After rebels seized Damascus in a lightning offensive and forced Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad to flee, the world is trying to make sense of the latest dramatic rift in the Middle East and its consequences, notes "Politico".
WINNERS
Syria (maybe)
The Syrian people have endured a 13-year, multi-layered civil war and nearly half a century of brutal rule by the Assad family, which has used censorship, state terror, mass deportations, chemical weapons and massacres to maintain its hold on power. The war has killed between 470,000 and 600,000 people, according to various estimates, making it the second deadliest conflict of the 21st century after the Second Congo War.
More than 13 million Syrians have been forcibly displaced by the conflict - 6.2 million of them have fled abroad. The war formed the circumstances for the rise of the particularly barbaric jihadist group "Islamic State".
Whether ordinary Syrians will be victorious depends on what happens next in their country and whether Syria can avoid further violence and develop peacefully. Some fear that there will be a power vacuum and that the various political factions and religious groups in the country will clash, notes "Politico".
There are valid reasons for concern. The main rebel faction "Hayat Tahrir al-Sham" (HTS) has been declared a terrorist group by the US. Its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jowlani, has a long history as a jihadist fighter and is a former ally of the late Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of the Islamic State group. (ID). Eventually, the two diverge on tactics and become rivals and bitter enemies.
HTS broke away from al-Qaida, but al-Jawlani has done much to retrain his group, which numbers around 30,000 fighters, into a nationalist force and adopted a conciliatory tone towards Syria's religious minorities. In the Idlib enclave, which HTS has ruled since 2016, the group has softened its treatment of the Christian and Druze minorities. When Aleppo was taken, Jaulani promised the Christians that they would be safe, and the city's churches could function unhindered.
The question is whether Jaulani and HTS have really abandoned their extremist roots. On Friday, the HTS leader said the group had evolved and that rebuilding Syria was now a priority. "Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is only one part of this dialogue and it can fall apart at any time. It is not an end in itself, but a means to accomplish one task: opposition to this regime," he told CNN.
The hope is that HTSH has indeed become more moderate, but "trusting Jaulani and HTSH is very much like Oscar Wilde's famous line about second marriages [as] "the triumph of hope over experience,"". warned former American diplomat Alberto Fernandez.
Turkey
Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Bashar al-Assad were once friends, but the Turkish leader supported the rebellion when it erupted nearly 14 years ago - mainly because Turkey's geopolitical rival Iran supported the Syrian regime, Politico said.
Turkey is the main sponsor of the armed Islamist opposition groups in Syria. As the war has progressed and moderate and secular pro-democracy rebel factions have fallen or their more hardline and disciplined Islamist rivals have taken over, Ankara's role has grown. The fall of Assad is now likely to help Erdogan realize his geopolitical agenda, offering him the opportunity to achieve several strategic goals, including containing Kurdish separatists in northeastern Syria, who have close ties to Kurdish separatists in Turkey. The necessary recovery will also prove beneficial for Turkish business, the publication notes.
"A huge victory for Turkey - a stroke of genius by Erdogan," says Timothy Ash, an economist and commentator, in an article in "X".
Israel
Iran was quick to accuse Israel of orchestrating Assad's overthrow; when Aleppo fell to the rebels, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said it was "a plot by the Israeli regime to destabilize the region". While it is convenient for Tehran to blame the Zionists - and the military humiliation of "Hezbollah" on the part of Israel has certainly helped the rebels in Syria - there is no evidence of direct Israeli military aid, notes "Politico". Moreover, such assistance would not be necessary given Turkey's patronage of the rebels.
However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu applauded Assad's ouster, saying the Syrian leader's fall "is a direct result of our decisive action against Hezbollah." and Iran, Assad's main backers. It started a chain reaction for all those who want to break free from this tyranny and its oppression." However, he emphasized that despite the great opportunities that this "historic day" offers, it is also "fraught with significant dangers". Netanyahu ordered Israeli troops to occupy Syrian army positions after they were abandoned in the Israeli-Syrian buffer zone in the Golan Heights to "ensure that no hostile force will be stationed immediately next to Israel's border," and to be ready for any chaos that may break out in Syria, states "Politico".
Toppling Assad is clearly beneficial for Israel. It marks a further weakening of Iran's regional power and removes an important member of Tehran's so-called axis of resistance. Without Assad and a friendly regime in Syria, Iran will have no land supply channels to its partner Hezbollah to aid the group in its war with Israel, making the militant Lebanese Shiite movement another clear loser since Assad's fall. This could make Lebanon a winner if the country manages to escape from the grip of "Hezbollah" and become a more normal country.
LOSERS
The Kurds in Syria
Bashar Assad has largely left the Syrian Kurds to their own devices in northeastern Syria, where they enjoy semi-autonomy. It is doubtful whether the new regime in Damascus, if it is dominated by Islamists, will give the Kurds the same freedom of action - especially since it will be beholden to Erdogan, states "Politico". Of course, this largely depends on the political development of Syria. But the Syrian rebel offensive has also seen territorial gains by Turkey-backed Islamists against the US-backed Kurdish armed group the People's Protection Forces (YPG), which has lost control of some towns and villages in eastern Aleppo.
