Comment by Emilia Milcheva:
Politicians often confuse the square with the parliament, and then threats are heard, such as the one uttered by the leader of “Vazrazhdane” Kostadin Kostadinov: “We will not allow Bulgaria to enter the eurozone illegally. We will set you on fire if necessary!”.
“Vazrazhdane” is not a threat
Is the arsonist a threat to the stability of the ruling coalition? No. Competition on the political market is intensifying - many parties are adapting anti-European rhetoric in moderate doses, taking away the monopoly of “Vazrazhdane” from the niche with the “European Janissaries”, “servants of Brussels” and “neoliberal perversions”. This mobilizing tool has already become dull.
After seven parliamentary elections in 4 years, arrogant behavior and vulgar expressions do not “burn” as voters become resistant to radicalization and the monothematic enemy. And the competing party “Majesty” is trying to strengthen its positions with the opposite approach – loud encouraging messages and promises of change.
The Battle for the Euro
Bulgaria is on the verge of becoming the 21st member of the eurozone – a historic opportunity, confirmed by Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov after his meetings in the European Parliament. The preparations are going on without much fuss - the government of Zhelyazkov is expected to request extraordinary convergence reports due to the fulfillment of the inflation criterion. The BNB approved an ordinance to ensure liquidity for banks after the adoption of the euro. And the parliament anchored the currency board with a law - the fixed exchange rate of 1.95583 leva for 1 euro is maintained and any amounts in leva will be converted according to it. The exchange rate cannot be changed because there is a decision of the parliament, he reminded Kostadinov and Dragomir Stoynev from the BSP. Not that Kostadinov does not know it.
The Socialists and “Ima takvi narod” (ITN), partners of GERB-SDF in the ruling coalition, will probably trade their resistance to the single currency. BSP partners in the united left such as ABV, but also from the ITN repeat the mantras of “Vazrazhdane” - now is not the time, Bulgaria is not prepared.
The good news is that there are no upcoming laws related to the eurozone that would require their votes, the bad news is that the 2025 budget could close the window to the euro. The government of Rosen Zhelyazkov has not yet submitted it to parliament, but any populist spending spree will be costly.
If Bulgaria does receive a decision to join the eurozone from January 1, 2026, a new fierce debate is ahead within the ruling coalition and outside it about the funds released from the foreign exchange reserve. According to the rules of the currency board, it covers the levs in circulation, which are 31.078 billion levs at the end of 2024.
These billions cannot be spent arbitrarily. One part of the released funds will maintain reserves in euros, but the decision on the other will be made by the government and the BNB. Whether they will be spent on repaying foreign debt, financing infrastructure projects and other national priorities - decisions are yet to be made.
Does Bulgaria want 4.3 billion euros
In addition to the euro, the coalition must also find common ground on the Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP). Bulgaria is seriously lagging behind - out of a total of over 5.6 billion euros, it has received only 1.37 billion. The reason? The political dispute over coal-fired power plants. While the RRP requires a timetable for their closure, the coalition agreement guarantees them support.
And here the left is pulling out an old trump card - the Belene NPP. Although everyone knows that the project is dead, the BSP is trying to prevent the sale of the two Russian reactors to Ukraine, as well as any aid to the country attacked by Russia. The deal is not yet complete, after the parliament last fall gave another 180 days for negotiations and a condition that the price not be lower than the 1.2 billion leva paid for the equipment. The deadline expires in March, and the Ukrainian parliament has already authorized Kiev to buy the reactors. However, the Bulgarian side is studying whether the steam generators for the “Belene” NPP can be used at the “Kozloduy” NPP.
The work on the PVU is urgent, as the deadline for absorbing the funds is mid-2026. After a meeting with the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, the Prime Minister made it clear that he and the coalition partners will work "to break down some political differences related to the PVU reforms". The big problem is known - the coal-fired power plants, for which the Roadmap for Carbon Neutrality now only lists the deadline for their closure - 2038. But the ITN and the BSP are opposed. In addition, for several years now, the ruling parties, no matter who, have been unable to reach an understanding on the law on personal bankruptcy, also a requirement of the PVU. Now the BSP has also submitted its own project, different from the three-time redrafted one, which is pending in parliament.
Appointments will be scrutinized
The upcoming election of members of the Supreme Judicial Council (SJC) also has the potential to blow up the coalition. Its current political quota dates back to 2017, when it governed the second coalition government of GERB. Boyko Borisov's party received four representatives, three for the BSP and two each for the “United Patriots” and the MRF. Now the coalition, which will distribute quotas and influence, again includes GERB and the BSP, as well as the MRF, albeit in a reduced composition, and “There are such people”. In order to be elected to the SJC, the 11 will need 160 votes, as they have 126. The problem with these missing votes will also cause a clash among the ruling party. Whichever political force is invited, the agreement requires that it receive approval from all four in the governing alliance.
PP-DB has 37 MPs, the judicial reform has given meaning to their political battles, but they remained out of power. MRF New Beginning of the Oligarch Peevski has 30 MPs, but even an uninvited person, sanctioned for corruption under the “Magnitsky” law, can exert influence through other parties, as has been done more than once.
The distribution of seats among the political forces in the future SJC will also determine the election of the “big three” - the prosecutor general and the presidents of the supreme courts. PP-DB has hinted at its readiness to participate. The co-chair of the PP-DB parliamentary group, Nikolay Denkov, stated in parliament that they are ready to participate in negotiations for the bodies with mandates - "with clear rules and clear responsibility of the political forces". "If they seek participation from our side for the regulators, we will enter the process, if it can be meaningful", said Denkov. If they do not enter the process, in the next five-six-seven years the power in the regulators and the judicial system will remain in (almost) the same hands.
Bulgaria is facing a long series of compromises on which the future of key national policies such as the eurozone, the EMU and judicial reform depends.
Arsonists leave only ashes.