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ISW: Russia rushes to push Ukraine out of Kursk Oblast before winter

Russian bloggers claim that forces operating south of Glushkovo have approached the international border with Ukraine's Sumy Oblast

Oct 12, 2024 08:14 375

ISW: Russia rushes to push Ukraine out of Kursk Oblast before winter  - 1

Russian forces on the evening of October 10 intensified the push of Ukrainian forces from the Kursk region. They are reported to have simultaneously stepped up counterattacks in the Glushkovsky region, on the left flank of the main Ukrainian spur in the Korenevsky region, and on the right flank of the main Ukrainian spur in the Suzhansky region.

Geolocated footage released on October 10 shows that Russian forces have recently advanced into the center of Kremyanoe (east of Korenevo) and to the northern outskirts of Zeleni Shlyakh (southeast of Korenevo) and have overrun Ukrainian positions near Lyubimovka (southeast from Korenevo).

This is stated in the daily analysis of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

ISW has yet to receive confirmation that Russian forces have captured populated areas, despite bloggers' claims.

Russian bloggers claim that forces operating south of Glushkovo have approached the international border with Ukraine's Sumy region.

Ukrainian forces launched ground attacks in the Glushkovsky region on September 11, 2024, following the start of Russian counterattacks in the Kursk region on September 10.

The stepped-up Russian counterattacks are likely aimed at pushing Ukrainian forces out of Kursk Oblast before winter begins to limit battlefield maneuvers.

Ukraine's commander-in-chief, General Oleksandr Sirsky, said on October 10 that Russian forces had redeployed about 50,000 personnel from other operational lines to Kursk Oblast since the invasion began on August 6. Such redeployment probably worsened the readiness of Russian operational groups in Kherson, Zaporozhye and Kharkiv regions.

The Russian military command likely aims to quickly push Ukrainian forces out of Kursk Oblast to free up combat power for its priority offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast and to relieve the operational pressure generated by the Ukrainian incursion.

South Korean and Ukrainian officials continue to point to North Korean military personnel already fighting in Ukraine on Russia's side. The Washington Post reported on October 11 that South Korean and Ukrainian officials said North Korean soldiers were operating alongside Russian forces in Ukraine.

A Ukrainian military intelligence official is reported to have said that individual North Korean officers are surveying the battlefield in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine, but Ukraine has yet to see North Korean units operating in Ukraine.

Western partners continue to announce and provide new military aid to Ukraine. The Norwegian government announced on October 11 that Norway will allocate NOK 967 million (about $90 million) to projects aimed at increasing Norway's defense capabilities, including the production of defense materials for Ukraine.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced on October 11 that Germany, along with Belgium, Denmark and Norway, will provide 1.4 billion euros (about $1.5 billion) in military aid to Ukraine through the end of 2024, which will include the transfer of IRIS-T and Skynex Air Defense Systems, as well as Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns, self-propelled artillery guns, armored vehicles, combat drones, radars and artillery ammunition.

Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala announced that Ukraine will receive approximately 500,000 155-mm artillery ammunition as part of the Czech initiative by the end of 2024. The program may be expanded with the participation of other donor countries.

French publication Avionlegendaires reported on October 9 that France will deliver between 12 and 20 Dassault Mirage 2000-F5 fighter jets to Ukraine in early 2025, following French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecorneau's announcement that France would send an unspecified number of fighters of Ukraine in the first quarter of 2025

Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov announced on October 11 that he met with Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto and discussed the possibility of increasing Italian investment in the Ukrainian defense industrial base.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues diplomatic efforts to establish and clarify Ukraine's strategic vision for peace. On October 10, Zelensky denied allegations that he had discussed with Western allies Ukraine's readiness for a ceasefire on the current front line and territorial concessions to Russia in exchange for US security guarantees and accelerated EU membership.

Ukraine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) announced on October 10 that it refutes claims expressed in foreign media about Ukraine's alleged willingness to make concessions to Russia at the expense of its own sovereignty and territorial integrity, emphasizing the inadmissibility of such Ukrainian concessions .

The MFA noted that the only realistic approach to a just and sustainable peace in Ukraine is the Peace Formula proposed by Ukraine, based on the principles of the UN Charter and the full restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity. Zelensky said during a meeting with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on October 11 that Ukraine aims to create the necessary and fair conditions for honest diplomacy to achieve lasting peace in Ukraine. Meloni noted that peace in Ukraine cannot mean capitulation and that Italy will support Ukraine in creating favorable conditions for peace negotiations in principle.

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov on October 10 declared a "blood feud" against Russian lawmakers, suggesting he is growing bolder in his personal political disputes. He claims that the senator from the Republic of Dagestan Suleiman Kerminov and the State Duma deputies Bekhan Barahoev and Rizvan Kurbanov have "captured" Russia's largest online retailer Wildberries by the company's co-founder Vladislav Bakalchuk and planned to assassinate Kadyrov.

Vladislav Bakalchuk, who co-founded Wildberries with his ex-wife and current CEO Tatyana Bakalchuk, led 20 to 30 armed accomplices in simultaneous raids on two offices in Moscow in September 2024.

Vladislav had previously appealed to Kadyrov to help Tatiana not take over the company and claimed days before the armed attacks in September that Kadyrov had saved his life and kept him out of jail.

Kadyrov speaks in his video in Chechen, possibly in an attempt to prevent Russian media coverage.

Kadyrov previously attacked Kremlin officials rhetorically, speaking out against the June 2024 statements by the head of Russia's Investigative Committee, Alexander Bastrykin, about religious extremism in Russia.

It is unclear whether Russian President Vladimir Putin will respond to the announcement, as he has supported Kadyrov's rule over Chechnya but has consistently tried to portray Russia as a harmonious multi-ethnic and multi-religious society.

Ukrainian officials have confirmed that Ukrainian journalist Viktoria Roshchyna has died in Russian captivity. The Ukrainian Commission for Humanitarian and Information Policy confirmed on October 10 that Roshchyna had died, but the circumstances surrounding her death are unknown.

Ukraine's Prosecutor General's Office said it classified the case as a war crime and intentional murder. Andriy Yusov, spokesman for the Main Directorate of Military Intelligence (GUR) of Ukraine, said on October 10 that Roshchyna was included in a list of prisoners that Ukraine and Russia should exchange in the near future.

Roshchyna went missing in occupied Ukraine in early August 2023, and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reportedly sent a letter to her family on October 10 stating that she had died on September 19.< /p>

The Ukrainian Ministry for the Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories stated that as of November 2023, there were 4,337 Ukrainians in Russian captivity, including 763 civilians.

These figures, which rely on data from the Red Cross, may be even higher, as the Red Cross does not always have access to places where Russian authorities hold Ukrainian civilians, including detention centers and penal colonies in occupied territories.

Ukrainian officials announced new appointments in the Ministry of Defense (MoD). Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov announced on October 11 the appointment of Serhiy Boev to the post of Deputy Minister of Defense for European Integration and Serhiy Melnyk to the post of Deputy Minister of Education, Medicine, Humanitarian Support and Human Capital Policy.

Umerov also noted the creation of supervisory boards of the Defense Procurement Agency and the State Logistics Operator.