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ISW: Kremlin not confident of winning war in Ukraine for two years

Western intelligence officials say North Korean soldiers are in unspecified area in occupied Ukraine

Oct 31, 2024 07:47 199

ISW: Kremlin not confident of winning war in Ukraine for two years  - 1

Kremlin is struggling to prepare the campaign for the Russian State Duma elections in September 2026 due to the uncertainty about the course of the war in Ukraine.

This suggests that the Kremlin is not confident that Russia will be able to win the war in the next two years.

This is stated in the daily analysis of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

At the same time, the Kremlin continues to militarize various levels of Russian government, possibly in preparation for a long-term military effort in Ukraine and a confrontation with NATO, despite the reported lack of preparations for the Duma elections.

Russian occupation authorities continue to advertise Russian military service to civilians in occupied Ukraine.

A source close to the president's administration told Meduza that determining the policy of the Duma elections depends on whether the war in Ukraine will continue in 2026. Meduza reported that a source from the leadership of "United Russia" has stated that it is not clear whether in the campaign of "United Russia" in 2026, the military or a person who "symbolizes the return to peaceful life", such as Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, must participate.

A political strategist who works with the Kremlin and several regional governments said that if the war continues during the 2026 election season, then the Kremlin will need a "force that leans on ultra-patriotism," such as a completely new political party or a "slightly revamped" party "Just Russia".

The source said that if the war ends, then the Kremlin will need "moderate forces". Namely "Just Russia" held a congress on October 26 and announced that its new political course would be "patriotic socialism," which the party described as necessary during Russia's war in Ukraine and "firmly based on the great achievements of Russian civilization and the most important condition for the further development of Russia".

Western intelligence officials say North Korean soldiers are in an unspecified area in occupied Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has highlighted increased cooperation between Ukraine and South Korea amid reports that South Korea would consider providing direct military aid to Ukraine, which have since been retracted.

On October 30, the U.S. Treasury and State Department imposed sanctions on nearly 400 entities and individuals from more than a dozen countries in one of the largest concerted efforts to date to address Russian sanctions evasion through third countries.

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Ukrainian forces recently restored positions near Pokrovsk.

Russian forces have recently advanced in the Kursk region and around Kremenna, Chasov Yar, Pokrovsk and Kurakhovo.