Against the backdrop of the recent mass protests by the opposition in major cities in Turkey, it is somewhat surprising that Trump set a tariff of 10% for Ankara. Especially if you compare it to the tariffs for countries, for example, in the region, which are between 33 -39%. Not to mention China with the already famous 145%.
Erdogan's country definitely felt like a winner from the new wave of protectionism and decided to strengthen its positions. Especially after the US President's statement, made during the visit of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to the White House, that "I have a very good relationship with a man named Erdogan, I know the press gets angry that I like him, but I love him, he loves me and we have never had any problems".
The government media in Ankara exploded in delight. Trump added that "Turkey has done what no one else could have done in Syria, and Erdogan is a very strong and intelligent man". Can anyone doubt that Turkey's operations in Syria, carried out through extreme radical Islamist groups, to overthrow Assad in Damascus, were not coordinated with Washington? Now he should have been "given his due".
Trump's statements were in response to Netanyahu's statements that "he has problems with Turkey in Syria" and that "he doesn't want Turkey to acquire military bases in Syria". Trump is convinced that "I can solve any problem you have with Turkey, as long as you are reasonable, and we should be reasonable on this issue". The issue is Syria. "I think we can solve this problem, but it's not a problem right now". Netanyahu is said to have continued with "we have deteriorated neighborly relations with Turkey and we don't want Syria to be used by anyone, including Turkey". The fears are that Turkey could use its military bases in Syria to attack Israel.
And since relations between Turkey and the US are “excellent”, and “President Trump has a relationship with the Turkish leader, we discussed how this conflict can be prevented in various ways”, Netanyahu said. It remains to be seen where Trump's balance will tilt regarding the problems between Ankara and Tel Aviv. But the decision to cancel the joint press conference between Trump and Netanyahu was commented on as “the meeting between the two countries was tense”.
For now, Hakan Fidan, Turkey's foreign minister, stated in an interview with the Iraqi channel UTV that “the military strategy that the Tel Aviv administration is pursuing in the region threatens not only the stability of Syria, but also the security of Israel itself”. He confirmed that "Israel's current policy in Syria is a policy of provocations." He believes that Tel Aviv's actions in Syria bring only short-term military benefits, but "create major strategic threats in the long term." Turkey had no intention of entering into conflict with anyone in Syria, including Israel, Fidan said. But Ankara cannot watch Syria undergo internal turmoil and will not be satisfied with just observing. "If there is an area of instability that will affect us, we will not remain silent. Steps will be taken."
That is probably why Ankara is reluctant to welcome the information that Trump announced during his meeting with Netanyahu that talks between Iran and the United States are coming up in Oman, which will undoubtedly include the Syria issue. It is not just Tehran's nuclear program. It does not matter whether these talks are direct or indirect, as Tehran wants. When asked about the names that will participate in the negotiations, a spokesman for the Turkish Foreign Ministry stated that “these are media estimates”. And the rumors are about the participation of Witkoff and the foreign minister of Iran.
The important thing is to avoid a situation in which the US and Iran are on the brink of all-out war, which is suggested by a number of Western observers. And whether Moscow was a behind-the-scenes mediator in organizing these talks is unlikely to be understood at this stage. Certainly, neither Russia nor Iran has any interest in new military clashes in the region. And Trump has not given up on the dream of being officially declared a peacemaker, for example by the Nobel Committee.
In this regard, it was somehow not noted that Ahmed Sharaa, the acting president of Syria, will visit Turkey for the second time after the meeting on February 4. Whatever Netanyahu says, Ankara will follow its strategy in relations with Syria and is unlikely to refuse to dictate the policy of those who took power in Damascus. And the claims that Sharaa has already committed to providing Ankara with the air base near Palmyra, Central Syria, are not without foundation. This way, Turkey will control the entire airspace of Syria.
