Recent Ukrainian successes are clearly only slight pinpricks in the background of the massive Russian pressure on the front in Ukraine. Experts make gloomy forecasts of retreat and a very real risk of losing Ukraine.
A Ukrainian artillery officer described the situation at the front as dramatic. Without new supplies of ammunition from the USA, the front is doomed to failure, and the only way out for the Ukrainians will be retreat, he claims.
The artillery officer on Ukraine's eastern front gives a categorical assessment: “If there is no ammunition for the artillery, every front is doomed to failure,” he said in an interview with DV. His predictions for the development of the situation on the front are gloomy in view of the lack of ammunition. The officer in command of the artillery unit wishes to remain anonymous. His rank, name and exact position are known to DV.
Russia is firing with all its might
"Our losses will mount as it is not possible to respond adequately to enemy fire. However, the Russian aggressors are firing with all their might: the Ukrainian soldiers are exposed to powerful artillery fire. Russian warplanes attack Ukrainian positions with remote-controlled bombs that they can detonate from a safe distance – far beyond the range of Ukrainian air defenses, which are already inadequate,” says the officer.
„One day we will find ourselves in a situation where no one will be able to defend the front because everyone will either be dead or wounded,” he says and makes a prediction: “The result will be a loss in positions and a collapsing front“.
The Russians have captured an area the size of Detroit
This description of the situation on the Ukrainian front coincides with the assessments of the latest analysis of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW). According to them, the Russian aggressors are advancing “slowly but steadily along several sections of the front”.
According to ISW calculations, since the beginning of the year, the Russian armed forces have conquered "more than 360 square km - an area the size of Detroit – it is the largest city in the US state of Michigan, according to an institute analysis from mid-April.
The danger of Ukraine losing against Putin's attacking troops has never been greater than now - especially if Kiev does not receive significant supplies of arms and ammunition from Western countries supporting Ukraine. CIA Director Bill Burns and Christopher Cavoli, commander of US forces in Europe, made this clear in mid-April.
"Real risk that Ukrainians will lose by the end of 2024"
"There is a very real risk that the Ukrainians will lose the battlefield by the end of 2024, or at least that Putin will find himself in a position from which he can dictate the terms of a political solution,'' Burns said during a speech in Washington. reported a number of American media.
The deciding factor is clearly whether the US will quickly deliver aid. This would give Ukraine a good chance to "stop the Russian attacks" in 2024. The fact that CIA chief Burns spoke of "containment" speaks to the hope that, in the long term, Ukraine will be able to develop its defense industry to the point where it can defend itself and create an effective air force with western aid. From 2023, Ukrainian pilots are trained to use American F-16 fighter jets.
However, it turns out that training takes much longer than NATO military experts had anticipated. The commander of US forces in Europe, Christopher Cavoli, recently said during a visit to Washington that Ukrainian pilots often do not speak English.
Gloomy picture
Like CIA chief Burns, Cavoli paints a grim picture of the situation of Ukrainians on the front. "I can't predict the future, but I can do simple math," said the top general who commands US forces in Europe (EUCOM). "My experience of over 37 years in the US military is that if one side fires and the other can't fire back, the side that can't fire back ultimately loses."
It is true that in mid-April Ukraine managed to shoot down a Russian Tupolev TU-22M supersonic bomber for the first time. In addition, radar sites on the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula, which Moscow uses to organize supplies for its troops in southern Ukraine, were hit again. But all these successes are clearly like slight pinpricks against the background of the massive pressure exerted by the Russians on the front and from the air.
German expert on security and the problems of Ukraine Nico Lange recently wrote in his analysis that Ukraine "cannot hold the front line in the east, but can only delay the Russian attack".