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ISW: Russian disinformation campaigns do not absolve responsibility for Kiev strikes

Russian officials tried to deflect responsibility for the strike on the children's hospital with false claims about missiles and the condition of the hospital, but all this contradicts the available evidence

Jul 9, 2024 18:33 145

ISW: Russian disinformation campaigns do not absolve responsibility for Kiev strikes  - 1

Russian Wing an X-101 missile hit the "Okhmatdit" children's hospital; in central Kyiv during a massive series of missile strikes targeting critical Ukrainian infrastructure throughout the day on July 8. Ukrainian Air Force Commander Lt. Gen. Mykola Oleschuk said Russian forces conducted two rounds of combined missile strikes on July 8 — first four Kh-101 cruise missiles from Saratov Oblast and two Iskander-M ballistic missiles from occupied Crimea and Kursk Oblast on the night of 7 vs 8 July, and then a second wave of rockets.

Ukrainian air defenses downed two X-101s during the first wave and one X-47, three Iskanders, 11 X-101s, 12 Kalibr and three X-59/69s during the second wave.

This is written in the new report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russian forces attacked residential and other civilian infrastructure in the cities of Kyiv, Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.

Ukraine's Ministry of Internal Affairs has confirmed 22 dead and 74 injured in the city of Kyiv and 11 dead and 64 injured in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast at the time of this publication.

Zelensky announced that Ukraine is calling an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) in response to these Russian strikes. Russia currently chairs the Council.

Russian officials and media actors have tried to deflect responsibility for the strike on the children's hospital with false claims about missiles and the condition of the hospital - all of which contradict the available evidence.

Ukraine's Counter-Disinformation Center warned on July 9 that Russian propaganda was spreading lies -- such as that Ukraine used part or all of a hospital to treat wounded Ukrainian soldiers and store missiles, and that Ukrainian air defense missiles hit the hospital.

These actions will not absolve Russian forces of legal or moral responsibility for their strikes against Ukraine, even if true. Russian information operations falsely portraying "Okhmatdit" as partly or wholly a military hospital, falsely suggest that such a hospital is inherently a legitimate military objective. Children's hospital "Ohmatdit" is not a military hospital - it is the largest multidisciplinary children's hospital in Ukraine and treats up to 18,000 children a year.

Article 19 of the Geneva Convention, to which Russia is a signatory, relating to the protection of civilians in time of war, states that international legal protection of civilian hospitals does not end unless the hospital takes "acts injurious to the enemy" , and Article 19 expressly excludes the presence of sick or wounded military personnel as an act "injurious to the enemy".

Article 19 also states that "the enemy" should give warning before attacking one suspicious of him, and there is no evidence that this particular hospital was an immediate threat to Russian forces.

The July 8 Russian missile strikes likely used a new tactic to maximize the damage of such series of strikes. Former Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Col. Yury Ignat said after the July 8 strikes that Russian forces were constantly improving their reconnaissance and strike drone capabilities and the effectiveness of both cruise and ballistic missiles, noting that at the time of the July 8 strike July Russian cruise missiles flew over " extremely low" heights.

Ignat noted that in some cases Ukrainian air defense forces had to try to intercept cruise missiles flying 50 meters above the ground.

Ignat noted that Russian forces are technically manipulating the drones until the last possible moment to prevent detection by Ukrainian forces.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Chinese President Xi Jinping continued to present themselves as potential mediators to end the war in Ukraine during a July 8 meeting in Beijing, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin's rejection of serious talks or any to be a third party mediation. Orban called China a "key power" in creating conditions for peace and stated that Hungary highly values his peace initiative.

Xi said the international community should support direct talks between Russia and Ukraine and that other unspecified major world powers should use "positive energy, not negative energy" to support a ceasefire as soon as possible.

Xi also said that China and Hungary share the same basic proposals to end the war. Orbán and Xi are likely trying to mutually reinforce their efforts to portray Hungary and the PRC as neutral mediators despite Orbán's consistent efforts to oppose and undermine European Union (EU) support for Ukraine and growing evidence that China is supporting Russia's military efforts through providing Russia with dual-use goods and unconfirmed reports of joint production of munitions.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky answered a question at a press conference on July 8 about whether Hungary could serve as a mediator to end the war. He stated that only serious and strong alliances can stop the war and that Putin shows no interest in ending the war.

Zelensky also noted that countries with strong economies that influence Russia's economy and countries with militaries that threaten the Russian military - such as the US, China and the entire EU - could lead international mediation efforts and put pressure on Russia.

Putin rejected Russian involvement in possible ceasefire negotiations, denied any interest in a ceasefire altogether, and demanded Ukrainian capitulation through "demilitarization" and handing over significant territory that Russia does not currently occupy on July 4 and 5.

Russian Vice Admiral Sergei Lipilin replaced Vice Admiral Vladimir Vorobyov as commander of the Russian Baltic Fleet. The Russian military officially introduced Lipilin as commander of the Baltic Fleet at a ceremony for the Russian Navy in Kronstadt in St. Petersburg on July 8.

Lipilin was previously Chief of Staff of the Baltic Fleet and First Deputy Commander from 2021, and Vorobyov is now Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy.

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) said on July 8 that a May 2024 comment by an ISW Russia analyst published in the Telegraph was unsubstantiated.

The assessment was a brief presentation of extensive and well-documented research published by ISW on the Russian occupation of Ukraine and the project to destroy Ukrainian statehood by genocidal means.

ISW stands by its assessments, including those presented in the Telegraph article.