As they say, the US is happy, Israel is happy, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS , along with the Syrian opposition are happy, the PKK – too. Assad has fallen, the West in the person of Macron and Scholz are ecstatic about this news, and greetings are flowing from the HTS and the PKK/YPG to Tel Aviv and between them respectively.
And the praise for the force that entered Damascus at the head of opposition fighters, HTS, how "well they managed Idlib under Assad"; they don't stop. Turkey is also among the lucky ones as a supporting force involved in the overthrow of Assad. But with concerns about how this will affect the PKK/YPG's strategic goals for their own state education. No matter if it's like autonomy or just Syrian Kurdistan.
That is why Ankara keeps repeating that it stands behind the “territorial integrity of Syria”, which is not guaranteed at this stage. But Erdogan's daughter wrote on the networks: "Assad fell and Erdogan won." Fact, Turkey annexed Aleppo and without extremes and upheavals. He entered Damascus with his groups and will rule through his proxies there. Ankara has never forgotten that Beirut, Aleppo and Damascus were 3 vilayets in the Ottoman Empire.
Well, the time has come for the specter of the Ottoman Empire to rise again. Syrian refugees from Turkey, most with Turkish passports, will return to Syria, mostly to Aleppo, and Ankara's influence and role will be undeniable. There is no one on the other side, and Jolani raises the flag of the opposition on a mosque and bows deeply in the direction of Turkey.
Abu Mohammed el-Jolani, now Sharaa, as his real name is, has been transformed into a new Che Guevara, and efforts to rebrand him as the moderate Islamist leader of the “revolution against Assad” are in progress. His interview with CNN well before the situation of entering Damascus after the capture of Aleppo, Hama and other major cities in Syria is an eloquent signal of his role in upcoming events.
Not much time has passed since as an Islamist fighter who came to Syria from Iraq in 2011 with a $50,000 scholarship given by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the most wanted terrorist in the world, to creating a Syrian front of Al Qaeda, now Jabhat al-Nusra. Today he is the leader of the HTS and is now a “more acceptable revolutionary” who declares that he “is not waging war against Western countries”.
In Damascus, Jolani, in a change of clothes and an armored car he drives alone, is asking for “benevolence from the West”. And there they say that the “axis of resistance has been broken” of Iran and Russia is out of the game in Syria. But Israel is on Syrian territory, in the so-called a buffer zone in the Golan Heights that was created under a 1974 ceasefire agreement with Syria. Netanyahu says it doesn't apply because Assad is gone and Israel is “taking a temporary defensive position”.
We know that there is nothing more permanent than temporary positions. Never mind that the Arab League said in a statement that “Israel is illegally trying to occupy more territories”. It is said by countries which, according to Western media, have denied Assad a harbor after he left Damascus.
It is suggested that Assad's fall was unexpected and surprising. He made the mistake of not uniting the Syrian citizens – Druze, Kurds, Alawites, Christians, Sunnis, Shiites, but ruling only through his Alawite tribe. He did not accept compromises and insisted on the departure of Turkish forces from Syria. But Turkey is on the ground, and the very fact that the Syrian National Army, which it supports militarily and financially, has joined the coalition is a sign that Ankara was informed about the operation.
And Trump says that “we have no business in Syria and we are not interfering there”, but he talks about getting out of Syria without mentioning Assad. And American forces on the ground are bombing settlements held by the “Islamic State”, IS, because a number of observers around the world note that “the last secular state in the Middle East is being destroyed” and through radical Islamist groups.
Is an Islamic state being created in Syria or is Erdogan rearranging the cards for his neo-Ottoman ambitions? Jolani himself has already stated that in Damascus there will be “management of Muslim communities”, but negotiations will be held with all. But in fact it is a matter of numerous terrorist organizations, which are now jubilant because Assad has left power in Damascus, but are otherwise so disparate and at war with each other that their habits of robbery and extortion are rampant in the small places they control on the territory of Syria.
The fears that after the collapse of the central state in Syria will lead to chaos, sectarian and ethnic conflicts are not at all unfounded. And Ankara is worried, oddly enough, that the CIA and Mossad have more control over Islamist groups in Syria than Turkey. Separately, the fact that the PKK/YPG can take advantage of the turmoil /after the withdrawal of Assad and Syria disintegrated, as expected/ and mobilize to expand their territory for their strategic goals. They have the support of the USA and Israel and they clearly won't stop there, they claim in Ankara.
