Germany, France and the US announced on September 25 and 26 several packages of longer-term aid to Ukraine, writes the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The German development ministry announced on September 25 that it will provide energy aid this winter worth a total of around 70 million euros to the settlements most affected by the heavy Russian strikes. The German Bundestag also announced on September 25 another €400 million in military funding for Ukraine to enable the purchase of additional air defense systems, tanks, drones, ammunition and spare parts.
French President Emmanuel Macron said during a meeting with Zelensky on September 25 that France would fully train and equip a Ukrainian brigade in the "near future".
The US Department of Defense announced on September 25 that the Pentagon will send an additional package of military aid to Ukraine worth approximately $375 million, and that the package will include: air-to-ground munitions; HIMARS ammunition; 155 mm and 105 mm artillery ammunition; Tube-launched, optically tracked, guided-by-wire (TOW) missiles; Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems; M1117 armored security vehicles; Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles (MRAP); light tactical vehicles; armored bridge systems; small arms, patrol boats; demolition equipment and ammunition; and other miscellaneous equipment and support materials.
US President Joe Biden announced on September 26 that he has ordered the Department of Defense to allocate all remaining funding for security assistance to Ukraine (about $8 billion) through the end of his presidency.
Biden said the Defense Department will also announce an additional $2.4 billion aid package to provide air defense systems, unmanned aerial systems and air-to-ground munitions; strengthening Ukraine's defense industry; and support.
Biden also announced that the US would provide Ukraine with ammunition; additional Patriot missiles and F-16 training for 18 Ukrainian pilots in 2025. Biden noted that he would also convene a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in October 2024 to coordinate further Western support for Ukraine .
Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) has struggled to coordinate combat missions with the Russian military, despite overseeing the counter-terrorist operation against the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast. The exiled Russian opposition publication Novaya Gazeta Europe reported on September 25 that it had identified an FSB Spetsnaz officer who died fighting in the Kursk region in August 2024 — confirming that FSB Spetsnaz elements are fighting in the Kursk region.
Putin assigned the FSB to conduct an anti-terrorist operation in the Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk regions on August 9 following the start of the Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region on August 6, but then continued to assign overlapping tasks to the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD). , FSB and Rosgvardia.
The Kremlin and the Russian military command have struggled to create a cohesive and effective command and control structure since Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast, but it remains unclear what responsibilities fall under the FSB's anti-terrorist operation or the MoD's Coordination Council.
ISW previously assessed that friction between the FBS and MoD is likely to continue.
Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov continued to launch rhetoric threatening the West with nuclear escalation after Putin again tried to use announced changes to Russian nuclear doctrine on September 25. to influence Western decision-making. ISW has long characterized Russian nuclear threats as part of the Kremlin's efforts to encourage Western deterrence, not as an indication of Russia's readiness to use nuclear weapons, and it is highly unlikely that Russia will use nuclear weapons in Ukraine or elsewhere.
Russian officials continue to accuse the West of violating human rights to distract from their own violations in this area. On September 26, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) published a report alleging that Denmark, Canada, Norway, the United States, Finland, Sweden, Australia, New Zealand and Japan are actively violating the rights of indigenous peoples. The MFA regularly publishes reports accusing Western countries of violating human rights, but the emphasis on indigenous peoples is likely intended to support the Kremlin's efforts to portray Russia as a harmonious multi-ethnic country despite growing anti-immigrant and ultra-nationalist sentiment in Russia.
The Russian government plans to designate more than 200 takeoff and landing zones for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), including at small Russian airports, over the next six years. Russia's state-run business publication Vedomosti, citing a federal project titled "Infrastructure development, security assurance and formation of a specialized system for the certification of unmanned aerial vehicles", reports that Russia is seeking to create 241 acceptance zones and operation of unmanned aerial vehicles, of which 49 will be created at Russian airports. The project is a plan until 2030, for which, according to "Vedomosti", Russia has allocated about 5 billion rubles (almost 54 million dollars) from the federal budget. The Russian government has approved this project at the end of 2023, and in August 2023 "Vedomosti" estimates that completing the entire project by 2030 will cost 900 billion rubles ($9.7 billion).
Russian experts are reportedly creating a theoretical guide to protecting Russian infrastructure from drones, although Russian security experts remain skeptical that Russia will put these theories into practice. A Russian insider source claims that experts from various Russian institutes, the state defense conglomerate Rostec, the ministries of transport, construction, industry and trade and emergency situations, petrochemical companies Sibur and "Transneft" and the energy company "Roset" have published an official set of rules to protect Russian power plants, storage facilities, reactors and other critical infrastructure from strikes by Ukrainian drones. Russian security and construction experts told an insider that the guidance was unlikely to have long-term practical application, given the fast pace of the drone development cycle.
On September 26, Ukrainian Navy spokesman Capt. Dmitry Pletenchuk said Russian forces were continuing to build a "mysterious" structure next to the Kerch Strait bridge. Pletenchuk suggests that the structure may be hydrotechnical or barrier, and that its purpose will become clear after its completion. Pletenchuk added that it is unlikely that Russian forces will complete this construction before the start of the stormy season at sea, which will complicate any construction efforts.