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ISW: Kremlin maintains false notions of order and stability

Russian bloggers have slammed local officials who were aware of growing extremism, as well as Dagestan's youth policy for allegedly endorsing dubious mixed martial arts clubs

Jun 26, 2024 11:18 153

ISW: Kremlin maintains false notions of order and stability  - 1

The International Criminal Court ( ICC) and the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) confirmed war crimes and human rights violations in Ukraine committed by Russia. Pre-Trial Chamber II of the ICC issued arrest warrants for the former Russian Minister of Defense and current Secretary of the Security Council Sergey Shoigu and the Chief of the Russian General Staff General Valery Gerasimov for the "war crime against civilian objects" in Ukraine.

This is stated in the daily analysis of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The ICC noted that there was evidence to hold the two individually responsible for violations of the Rome Statute.

The ECHR Grand Chamber also ruled on June 25 that Russia has committed various human rights violations in Crimea since its illegal occupation of the peninsula began in February 2014.

The ECtHR found that Russian officials and forces in Crimea committed numerous violations of the European Convention on Human Rights, including violations of the right to life, the prohibition of inhuman or degrading treatment, the right to liberty and security, the right not to be punished without law, the right to respect for private and family life, the right to freedom of religion, the right to freedom of expression, the right to freedom of assembly, the right to property, the right to education and the right to free movement, among other violations of the rights of the person. The decision emphasized that the evidence that the Ukrainian government provided to the court was of systematic such violations committed by Russia in Crimea.

The ruling is the first in an international legal body to recognize such violations by Russia over a period spanning more than a decade in occupied Crimea. We remind you that Russia annexed Crimea in 2014.

Russia and Venezuela have signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at countering "coercive measures", likely to show the West that the Kremlin has influence in the Western Hemisphere. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Venezuelan Foreign Minister Ivan Gil met on June 11 during the BRICS summit and signed the memorandum of understanding.

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) presented it as an intention for a joint strategy to combat "unilateral coercive measures" through information channels and diplomatic means. Both Venezuela and Russia were unusually tight-lipped about the details of the document.

The Venezuelan Foreign Ministry announced the memorandum of understanding on its social media accounts on June 11 but deleted the message from its official website, and the Russian Foreign Ministry announced the initial Lavrov-Gill meeting on June 11 but did not announce the memorandum until June 25.< /p>

This Russian-Venezuelan memorandum follows a visit to a Russian naval port and military exercises near Havana, Cuba on June 12-17, after which it was rumored that the Russian fleet would stop in Venezuela.

The Kremlin has recently shown its interest in expanding cooperation with Venezuela and may intend with this new memorandum of understanding to convey Russian narratives of a new multipolar world to a country that does not identify with the Russian world or an alternative "Eurasian security project" rhetorical lines.

Ukrainian forces carried out a drone strike on a Russian ammunition depot in Voronezh Oblast on June 25 and recently struck Pantsir-S1 air defense systems in Belgorod Oblast with an unspecified weapon. The General Directorate of Military Intelligence of Ukraine (GUR) announced on June 25 that it had struck a field ammunition depot in the Voronezh region.

Russia imposed counter-sanctions on 81 European Union (EU)-based news outlets on June 25, following EU sanctions on four Russian state news outlets on June 24.

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) announced that it had blocked access to EU-based media, including: Germany's Der Spiegel and Die Welt; Berlingske in Denmark; Spain's El Mundo, El Pais and EFE; the Italian La Repubblica; the Polish Belsat; the French Le Monde, Radio France and Agence France-Presse (AFP); EER and Delfi of Estonia; the European version of Politico, the Svoboda satellite package and the EU Observer.

These sanctions are in response to a similar measure for RIA Novosti, Rossiyskaya Gazeta and Izvestia.

The head of the Republic of Dagestan, Sergey Melikov, has ordered an investigation into the personal files of senior officials following the suspected June 23 terrorist attacks. It shows that the Kremlin may step up its fight against Islamic extremist threats in the North Caucasus while trying to maintain a facade of stability and normalcy. Melikov said in an address to the National Assembly of Dagestan on June 25 that he had ordered an inspection of the personal files of "everyone who holds leadership positions in Dagestan, including members of the National Assembly.

Melikov fired the head of Dagestan's Sergokalinsky district, Magomed Omarov, on June 24 after Russian sources said two of his sons were identified as two of the Makhachkala attackers, whom Russian law enforcement agencies killed during the attack.

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Russian security services announced on June 25 that they had detained Omarov, and Russian law enforcement agencies said he could be charged with aiding terrorists.

A Russian insider says the Kremlin is "re-examining its approach" and "raises more questions" regarding Melikov, who has not yet curbed the "growing radical sentiments among Dagestani youth" after the Dagestan incident of June 23 terrorist attacks.

Russian bloggers have slammed local officials who have been aware of growing extremism, as well as Dagestan's youth policy for allegedly endorsing dubious mixed martial arts clubs. Their outrage is a tacit admission that they do not support the Kremlin's attempts to link the June 23 terrorist attacks in Dagestan to outside powers, such as Ukraine or the West.

On June 25, the European Union (EU) officially started negotiations for the accession of Ukraine and Moldova. Belgian Foreign Minister Hadja Labib also noted that the EU Council approved the draft joint security agreement in addition to opening accession negotiations.

Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan met with Lithuanian-based Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya on June 20 in Vilnius. This is happening against the backdrop of deteriorating Armenian-Belarusian relations. Armenian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Ani Badalyan posted photos of the meeting on X (formerly Twitter) on June 20. Tikhanovskaya's press office reported that she and Mirzoyan discussed cooperation between the "democratic forces of Belarus" and the government, parliament and civil society of Armenia."

The opposition leader also said that the peoples of Armenia and Belarus "deserve a free, democratic and European future". The Armenian MFA's decision to publicize the meeting is a public indication of Armenian outrage at Belarus' actions. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on May 22 directly accused Belarus of helping Azerbaijan prepare for the Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said during his state visit to Azerbaijan in May 2024 that he and his counterpart from Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev have talked in 2020 war and concluded that Azerbaijan can win.

Politico reported on June 13, citing leaked documents, that Belarus provided Azerbaijan with weapons between 2018 and 2022 that were used in recent conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh and against Armenia.