Mr. Neitzel, do you seriously think that the upcoming summer could be the last peaceful summer in Europe? And what exactly do you mean by that?
Sönke Neitzel: Yes, I am serious. But I did not say that this would definitely be the last peaceful summer. I said that this is a possible scenario - the worst possible scenario. Because nobody knows what Vladimir Putin wants and what he will do. Nobody can really predict the future - neither the intelligence services, nor the heads of state, nor can I. But there are possible scenarios.
If a bad peace agreement is reached on Ukraine, this will free Putin's hands for other actions. In addition, the large military exercises "West" have already been announced, which are to be held in Belarus in the fall of 2025. The whole background of the quote with which you started our conversation is precisely this - that my friends in Lithuania and the other Baltic states are very concerned about these maneuvers. Because we saw that similar maneuvers in 2021 preceded a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. I'm not saying that this will necessarily happen, but this is a possible scenario and we need to hurry up.
The whole debate that Russia may be ready to attack NATO in 2029 is a bit artificial. It is impossible to predict, but Putin, if he wants to, if he has such plans, will not wait for NATO to prepare for war. We need to realize this: we are not living in peacetime. At the NATO summit in Madrid in 2022, it was stated: now the Euro-Atlantic area does not live in peace. Especially in Germany, many people think that we still live in peacetime. But no, we do not. We are not at war, but in some kind of intermediate state. I think we need to prepare and act very quickly.
Has there ever been a similar threat in history, in European history?
Sönke Neitzel: If we go back to the First World War, the years before it broke out were filled with fears, with threats - the Germans against the Russians, the Russians against the Germans. And also many wondered if there would be a war. The great powers then also thought that there was a need for reforms, etc.
And if we take the period before World War II, we will see how the revisionist Hitler, Italy and Japan trampled on international law. The big question then was how the West should react to this. By this I mean that in the past we find different scenarios, but the problem is that modern times are simply different. They are not a copy of history. We cannot copy 1938 or 1939, nor 1914. So we have to find our own solution.
Do you see any rational explanation for Putin's actions at the moment?
Sönke Neitzel: Some people say that Putin is crazy, but I don't think that helps us in any way in this case. I think he has his own justification, which makes it very difficult for us, because we live by different rules – that international law must be respected, international borders must not be violated, etc. And for Putin, it seems that something else is important - that a country like Ukraine, which is increasingly becoming part of the West, is betting on democracy, etc., is a danger to its internal order.
And if we follow his speeches, but also other speeches - by Boris Yeltsin, for example, they contain this idea: We must expel the Americans from Europe, which must live under Russian "dominion". We do not want to annex European countries, but somehow there must be a Russian hegemony that replaces the American one.
That is exactly what this war is about - not only for Donbass or Ukraine. This is a clash between the West and Russia. And of course, the big question is: is there a way to stop all this? Could the war have been avoided? Whose fault is it, whose responsibility is it - NATO? Here Germany is very divided, more so than France and Britain.
We see what is happening in Ukraine right now. We also see that NATO is relying less and less on the United States, even Article Five of the Alliance's charter is being questioned. We see that Russia is preparing large-scale maneuvers in Belarus, while NATO is strengthening its eastern flank. And all this - against the backdrop of losses in the financial markets due to Trump's extremely destructive economic policy. What is actually happening and what can we expect this year?
Sönke Neitzel: All this is a huge challenge for the West and for Europeans, because we relied very heavily on the US for our own security. And now we are witnessing a realignment of the Western defense architecture. This will take some time, because this system is 75 years old. We do not know whether the US will actually withdraw from NATO. We do not know to what extent Trump is willing to adhere to Article Five of the Alliance's charter.
In the worst case, we could find ourselves in a state of war with Russia. And in the best case - peace in Ukraine, the US staying in Europe, the Europeans rearming and we have a decade of peace. Anything is possible, but now we are leaving the zone of stability and statesmen have to prove themselves as leaders, they have to be convinced of European unity.
As a historian, this reminds me of the "finest hour" - Churchill's famous speech. We must act now so that one day, when people look back on this moment in 2025, they can say that this was their finest hour.