Trump said that “Syria is in shambles anyway and is not our friend.
The US should not be involved in it at all. Syria is not our problem. Let her take her course and don't interfere”. And "now the Russians are pushed out, just like what will happen with Assad /?/, but this is not bad for them. Syria didn't do much for Russia except to show that Obama was a fool”. But Reuters was quick to report that Assad had been killed. Moscow announced that he and his family were in Russia. And a Russian representative in Vienna specified that “Russia never leaves its friends”.
This as a signal to friendly countries in Africa and the Middle East. And contrary to those, including our experts, who were quick to say that after the collapse in Syria, Russia will be forced to withdraw from Africa as well. Lavrov in Doha, at the meeting with the foreign ministers of Turkey, Fidan, and Iran, Erakchi, says that “Moscow wants to see a dialogue between the Syrian government and the opposition. It is unacceptable to allow the opposition to take control of Syrian territories”.
In this regard, Assad's decision to step down was personally and peacefully arranged after talks with the jihadists, as they are called. Forewarned decision. For now, Moscow is in negotiations with the opposition so that no one hangs Russian military bases in Syria. Worked normally. At this stage. Well, Turkey closed the straits to prevent any Russian interference with ships, but apparently Moscow has decided, as Putin says, “not to be more Syrian than the Syrians themselves”. Russian military bases are, after all, on the Mediterranean Sea and are particularly valuable for influence and role in the Middle East. However, it cannot be hidden that what is happening in Syria is a slap in the face for the Russians and it will negatively affect the country's image. Erdogan's shadow covers Moscow.
In general, the division of Syria is on the agenda, because there are many players on the ground and in the region. Everyone wants a piece of the Syria pie. And this also means a big gain for the US-led Atlantic front in the war against developing countries, as a number of Turkish commentators write. The Syrian tragedy began after Assad's refusal to build Qatari gas pipelines, which, passing through Syria, Israel and through Turkey, would cut off Europe from Russia. The reason for this refusal by Assad is to first solve the problem with the Golan Heights.
It may be speculation, but Turkey would control Qatar's pipelines. Separately, it is known that Washington has its military units at the largest deposits of oil, gas, water and grain in Syria, Deir ez-Zor. Will the war continue? Especially in the intertwining of interests of Russia, China, Iran, USA, Israel, Europe, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, which do not hide goals and motives? The USA, Israel and Turkey win.
Questions about why Assad left Damascus hardly matter anymore, but it is important to emphasize that he simply had no other way out.
The very fact that it is in Russia is a sign that the Russians have no intention of withdrawing from the region. Regardless of the fact that Ukraine has directly intervened among the radical groups in Syria by training them, supplying them with weapons and drones, attracting Chechens, Uighurs, Georgians among their ranks. War with the Russians in Syria as well. And with the hope that cutting off Iran and Russia's influence in Syria will have a negative impact on Russia's influence around the world.
The ability to maneuver in the Mediterranean will be weakened. But to expect that Putin's relations with other Arab governments such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar could suffer is a short-sighted position. But it is more than clear that Turkey's relations with Russia and Iran will not be “favorable in the coming periods and mistrust between these countries will increase,”, some in Ankara say. It is about the economic relations with Russia in particular, from which Turkey has profited a lot in recent years. The Russians have already remembered the old saying “if you defeat a Turk in battle, he will kiss your hand until he bites it off at the shoulder”.
There are too many uncontrollable factors in Syria. Therefore, the integrity of Syria is by no means certain. The deteriorating balance of power in the entire region is separate. While Russia has shown that it is not capable of carrying two watermelons under one arm. Ukraine is draining its strength, and a negotiation process for a diplomatic solution is still only wishful thinking.
The moment of Assad's seizure of power was chosen precisely – Iran is weak after the destruction of Hezbollah, the destruction of Hamas and the attacks of Israel. Moscow wonders where to shine – in Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, the republics of South Asia or first inside the country. The rule of striking at the weakest moment is observed. The question is who will have the last laugh or who will have the last word. Apparently it's coming.