Admiral Giuseppe Dragone: Bad peace can be more dangerous than no peace

According to the Chairman of the NATO Military Committee, Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, the prospects for a ceasefire and peace talks are becoming increasingly difficult to foresee against the backdrop of the current situation, the highest military official in the Alliance stated this in an interview with RBC-Ukraine.

With the coming to power of Donald Trump, the North Atlantic Alliance is experiencing difficult times. On the one hand, the American president makes seemingly reasonable demands - European members must spend more on their defense, since the current level of spending is clearly insufficient. On the other hand, there are numerous signals from overseas that Europe's security is primarily the concern of Europe itself and Europeans can no longer blindly rely on the United States as a key ally. Strengthening European defense is a long-term endeavor that will take time, while the threat from Russia is already here and now, the admiral believes.

Despite the disagreements in the committee, NATO members realize that the number one danger remains Russian aggression against Ukraine.

"Russia is an aggressor, no matter what excuses it tries to come up with to justify its actions", Dragone stated.

Regarding the ''hanging'' issue of Ukraine's membership in NATO, the NATO admiral stated categorically:

"The agreement that after the start and conclusion of peace negotiations, Ukraine's accession to NATO would automatically take place, never existed. Currently, Ukraine's membership in NATO is not part of the ongoing peace negotiations.“

''The main priority now for everyone is to achieve a just and sustainable peace. At the Washington Summit last year, NATO reaffirmed its commitment to Ukraine's future membership in the Alliance.

However, in the future, if all the necessary conditions are met, including the interest of Ukraine itself and the unanimous support of all allies, the possibility of starting a process of strengthening ties between Ukraine and NATO cannot be ruled out.''

According to Admiral Dragone, the main action that will strengthen the security of the entire European Union, including Ukraine, is to increase defense investment by all member states.

''At this stage, I don't think anyone doubts the absolute necessity for countries to spend more money to strengthen NATO for two reasons. First, one of the key principles of the Alliance is the sharing of financial responsibility, and for many years the United States has borne the lion's share of it. Second, the current and expected security situation requires a stronger alliance.

The Alliance consists of 32 countries, so it is natural to expect each of them to make its contribution. In this sense, President Trump is right: Europe must do more - and it is already responding. Defense spending within the Alliance is growing. If in 2014 only 3 countries allocated 2% of GDP to defense, then in 2024 this will be two-thirds of NATO members and the growth continues.

These are facts. A stronger Europe benefits America and makes NATO stronger. In a more dangerous and competitive world, NATO makes us safer,' Dragone concluded.

The NATO admiral did not hesitate to name the country that poses the greatest threat to NATO today and the result of a possible direct conflict between it and the Alliance.

'As is clearly stated in NATO's strategic concept and military strategy, the main threats are Russia and terrorist groups.

Regarding a possible conflict, such as a military one, I can say that if Russia were to take such a reckless step, the response would be catastrophic for Moscow. Without a doubt, NATO's forces and capabilities far exceed those of Russia. Thanks to its deterrence and defense posture, the probability of a "collision" with Russia is low, but not excluded. That is why our containment measures must remain strong and we must remain vigilant.

We have defense plans and they are powerful. We are ready. That is why for more than 75 years, the Allied countries have maintained peace and stability.''

According to him, Russia's behavior in wars is uncharted territory, but in any case, if its aggression is redirected to one of the member states, for example the Baltic states, then it will receive a lightning response from all the member states simultaneously.

''First of all, the Baltic states, Romania and Poland are members of NATO, so any aggression by Russia against these countries will be met with a response from all 32 countries of the Alliance.

On the other hand, since the 1990s, Russia has been repeating its actions cyclically - carrying out aggression and invasions in neighboring countries, often using hybrid and destabilizing campaigns that do not reach the level of full-scale war. This pattern of behavior has already been well studied.

