Comment by Daniel Smilov:
The "Zhelyazkov" government, which is now very likely, significantly changes the political situation in Bulgaria in the following directions:
1. It is far from ideal and is not even necessarily the best option possible in this parliament. But it is better than continuing the parliamentary crisis and new elections. From this point of view, the government will cause a sigh of relief in society, which will give it some initial credit of trust.
2. The GERB-BSP-ITN-APS coalition (whatever it is called) breaks two dividing red lines of GERB, which were actually the main reason for the series of seven parliamentary elections. The first red line was that GERB should not govern (openly) with the MRF, since "there is no good MRF". In the new format, the MRF-Dogan participates, although it is not invited to the government, but its votes are agreed upon for the parliamentary majority. This will lead to management decisions in favor of the MRF-Dogan, or at least the entire structure will depend on their parliamentary support. The second red line of GERB was "Euro-Atlantic" - not to govern with parties that are pro-Russian, especially after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. The inclusion of the BSP also violates this "taboo" of Borisov.
3. The fall of both taboos actually creates a supermajority behind the "Zhelyazkov" government. Since one of the MRFs of Dogan is good enough to enter the government, it follows that the other, the MRF-Peevski, is not so bad. This is actually – paradoxically – is the formula by which Borisov will tear apart the unimplemented and boycotted by him "sanitary cordon" around Peevski. "New Beginning" will be included by GERB in votes on many bills (as happened yesterday in the legal committee on the "Sarafov" package) and especially in decisions on appointments to regulators, services, agencies and judicial bodies. Similarly, if the BSP is not that bad from a "Euro-Atlantic" point of view, why shouldn't "Vazrazhdane" be integrated in some votes, at the cost of adopting important bills for this party.
4. Since the doors will be wide open to large parts of the opposition, there is likely to be a "false opposition" in this parliament. GERB gets along extremely well with "Vazrazhdane", and especially with "New Beginning" and their interaction has a serious history. From this point of view, these two formations will be very convenient as a verbal opposition and a de facto partner of the government, especially when it comes to important appointments.
5. PP-DB will be an unequivocal opposition to this government and this seems to be returning the country to some normality - after all, main opponents, between whom there are serious differences, can govern together only as an exception, not as a rule. The opposition of PP-DB will not be along the lines of decisions related to the eurozone or the ongoing integration of Bulgaria into the EU. Nor in terms of a reasonable fiscal policy. But PP-DB will be sharply opposed to attempts to integrate Peevski into the government, to entrench the current status quo in the judiciary and services and in appointments to regulators and services. Also in attempts to bring Bulgaria into anti-European coalitions a la Orban. However, it will be difficult for PP-DB to distinguish itself simultaneously from both the ruling party and the false opposition. It will also be difficult for voters to orient themselves, and this is actually one of the great initial chances of the new "assembly".
6. Can Bulgaria change its geopolitical orientation? The country's orientation will probably remain unchanged - i.e. it will continue to change with the change in the wind. It is amazing how shamelessly politicians and media figures claim that a change of government in Washington or Berlin should lead to a fundamental political change in Bulgaria. And this is generally said by the same people who are supposedly zealous defenders of Bulgarian sovereignty and national interest. Changes, of course, happen in the world and no one should bury their heads in the sand for them. But still, black will not become white, freedom will not become less valuable, democracy will not become meaningless, and Bulgaria will be able, if it wants, to remain part of the free world. The question is whether in the turmoil, misled by expectations of some colossal changes, we will not find ourselves by misunderstanding in the position of Moldova or Kyrgyzstan and return to the Soviet orbit. The new government is unlikely to go that way, but it is not excluded that it will embark on a pro-Russian energy policy (if it receives a sign from Trump that he will not give him a dime).
7. Can free (liberal) democracy suffer? Modern democracies are liberal democracies, in the sense that they combine the principles of popular sovereignty and the protection of human rights and the separation of powers. Attempts at illiberal democracies have ended either with autocracy or with generally minor adjustments to the existing model. Trump's coming to power will lead to some adjustments in the USA, and perhaps in Western Europe, but in general liberal democracy will be preserved there. Again, by misunderstanding, in Eastern Europe there may be deviations and radicalization in an autocratic direction. It is interesting what will happen in Hungary from this point of view, for example. The question is that Bulgaria should not be led in this direction. The new assembly does not give a clear answer to this question for now, but we should still initially trust the democratic and liberal claims of parties such as GERB and APS.
8. Will the rule of law strengthen? This is doubtful. The initial victim of the new government's altar will be the candidacy of Borislav Sarafov for Prosecutor General. But it is very likely that the old lobbies in the judiciary will be reproduced, especially if Borisov successfully brings Peevski into the government through the back door. At the very least, by making personnel decisions together with him - a right that no sanitary cordon can take away from him.
Interesting times are coming. The parties in the government will have to explain a lot about why and what they are together for. The parties in the opposition will also have a similar task - to prove that they are the real opposition, not a fake one. The worst that can happen is unbridled treason, garnished with geopolitical opportunism. The best - a difficult coalition that manages to maintain the country's strategic line by activating the familiar clientelistic schemes around GERB and DPS (these), with more or less generous portions for BSP and ITN as well.