A crisis is always an opportunity to change things and move things forward. And we Europeans must not only speak, but also move our defense forward.
Is Donald Trump right that the Arctic could be at the center of the conflict? Or where could the future conflict be?
Sönke Neitzel: We see that Russia has many options to attack NATO - in a hybrid war or in a conventional war. And the Arctic is just one possible scenario. For example, the situation around Spitsbergen, which is part of Norway. What will NATO do if Russia decides to send an airborne brigade there and say that this is now Russian territory? Will we kick them out or how will we react?
As far as I know, NATO headquarters is afraid of such scenarios. Many people in the Alliance and the intelligence services are convinced that Putin will put us to such a test - it could be in the Arctic, it could be somewhere else. He definitely wants to see if Article Five is really something that works. Then there is the inevitable question of whether we are really ready to kick the Russians out. So that is the problem. How Putin will act also depends on us, on what messages we send him.
How do you think the situation will develop further? Will we return to relative stability or will the escalation intensify?
Sönke Neitzel: I think Putin will continue to put us to the test in hybrid warfare. We have already seen damage to cables on the bottom of the Baltic Sea and in other places. And he will continue to test us. If there is no joint, firm response to this from our side, Putin will definitely continue. He will try to undermine our societies from within. Look at how this is already happening in Germany, France, Slovakia, Hungary and other countries.
For example, the following situation may arise - this autumn or later, a Russian brigade will cross the bridge, enter the Estonian city of Narva on the border with Russia and say that this is now Russian territory. What will be our reaction then? I think that our response to such provocations should be very clear, as during the Cold War: if you cross this line, you are at war with us. This kind of deterrence, in my opinion, is the best way to prevent war. Nobody in Europe wants war. But at the same time, we must clearly show that we do not want to live under Russian hegemony. And if Putin puts pressure on us, we must stand our ground. Then I think we will avoid war.
And then in the future there will be peace, but Europe has to rethink its concept of security. It is not the Americans who will do this. We are 500 million people, right? We have to do it ourselves. And that, you know, can only be achieved if we change the culture. The problem is that we do not have time.
I think that in Germany we have already seen progress, so we should not be too disappointed. Let us hope that the new government will give impetus to this process. Germany will move forward together with Warsaw, Paris, London, Rome, and in a few years we will have a united Europe, united in its defense, united in language towards Russia.
You recently published a book devoted mainly to the history of the modern German army, and in it you list many of the deficiencies of the Bundeswehr and what needs to be done at the moment. What will this require from a political point of view, but also from a societal point of view? What is the first task of the new government in this regard?
Sönke Neitzel: There is a widespread opinion in society that after the Second World War, Germans are pacifists. And that they are very reserved about their armed forces. This is partly true, but on the other hand it is not.
In my opinion, the majority of Germans after 1955 have always been for the Bundeswehr and for defense. However, if you follow the public discourse before 2022, you get the impression that Germans are pacifists, but it is actually more the cultural elite. And right now you can see how the cultural elite is adapting. And you can see this if you look at the Green Party. The Greens come from the peace movement, this pacifist party has changed dramatically.
In my book I argue that the Bundeswehr is still not functioning because it was created as a result of a long peaceful history, with very little combat experience. Now it is necessary to carry out reforms in the structures, in the personnel and in the way of thinking. And if Friedrich Merz is elected as the new German chancellor in May, he must understand: this is my task and I must push my cabinet colleagues, not just the defense minister, in this direction.
What will be the leadership requirement for Germany, which is after all the strongest economy in Europe, in these months and the coming years?
Sönke Neitzel: I think Germany must realize what role it has to play in NATO and in Europe. And in my opinion, the Bundeswehr must focus on the ground forces. We are traditionally a ground force. The others, the British and the French, can contribute more with their air force and navy, with their nuclear forces, with their special forces.
But Germany must make a huge contribution to the defense of NATO's eastern flank. So in my opinion, this should be the focus so that these units that are assigned to NATO can be ready for combat operations in the foreseeable future.
Author: Michaela Küfner