Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to use nuclear threats in campaign to stop further - the further support of the West for Ukraine. During a speech to graduating Russian officers on June 21, he stated that Russia plans to further develop its nuclear triad as a "guarantee of strategic deterrence" and to maintain the balance of power in the world.
Russia is also working to increase its conventional defense industrial production. Putin said during a press conference in Vietnam on June 20 that Russia was considering "lowering the threshold" for nuclear use in Russian nuclear doctrine. A possible future strategic defeat of Russian forces on the battlefield in Ukraine would lead to the "end of Russian statehood".
Putin may have manipulatively equated the Russian defeat in Ukraine with an existential threat to the Russian state in order to invoke an "exceptional case" in which existing Russian nuclear doctrine would allow the use of nuclear weapons.
This is stated in the daily analysis of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
ISW continues to believe that the threat of nuclear escalation is a fundamental aspect of Russia's ability to manipulate foreign decision makers and is highly unlikely to lead to actual nuclear escalation due to nuclear and conventional deterrence.
Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov continued to highlight Russia's initiative to create an alternative "Eurasian security architecture," possibly as part of ongoing efforts to create a coalition of friendly states to act as an alternative to the West and to undermine NATO. On June 21, Putin reiterated his intention to create "equal and indivisible security in Eurasia".
Putin said Russia is ready to discuss Eurasian security issues with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and BRICS, and said Russia is ready to lead discussions with countries in Europe and NATO, "when they are ready". Lavrov similarly emphasized Russia's efforts to form a "Eurasian security architecture to replace the Euro-Atlantic security system" at the meeting of foreign ministers of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) on June 21 in Almaty, Kazakhstan.
Lavrov further encouraged the need for joint efforts to create a new Eurasian security architecture and coordination with other unspecified multilateral organizations on the Eurasian continent.
He is likely referring to Russian efforts to increase cooperation with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), as Putin signaled his interest in developing relations with ASEAN during his June 20 state visit to Vietnam. Putin notably included Vietnam - a country not usually included in political conceptions of Eurasia - in addition to North Korea in his proposed formation of a new Eurasian security system.
Putin first laid the groundwork for this Eurasian security structure during his visit to the People's Republic of China (PRC) in May 2024, before proposing it in a June 14 speech in which he claimed "the Euro-Atlantic Security System" is collapsing and that Western "schemes for security and prosperity in Europe are not working".
ISW continues to assess that Putin and other senior Russian officials are likely to continue to step up their efforts to create a coalition of states that Putin could use to present himself as an alternative to NATO, while supporting current information Kremlin operations to misrepresent Western countries as Ukraine's only supporters.
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) criticized the objections of South Korea and Japan to the Russian-North Korean strategic partnership agreement and directly linked the agreement to Russian President Vladimir Putin's "Eurasian Security Architecture" initiative. South Korea's Yonhap news agency reported on June 21 that Seoul may send 155mm artillery shells and unspecified air defense systems to Ukraine, after South Korean National Security Director Chang Ho-jin said on June 20 that South Korea would respond to the Russian-North Korean agreement by revising its policy preventing aid from being sent to Ukraine.
South Korea's foreign ministry summoned Russian ambassador to the country Georgy Zinoviev on June 21 to urge Russia to end its military cooperation with North Korea.
Zinoviev accused South Korea of trying to "threaten and blackmail" Russia and insisted that Russia's cooperation with North Korea is not directed against any other country. He argued that Russian-North Korean cooperation helps to strengthen the stability of the Korean Peninsula.
The director of the third department for Asia of the Russian MFA, Lyudmila Vorobeva, met on June 21 with the director of the European department of the Japanese MFA, Masashi Nakagome, after the introduction of a new round of Japanese sanctions aimed at Russia.
The Russian Foreign Ministry claims that the Japanese sanctions are "the next step towards the total destruction" of Russo-Japanese relations, which he claims are at an all-time low. Russia will respond to the sanctions with "severe and painful countermeasures". He responded to Nakagome's protests about the Russia-North Korea strategic partnership by outlining Putin's June 14 initiative to create a "new continent-wide security architecture" in Eurasia.
Ukrainian forces struck oil refineries and military targets in Bryansk and Astrakhan regions, Krasnodar Krai and occupied Crimea on the night of June 20-21. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on June 21 that Ukrainian drones attacked the Afipsky, Ilsky and Krasnodar oil refineries in Krasnodar Krai and the Astrakhan oil refinery in Astrakhan Oblast, and struck unspecified Russian radars and electronic warfare stations in Bryansk Oblast and occupied Crimea in the night of June 20-21 and that Ukrainian forces are still assessing the damage on the battlefield.
Ukraine's General Staff said they also struck a Shahed-136/131 warehouse, military training facilities and several drone communications and control points in the Krasnodar region. The operational headquarters of the Krasnodar region reported that Ukrainian drones struck unspecified targets in the Temryuk and Eysky regions and the Ilsky oil refinery in the Seversky region, and that debris from a Ukrainian drone fell near Volna.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claims that six Ukrainian naval drones were destroyed in the Black Sea, 70 drones over Crimea and 43 drones over the Krasnodar Territory on the night of June 20-21.
Russian bloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces shot down the drones in several waves on the evening of June 20, and warned that Ukrainian forces may carry out more large-scale drone strikes in the near future.
Moscow State University (MSU) announced on June 21 that it has opened admissions for a master's program in "strategic communications, information and hybrid warfare" under the leadership of the Russian ultranationalist and former deputy of the State Duma Zakhar Prilepin and other elected deputies of the Duma.
MSU admitted its first batch of students to this program in 2022, but later reportedly ended the program in December 2023 due to financial issues.
MSU's announcement of June 21, however, suggests that the university was able to restart the program under the supervision of prominent ultranationalist voices such as Prilepin. ISW previously noted that the master's program was likely designed to reinforce the ideology behind the war in Ukraine.