Ukraine is under increasing pressure to hold the presidential elections this year, postponed due to the war. Is this even possible and what risks are associated with it?
When will elections be held in Ukraine? Foreign journalists are increasingly asking Volodymyr Zelensky this question, but his answer does not change: "There will be elections when the hot phase of the war is over and there is no longer martial law in the country".
The elections in Ukraine are part of Trump's plan
The elections in Ukraine have been discussed more and more often since the topic was raised by the US special envoy for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg. He told Reuters that he expects elections to be held in Ukraine by the end of 2025, especially if Kiev and Moscow soon agree on a ceasefire. In early 2024, other American politicians also spoke about the need to hold elections in Ukraine, but these were isolated statements.
Russia has also been pushing for this for nearly a year. President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly questioned Zelensky's legitimacy, because Ukraine was supposed to hold elections in the spring of 2024. However, the Ukrainian constitution prohibits elections during wartime. Now Moscow says it can negotiate with Zelensky, but signing an agreement to end the war will be possible only after the elections.
It is possible that elections in Ukraine will become part of the US plan to stop the war, but its details have not been published yet. Special envoy Kellogg is expected to arrive in Ukraine this month. John Herbst, a former US ambassador to Ukraine and an expert at the American think tank "Atlantic Council", told DW that he was not surprised by Russia's position on the issue. According to him, this is part of Moscow's strategy to postpone negotiations to end the war. The former diplomat praised Trump for his admission that "Putin is an obstacle to negotiations". But he said it would be wrong for the new administration in Washington to use the elections in Ukraine as a bargaining chip in the negotiations.
Why Russia wants elections in Ukraine
German journalist and Ukraine expert Winfried Schneider-Deters understands Moscow's position. "It is absolutely clear that the Russians are pushing for this. They want to cause unrest and divide the population during the election campaign," says Schneider-Deters, but he also adds that he does not understand what interest the Americans have in this. The journalist believes that Moscow's motives are "insidious" and recommends that the Zelensky government not succumb to potential pressure from Washington.
However, will Ukraine be able to stand up to its biggest ally and arms supplier? For now, Zelensky has avoided categorical statements and reiterated that Ukraine is ready to compromise and wants to hold elections, but certain conditions must be created for this purpose.
Former Secretary General of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Thomas Greminger warns against rushing into elections. "I think it is simply not possible to hold fair and free elections under these conditions," he says. After all, a large part of Ukrainian territories is under Russian control. Greminger recalls that "in general, the experience of holding elections too early is not good and instead of stability, they can lead to the exact opposite" - whether it's Africa, Asia or the Western Balkans.
The conditions for holding elections in Ukraine
John Herbst believes that if elections are held, there will be a danger not to democracy in Ukraine, but to the country's security. “There is no doubt that Russia will use this moment to strengthen its military positions." Therefore, elections will only be possible under certain conditions. According to the former diplomat, the most important of them are the supply of more weapons to Ukraine, the establishment of a demilitarized zone and the presence of European troops. If there is a "serious" ceasefire, elections are possible, Herbst says. But he points out that Moscow will not agree to any of the conditions.
Thomas Greminger believes that for the elections to be recognized as "free and fair" freedom of movement of voters and candidates, as well as a free media, are needed. But both are currently constrained by martial law. The OSCE could help by monitoring the elections, the former secretary-general of the organization says. But political stability in Ukraine is much more important, and the country is "very far from that". Elections would be possible at least six months after a stable ceasefire comes into force. That is why Greminger believes that the chances of holding elections this year are "minimal".
Winfried Schneider-Deters is of a similar opinion: "The country is at war, in which Ukraine's situation is not very good". Under these conditions, Kiev "has no reason to change the leader for whom over 70 percent of voters voted in 2019".