Let Moscow think about it with its two military bases on the Mediterranean coast of Syria. And the Syrian Kurds, who are in a complicated situation regarding asserting their own autonomy in Syria. Ankara will oppose it tooth and nail, because the domino effect is a well-known practice in world history. It is also unclear whether the American umbrella over the Syrian Kurds will still remain open. This card with the Kurds is a good trump card in the game of geopolitical players in the Middle East. And for Turkey, it is a stone in the shoe with its more than 20 million Turkish Kurds.
This is one of the reasons why Erdogan has recently activated relations with the pro-Kurdish parliamentaryly represented Peoples' Democratic Party, to meet with its representatives, to promise the release of the classic Kurdish leader Öcalan from Imrali prison, where he has been held for more than 20 years, to adopt the Kurdish Nowruz as an official holiday and to refine the tone towards the Kurds in his country. Attracting them to the side of Erdogan's ruling AKP, the Justice and Development Party, will be especially useful in the situation created by the protests in Turkey after the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Imamoglu. He became mayor with the active support of Turkish Kurds, residents of Istanbul. And the upcoming presidential elections, whenever they are, can hardly be considered problem-free for Erdogan at this stage.
It is curious that at a time of tension in Turkey after the arrest of Imamoglu, the subsequent mass, mainly youth protests, and the unenviable state of the economy in the country, Ankara does not forget its interests outside the country. Jones, one of the popular and valued Austrian fashion clothing brands, has ceased operations after 53 years on the Austrian market. Its 30 stores are due to close in a month or two. But their ownership, they say, will pass to the Turkish CEMSEL. After the aristocratic hotel “Imperial” This purchase is particularly interesting.
Just an example of how a role and influence is ensured even in countries like Austria. Separately, there are thousands of ethnic Turks who are citizens of Mozart's country. And they even provoke debates among the Austrian public about how to deal with students from this ethnic group who do not eat all day during Ramadan and are unable to be adequate in their studies.
After the events in Syria with the removal of Assad from power, for which Moscow stated that it received a “stab in the back” from Turkey, the question remained unanswered as to why or against what the next meeting of the American and Russian delegations is being held in Istanbul. This time at the Consulate General of Russia in the metropolis. The Russian delegation is led by the new Russian Ambassador to Washington Alexander Darchiev. The US delegation is led by Sonata Coulter, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Russia and Central Europe at the State Department. The first meeting of the two delegations was in Istanbul on February 27 at the residence of the US Consulate General, Arnautkoy, and lasted nearly 6.5 hours.
The topics discussed are the restoration and normalization of bilateral relations. And despite the fact that the negotiations that have begun between Washington and Moscow to resolve the conflict in Ukraine are defined by “one step forward, two steps back”, it is clear that the era of diplomacy is returning with the talks in Riyadh and Istanbul. Laconic reports inform that they agreed to normalize the activities of embassies, the movement of diplomats, obtaining visas, financial restrictions and easing travel conditions. There is no problem with the restoration of direct flights between Russia and the US, but Ukraine is not on the agenda.
This will definitely be a topic for dialogue in a different composition and at a future time. Kiril Dimitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, after his return from the US did not hide that “there are still enemies of Russia in the American government. Many countries are trying to thwart the attempt at dialogue. The deep state is in place”. But still, one step has been taken. It is being determined where Washington's interests meet Russia's interests, and Turkey claims that “remains committed both to its contribution to peace and to hosting the negotiations”. At least, they say, they were respectful.
Erdogan is again in the role of mediator, although he is not at the negotiating table at the Consulate General of Russia. He has other concerns. It is enough to see the thousands of protesters in Şişli, the center of the European part of Istanbul, where our Exarchate is located. In the past, this was one of the most prestigious neighborhoods of the city with the most luxurious shops. Every Wednesday, a different neighborhood in Turkey's largest city will host rallies by the opposition HDP. And Imamoglu's call to Erdogan from Silivri prison is "I challenge you to a race." It will truly be a "race" of life and death. Whenever it is.