According to Donald Trump, the Iranian nuclear crisis could be resolved without Israel having to launch a military strike against the Islamic Republic. The statement was made on Thursday to media representatives at the White House.
Israel perceives the Iranian nuclear program as an existential threat and wants to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear bomb. For 40 years, the leadership of the Islamic Republic has threatened Israel with destruction. For a military strike against Iranian nuclear installations, Israel needs the support of the United States. "Iran should not have nuclear weapons," President Trump emphasized in an interview with "Fox News". But he did not explain how he plans to prevent this.
Iran, for its part, denies that it wants to create nuclear weapons. The new US president may agree to a new nuclear deal with Iran, Iranian Vice President for Strategic Affairs Mohammad Javad Zarif said on Wednesday at the Davos forum. He expressed the opinion that during his first term, Trump was poorly advised - by former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, former national security adviser John Bolton and special representative for Iran Brian Hook. These are all people who do not play a role in the new administration. When asked why Iran believes the US would agree to a new nuclear deal, Zarif replied: "I hope that in his second term, Trump will be more serious, more focused and more realistic."
Iran is closer to nuclear weapons than ever
"The Iranian regime has a strong survival instinct. Its top priority is to ensure its own continuation," Iran expert Arman Mahmoudian told DW. "Under certain conditions, the US government could reach a new and better agreement with Iran. In my opinion, the most important factor would be for the US to clearly signal that it does not seek political change in Iran."
Iran's political system is under extreme pressure, caused by a long-term economic crisis, further escalated by mismanagement, corruption and tightening US sanctions. The brutal suppression of every protest is an expression of the growing rift between the regime and the population.
"The American president can greatly increase the pressure on Iran - for example, through greater sanctions in the energy sector", analyst Omid Shoukry explained to DW. "It is possible that the maximum pressure strategy during Trump's second term will be aimed at Iranian oil exports to China. And sanctions will be imposed on Chinese companies and refineries that import Iranian oil. This will further exacerbate the already tense economic situation in Iran."
In 2018, during his first term, Trump withdrew from the Vienna nuclear agreement, which was supposed to control Iran's nuclear program. In order to achieve a "better deal" than his predecessor Barack Obama, Trump put Iran under maximum pressure. A year after the US withdrew from the deal, Iran has begun to gradually withdraw from its commitments. Today, experts believe that Iran is closer to building a nuclear bomb than ever before.
Trump Aims for Security
The dispute over Iran's nuclear program has flared up again in recent months. In November, Tehran announced that it was putting thousands of new centrifuges into operation to enrich uranium. Iran is currently enriching uranium to 60 percent - more than 90 percent would be needed for nuclear weapons.
To limit Iran's nuclear program and push the leadership in Tehran towards a better agreement, the US has other means of pressure besides sanctions, says Iran expert Mahmoudian. "The US can implement measures such as a naval blockade or military action. But for now, President Trump is unlikely to be ready for measures that would lead to a direct military confrontation between the two countries. He seems to be seeking an agreement that would provide the United States and its allies with security in relation to Iran's nuclear and missile programs."
"Axis of Resistance" is under pressure
Iran is also under pressure on the foreign policy front. The "Axis of Resistance" that Tehran has built, consisting of the terrorist organization Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah in Lebanon and militias in Syria, has suffered heavy defeats in recent months. Now the Trump administration has again designated the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen as a terrorist organization.
"The "axis of resistance" has been hit, but it has not disappeared", Yossi Mekelberg, a Middle East expert at "Chatham House", told DW. "There are both opportunities and risks at the moment. Iran remains a significant power in the region. We need dialogue within the region to reduce tensions and seize opportunities - for example, by expanding the scope of the Abraham Accords. Nuclear issues should also be part of these talks."
The agreement signed in September 2020 at the White House normalizes Israel's relations with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, and later with Morocco. These agreements are considered one of Trump's greatest achievements in his first term.
Author: Shabnam von Hein