As I have already noted, we must deter any potential ambitions of Russia or any other adversary to act against the Alliance. We must do this primarily through diplomacy, but any negotiations must be supported by our position of strength. The combination of soft and hard power is a unique feature of NATO.

Regarding the idea of deploying European troops on Ukrainian territory and how this could be useful for the effectiveness of guarantees for Ukraine's post-war security, Dragone said:

'In my opinion, the deployment of troops could be useful, but only under certain conditions.''

First, there must be an absolute ceasefire, respected by both sides. Second, a strong mandate is needed, preferably under the auspices of the UN. Third, it must be an authoritative, multinational force, consisting not only of European troops, and of sufficient size to ensure a significant presence along the entire Russian-Ukrainian border.

The main guarantee of Ukraine's security will remain its armed forces. During the three years of war, thanks to their resilience and the support they received, they have achieved an exceptionally high level of effectiveness and continue to grow stronger.

Ukraine will continue to receive important assistance from a number of countries in the form of arms supplies, training and interoperability. This will allow it to rebuild war-depleted capabilities and reorganize its armed forces to provide the necessary deterrence to prevent new aggression.

After the war, a lasting peace is needed. This cannot be another "Minsk-3". Russia must not use the ceasefire to regroup and must never again try to seize a single square centimeter of Ukrainian soil. That is why NATO allies are providing Ukraine with such significant support. This is important not only for the security of Ukraine, but also for the security of all of Europe and the world.''

According to the NATO admiral, it is not the first time that Ukraine's armed forces have shown resilience.

''Since the 1990s, NATO and Ukraine have developed a strong partnership. Ukrainian military personnel have participated in NATO operations and missions and conducted joint exercises with Allies, which has helped improve interoperability with Alliance forces.

Since 2016, NATO has supported Ukraine through the Comprehensive Assistance Package and other initiatives, such as the Military Committee Work Plan for Ukraine. These measures are aimed at strengthening Ukraine’s defense capabilities and implementing reforms in line with NATO standards, Euro-Atlantic principles, and global best practices.

During the war, Ukraine demonstrated exceptional resilience and adaptability, effectively integrating weapons, tactics, and training to NATO standards. Although technically and structurally, the Ukrainian army does not yet fully meet all the Alliance’s requirements, its combat successes, innovations, and leadership qualities make it an extremely capable force with which NATO can cooperate even more closely in the future.

During my visit to Ukraine this year, I personally witnessed the dedication of your military. These warriors inspire, impress with their professionalism, determination, and perseverance. They fight every day for their country and their future. At the same time, the Ukrainian army has demonstrated innovation on the battlefield, as this war combines modern and traditional methods of warfare. And we may have to adapt NATO standards in the future to meet new challenges.''

The situation on the front is unstable, despite the persistence of the Ukrainians, Dragone said.

''The situation on the front remains very unstable. The Russians continue to make small gains, but at a very high cost - with huge human losses and rapid depletion of arsenals.

Nevertheless, as I said, the spirit and courage of the Ukrainian military are truly impressive. Allies are doing everything they can to support Ukraine in its fully legitimate right to self-defense.''

According to the Chairman of the NATO Military Committee, the most important thing in the current situation is to achieve a lasting peace.

''The key task now is to achieve a just and lasting peace as soon as possible. It is extremely important for Ukraine to approach the negotiation process from a position of strength. That is why NATO continues to support Ukraine in anticipation of developments.

This is not about starting a war, but about ensuring that Ukraine can defend itself both now and in the future. The stronger Ukraine is, the better the chances of a favorable agreement for a stable peace. This is important not only for Ukraine, but also for the whole world.

Securing a long-term ceasefire is an extremely difficult task that depends on many factors.

Of course, we all strive for a complete cessation of hostilities throughout Ukraine and a just and lasting peace. But, as I said, a bad peace can be more terrible than no peace.

A frozen conflict is the worst-case scenario. Therefore, it is worth focusing now on achieving a real, lasting peace.