Syrian Kurds are unlikely to be reassured by Donald Trump's post on social media on Sunday that "THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET HER DRAIN. DO NOT INTERFERE!".
During his first term as US president, Trump wanted to withdraw all US special forces soldiers from northeastern Syria, where they were fighting – together with the Kurds - with the jihadists of the "Islamic State". The Pentagon convinced him to keep some of them stationed in the area; an estimated 900 US troops are still in the country.
Earlier this month, Trump ally and Cabinet pick Robert F. Kennedy Jr. revealed that Trump wanted to withdraw all US troops because of concerns that they could become "chicken fodder" in case of possible clashes between Turkey and the Kurdish fighters.
The Alawites in Syria
The Alawites make up about 12% of Syria's population and have long feared that if their co-religionist Bashar al-Assad is toppled, they will suffer. They are an offshoot of Shia Islam, are the backbone of the Assad regime and hold senior positions in the government, army and intelligence services. During the first years of the uprising, they formed the "Shabiha" – a pro-government militia that is responsible for mass murder and systematic rape. Even if HTS tries to avoid confrontation with them, there will be a thirst for revenge, Politico admits.
Russia, Iran and "Hezbollah"
The fall of Bashar Assad has dramatically weakened Russia's position in the Middle East. Together, Moscow and Tehran saved the Syrian regime from collapse in 2015, when Assad appeared close to being toppled. Iranian-led Shiite militias - aided by Russia's scorching bombing campaign - helped the Syrian autocrat retake Aleppo from rebels who had controlled about half the city for four years, Politico reports.
A senior Biden administration official told reporters: " It is simply a fundamental change in the equation of the entire Middle East."
Moscow has been pushing for Assad to reconcile with Turkish President Erdogan and explore political solutions to end the civil war. If this had happened, Syria would undoubtedly have been opened up to lucrative trade for Russian business and would probably have ensured the security of Moscow's strategic air and naval bases in Syria. In the summer, the Kremlin repeatedly tried to organize face-to-face meetings between the Syrian and Turkish leaders, the publication notes.
During an international conference in Doha at the weekend, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov angrily stressed: "It is unacceptable to allow the terrorist group to take control of [Syria]." However, Moscow did little to prevent Assad's collapse. Russian airstrikes in support of Assad since the start of the rebel offensive on November 27 have been minimal, no doubt in large part because Vladimir Putin has had to focus on Ukraine.
When in 2015 sent thousands of troops to support President Assad, one of Russia's main goals was to establish itself as a global power, the BBC points out.
This was Vladimir Putin's first major challenge to Western power and dominance away from the former Soviet space. And it seemed successful. In 2017 President Putin even visited Russia's Khmeimim airbase in Syria and declared the mission accomplished.
In exchange for military aid, Syrian authorities granted Russia a 49-year lease on the Khmeimim air base and the Tartus naval base.
Russia has secured an important bridgehead in the eastern Mediterranean. The bases became important hubs for the transfer of military contractors into and out of Africa.
A key question for Moscow is what will happen now to these Russian bases, the BBC points out.
The host of Russian state television said that the leaders of the Syrian opposition have guaranteed the security of Russian military bases and diplomatic missions on the territory of Syria. The Russian Foreign Ministry said the bases in Syria had been put on "high alert," but said there was "no serious threat to them at the moment.
And in the embassy of Syria in Moscow, the flag of the rebels has been flying since Monday…
""Hezbollah" was destroyed by the war with Israel, Iran is also much weaker as a result, while Russia has withdrawn many of its forces as they are needed in Ukraine. "Neither of the two allies is able to send support close to what Assad received in the past, which weakens his power," said Christopher Phillips of the British think tank "Chatham House," Politico reported.
…outside the "big" news
More than a decade of civil war and sanctions have destroyed the Syrian economy, according to CNN.
According to UN humanitarian workers, about 90% of the people there live below the poverty line, and more than half of the country's population faces acute food insecurity.
Syria's gross domestic product has fallen by more than 85% since the start of the civil war in 2011, according to an analysis by Capital Economics. And even so, Syria's small oil production already amounts to less than 100,000 barrels a day…
Inflation has reached 115% in 2023, according to an estimate by the World Bank, which also predicts that the country's economy will shrink by 1.5% this year.
This economic crisis poses a huge problem for the disparate group of Syrian rebel forces, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, who are taking power.
"Several countries, including the United Kingdom, are already debating whether to remove HTS from the list of terrorist organizations,” said Aniseh Basiri Tabrizi, a fellow at the British think tank "Chatham House" and senior analyst at the consulting company "Control Risks".
These and other problems are waiting to be solved by those who rule Syria. So far there are none...