What will happen if the Russian army captures Pokrovsk? This question has been discussed by the media and experts since August 2024, when Russian troops approached the key center in the western part of the Donetsk region. Since then, the Ukrainian armed forces have managed to slow down their advance, except in one direction - the south. From there, the Russian troops surrounded Pokrovsk. There are suggestions in the press that they may temporarily abandon street fighting for the city and head west, towards the neighboring Dnipropetrovsk region. How likely is this and how quickly can the Russian army move towards the city of Dnipro?
Why is the army bypassing Pokrovsk
“It is unlikely that they will leave Pokrovsk in their rear and head in another direction“, Viktor Tregubov from the Ukrainian operational-strategic military group “Khortitsa“ tells DW. “This is illogical and risky for them”, he points out and adds that, in his opinion, it is more logical to expect the transfer of the main efforts of the Russian army to the northern part of the Donetsk region – to the cities that are under the control of Kiev: Konstantinovka, Kramatorsk and Slavyansk. Tregubov believes that this would correspond to the declared goals of Russia, which has inscribed the Donetsk region in the Constitution as part of its territory. According to the Ukrainian military, the bypass of Pokrovsk is aimed more at cutting off the logistical routes of the Ukrainian army than at a breakthrough towards the Dnieper.
Austrian military expert Colonel Markus Reisner has a similar opinion. He believes that for the Russian army now it is not so much about capturing new settlements as about cutting off the supply lines of the Ukrainian military. “From a purely military point of view, it is more expedient not to go west of Pokrovsk, but, for example, to repeat the earlier unsuccessful attempt to move from north to south - to increase pressure on the Ukrainian group in the Donetsk region”, he says. For now, according to Reisner, the Ukrainians are defending themselves there successfully. But the Russian army's move to other areas, such as the capture of Kurakhovo in early January, allows it to free up forces to transfer to the Pokrovsk area, the expert believes.
Reizner notes that the fighting for Pokrovsk is being waged differently than for other cities. He points out that there has not yet been a massive use of artillery there, as was the case during the capture of Bakhmut in the spring of 2023. "I think the Russians are trying to capture Pokrovsk in a way that it suffers minimally, because they need a transport hub for their further movement," Reizner points out. He reminds that beyond the front line on the Russian side there is a “completely destroyed territory“, there is almost no infrastructure, which is why Pokrovsk is important for supplying “the next operations in the western, northwestern and northern directions“.
When could a threat to Pavlograd arise
If we assume that at some point the Russian army will move from Pokrovsk to the Dnipropetrovsk region, the largest city on its path will be Pavlograd. Experts do not expect the movement to be rapid. Ukrainian military journalist, editor-in-chief of “Censor.net“ Yuri Butusov believes that if the Russian army is not stopped, a threat to Pavlograd could arise in about a year and a half. He explains his assumption by the fact that from the Donetsk suburb of Avdiivka, which was occupied in early 2024, the Russian army moved for half a year towards Pokrovsk, and the distance there is 40 kilometers. From Pokrovsk to Pavlograd it is twice as long. "It is too early to talk about Pavlograd," Butusov is convinced, according to whom, however, the situation for the Dnipropetrovsk region as a whole is "very threatening."
Pavlograd is a large industrial center in the Dnipropetrovsk region. "The situation around Pokrovsk is tense, but the city of Pavlograd and the region continue to work effectively," Dmitry Pavlov, the chairman of the Pavlograd municipal council, told DW. According to him, the city now has over 100,000 residents, and the total population in the region is over 230,000, including displaced persons from Donetsk and other eastern regions of Ukraine where fighting is taking place.
The city is home to not only the largest coal mining enterprise in Ukraine - Pavlogradugol, but also the Pavlograd chemical plant, which is important for defense, where explosives and ammunition are produced. The Yuzhmash plant, which once produced fuel for ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads, is also located there. After Ukraine abandoned nuclear weapons, it was used to dispose of toxic rocket fuel.
How quickly can the Russian army reach the Dnipro
At the end of 2024, Russia launched a strike with its new ballistic missile "Oreshnik" precisely on "Yuzhmash". From Pavlograd to the regional center Dnipro is 75 km by road. The city of Dnipro has a population of almost one million - it is the fourth largest Ukrainian city after Kiev, Kharkiv and Odessa. This is one of the largest industrial centers in the country, which after the start of the fighting in Donbas in 2014 became, together with Kharkiv, an important center for supplying the Ukrainian army in the east. The experts DW spoke to are sure that the Russian army will not be able to get there quickly, but this is one of its goals. From Pokrovsk, the Russian military "will go in all directions", concentrating their efforts where the "weakest parts" are, believes journalist Yuri Butusov. His opinion is that for Russia the most important thing is “the destruction of Ukraine's defense potential“.
The pace of the advance westward, towards the Dnieper, will also depend on whether Ukraine can build strong fortifications and prepare reserves, says Markus Reisner. In some other directions, there were problems with this, which is why Ukrainian units had to retreat. “The Russians' dilemma is that the further they advance, the more they have to worry about their flanks and supply lines“, the military expert notes. “This is exactly what ruined their plans at the beginning of the invasion.“ Reisner compares the tactics of the Russian army to a necklace. “They are trying to string the beads one after the other, leaning on the last one.“ According to him, this is exactly what is happening now in Pokrovsk.
Author: Roman Goncharenko