instead of limiting their aid to prevent the defeat of Russia. But these missiles will not change the course of the war. It's too late. The Ukrainians can no longer win back territories", analyzed a high-ranking diplomat close to the topic. Since the issue of long-range missiles was put on the table, the Russians have had time to prepare for it by moving certain military infrastructures away from the front to protect them.
For now, the American green light applies to the Kursk region. By allowing Kiev to defend the positions it gained in August on Russian soil, it will seek to put the Ukrainians in a better position during future negotiations. But will it be expanded to other regions of Russia? The Europeans are just as guilty. Having underestimated the Russian threat for a long time, they did not prepare for the changes in American priorities. Today they are watching with panic and horror the arrival of Tornado Trump, who wants to give a furious kick to international unrest. The agreement given in Kiev should logically be followed by that of the British and French for their Storm Shadow and Scalp missiles. But for the time being, the Europeans have, above all, spoken out against a possible termination of aid to Ukraine by the future American administration. The EU and NATO will help Ukraine "as much as necessary", promised Emmanuel Macron.
At the Paris Peace Forum, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barro promised that the first French Mirage fighter jets would be delivered early next year. Ukraine "can count on the EU", added European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. But Europe is divided. She showed it again with the ill-fated initiative of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who broke the isolation imposed on Vladimir Putin by calling him on the phone. Emmanuel Macron did the same at the start of the war to try in vain to get concessions from the Russian president. Olaf Scholz repeated the attempt at a time when the Ukrainian army is experiencing great difficulties on the ground and when he himself is chancellor on probation. His initiative was undoubtedly aimed at restoring the EU's position before the start of possible negotiations. But according to President Volodymyr Zelensky, this "opened Pandora's box". The chancellor, who promised that Germany would not leave Ukraine "alone" against Russia, still refuses to deliver the Taurus missiles requested by Ukraine. In Berlin, the temptation to return to "business as usual", with Moscow as with Washington, is never to be underestimated. "Germany must do everything to maintain good relations with the United States," he said. In particular, it must work in favor of a "return to peace in Europe".
Europe is also disarmed. While NATO requires its members to spend at least 2% of their GDP on defense, eight countries still lag far behind. France and Germany barely reach this minimum. Only Poland, where the share of the population exceeds 4%, seems to have realized the problem. If Donald Trump suddenly ends aid to Ukraine, the Europeans will undoubtedly have no means to compensate. Even more so if Germany halves its aid to Ukraine as planned, and if France, choked by its budget deficit, has to revise some of its ambitions downwards. But it is Europe that will have to manage its eastern borders. "We need to stand up to the Russian threat instead of wondering if we are going to sacrifice a piece of Ukraine. Otherwise, we will pay dearly and for a long time", warns Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen at the Paris Peace Forum. The strategic autonomy championed by Emmanuel Macron ultimately triumphed in the European discourse.
But how long will it take before all countries take action? Another race has started in Russia after the American elections. Long in preparation, it is played not with words, but with weapons. Its aim is to seize as much territory as possible before Donald Trump takes power and establish a balance of power favorable to Vladimir Putin before any negotiations begin. Energy infrastructure in major Ukrainian cities was hit hard by airstrikes last weekend. According to US intelligence services, 50,000 troops, including North Koreans, are preparing a counter-offensive to retake the territories captured by the Ukrainians last summer in the Kursk region. It is also reported that the Kremlin is preparing an upcoming attack on the southern front, in the Zaporozhye region. Since October, Russian forces have shifted gears in the Donbass, where they have captured over 400 square kilometers. Without flinching, Russia's allies Iran, China and North Korea stepped up their military aid. A paralyzed Europe always promises: Ukraine's fate will never be decided without Ukrainians, and the territorial integrity of the country cannot be negotiated. Today, however, everyone risks being presented with a fait accompli by Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.
The question has never been more acute: Will Europe be anything but a spectator if the two men agree to decide the fate of Ukraine?
"It is a matter of will and military-industrial capacity. We know what to do and how to do it. But will we have the capacity and the will to achieve strategic autonomy?", asks senior European Commission official Peter Wagner at the Paris Peace Forum. Elina Valtonen hopes for that: "It would be necessary, because it is not only about the fate of Ukraine, but also about the future of democracy and Europe.