DV: GERB, as expected, won the most votes in these elections - this is no surprise to anyone. However, is there any surprise?
Johanna Daimel: GERB really managed to prove itself this time as well, relying on a stable electoral potential. Together with DPS, which is experiencing slight growth, GERB is among the parties that can count on their solid cores and are an integral part of the party landscape. Through the "conquered state" and their oligarchic networks, the two parties seem to have penetrated the country so deeply, right down to the local structures, that they can demand the loyalty of their people in places every time.
The surprise of these elections is that if we gather the votes of the Russia-friendly parties - the far-right "Vazrazhdane", BSP and the now catapulted into the parliament "Velichie" party; - these three formations de facto win about a third of the votes. Thus, President Rumen Radev, who is a staunch opponent of military aid to Ukraine, receives support in the National Assembly for his position regarding Russia's war against Ukraine.
DV: Are PP-DB now reaping the fruits of their cooperation with GERB?
Johanna Daimel: The pressure generated by the expectations resulting from the PP-DB's promise to end this status quo of the "mafia state" (per "Politico") and initiate fundamental change. If I have to express myself positively - by agreeing to this coalition model with GERB, they tried to put an end to the permanent political crisis. For example, they managed to limit the rights of the president in appointing caretaker governments. However, their cardinal mistake was that they also included DPS in order to push their maximum demands - constitutional reform and reform of the judicial system. The other big mistake was that there was no coalition agreement signed. This allowed Boyko Borisov and Delyan Peevski to continue to pull the strings and eventually play PP-DB. For their constituents, it was a huge disappointment.
DV: PP-DB have already announced that they will withdraw into opposition. However, what if they are tempted to enter into agreements with Borisov again?
Johanna Daimel: A new cooperation with GERB would be tantamount to harakiri for PP-DB. The coalition must now go into opposition. In my opinion, this is even their responsibility, in order not to disavow the political system even more in the eyes of the Bulgarian citizens. Bulgaria needs a strong pro-European voice in the parliament, which is committed to the democratic rule of law. I very much hope that they are aware of this and that we will not witness processes of disintegration. Now the PP-DB must come together even more, muster forces and develop a clear, executable program that will lead to recognizable results in the medium and long term - even if it is in small steps. Being a constructive opposition is an extremely important task in democratic parliamentarism. Especially now.
DV: How will you comment on the results of "Revival" and ITN and how do you explain the ranking of party "Greatness"?
Johanna Daimel: Pro-Russian influences have done their job well. "Revival" it didn't put on much weight and that's the good news. And the fact that Slavi Trifonov will be in the parliament again is probably also due to the low voter turnout. The fact that President Rumen Radev gave the ITN a mandate to form a government, although without any chance of success, also "ennobled" Slavi Trifonov as part of the political system and made him look electable.
The electoral success of "Majesty" however, it is a very alarming sign. First, a local and rather strange political formation, which even has established paramilitary structures, managed to break the four percent barrier from zero - without campaigning in the public media. Relying entirely on social media, this formation has virtually remained under the radar of public discourse. This is very disturbing.
Secondly, the fact that Nikolay Markov openly serves pro-Russian narratives and clearly declares himself against the EU and NATO is very worrying. This means that another servant of Moscow will enter the parliament.
And thirdly, the Kremlin will be satisfied with the fact that Markov practically stands by Rumen Radev, from whom he was awarded, despite the data on the illegal financing of the Historical Park. The tentacles from Moscow are getting more and more inventive.
DV: Will it be difficult to form a new government and is an expert cabinet an option?
Johanna Daimel: It will be very difficult to form a government. In addition to the fact that a GERB and DPS administration would cause major nationwide protests, GERB would also need a third party to gather more than 121 deputies. This would bring ITN back into the game and return Bulgaria to the status quo - if the coalition partners agree on the money and, above all, on the posts they will have to allocate. However, I believe that neither Boyko Borisov (due to serious suspicions of corruption) nor Delyan Peevski (sanctioned under "Magnitsky") can be considered eligible for prime minister or deputy prime minister - both domestically and internationally.
Furthermore, the parliament is further fragmented, which definitely does not contribute to political stability. And an "expert government" would look at first glance like a transitional government acting in the interest of the country, but in reality the real puppeteers - GERB and DPS - would continue to pull the strings without having to advertise themselves openly. This increases the probability that in the autumn or winter of 2024 there will be new, seventh elections in a row in Bulgaria.
DV: Voter turnout is the lowest of the changes so far. Is Bulgaria headed for a crisis of democracy?
Johanna Daimel: The erosion of political culture forced by the oligarchic "conquered state" over the past 30 years, has had a highly depressing effect. Whoever is called to the polls six times in three years, without seeing any real change, is disappointed and stays at home. Like in the movie "Enchanted Day", where everything repeats itself and there is no way out of this vicious circle. And the low voter turnout benefits political forces like "Greatness" because the fewer the votes cast, the more significant their result. Disappointment is great and opens new spaces for anti-democratic forces that work for authoritarian rule, for anti-European and openly pro-Russian illiberal democracy a la Orbán. In Germany we also have a far-right party - "Alternative for Germany" became the second force in the European elections. The erosion of democracy is spreading across Europe.
DV: Under these circumstances, is the emergence of a new political entity in Bulgaria imminent - for example, after the end of President Rumen Radev's mandate?
Johanna Daimel: Personally, I do not see a new political player. We know that Boyko Borisov would very much like to become president. And in view of GERB's results in these elections, he can definitely have hopes.
Author: Emilian Lilov