The US still maintains some restrictions for strikes with American weapons on Russian territory, but in Crimea the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) do not have such restrictions and there is no need to fight "with one hand behind their backs", writes the British magazine The Economist. The editors assure that Ukraine will gradually begins to defeat Russia in the battle for the peninsula, quoted by Focus.
Former commander of US forces in Europe General Ben Hodges notes that Russia views Crimea as an "unsinkable aircraft carrier” and invested significant resources in developing the military infrastructure there during the occupation. Now she is at risk.
British strategist Laurence Friedman adds that a major Ukrainian amphibious operation in Crimea, in the style of the Allied landing in France in 1944, is still unthinkable. But Crimea is Russia's weak point in terms of air threats. There are too many assets on the peninsula to defend and this is the best way for Ukraine to put real pressure on Moscow.
"The Ukrainian campaign is a mixture of military and political strategy. Politically, it is Russia's most important asset, but it is also very vulnerable”, agrees the former adviser to the German Ministry of Defense Nico Lange.
Analysts say Ukraine's goal is to isolate Crimea, push Russian air and naval forces away from southern Ukraine and "strangle” the peninsula as a logistics center. And in this, the Ukrainians are helped by an arsenal of Storm Shadow and SCALP cruise missiles, as well as their own unmanned cutters and other drones. American ATACMS ballistic missiles were recently added to them.
Thanks to the systematic attacks, Ukraine has already managed to expel most of the Russian Black Sea fleet from Crimea, is steadily degrading Russian air defenses on the peninsula and is striking air bases from which Moscow's warplanes take off.
It is important that the vaunted and very expensive S-400 air defense system turned out to be not particularly effective, the publication emphasizes. Combined attacks using decoy drones and ATACMS missiles have already cost the Russians several such systems. Each S-400 battery costs approximately $200 million and is not easy to replace.
According to General Hodges, the occupiers "have nowhere to hide” in Crimea: there is satellite and aerial reconnaissance, as well as a network of informants. Therefore, nothing can move in Crimea without the knowledge of Ukrainians.
General Hodges is convinced that the Ukrainians will "destroy the Kerch Bridge when they are ready”. A potentially bigger problem, however, will be the construction of a new railway line running from Rostov through the southern Ukrainian cities of Mariupol and Berdyansk to Crimea.
The representative of the Southern Military Command of Ukraine, Dmitry Pletenchuk, says: "The railway line along the land corridor is an admission by the Russian occupiers that the Crimean (Kerchen) bridge is doomed. They realize that sooner or later they will have problems“.