If Syrian President Bashar If Assad falls from power as a result of the rebel offensive, Russia will lose its only military base in the Mediterranean. This could have dramatic consequences for its efforts in Ukraine, writes David Ax in an article for the British newspaper The Telegraph.
The rebels have already captured the country's largest city – Aleppo, and approaching the important Hama. If the anti-government forces succeed in capturing it, they will have the prospect of advancing towards the Mediterranean coast - towards the Latakia region, where the only base of the Russian fleet in the Mediterranean is located - in the port city of Tartus.
Moscow has been using this base since the 1970s. In 2017, Russia and Syria signed a 49-year treaty that gives Moscow even greater access to Tartus. It was from here that several Russian ships came to the Black Sea before the start of the war against Ukraine.
Ax notes that without modern, reliable ships capable of enduring long sea voyages, Russia is forced to rely on "coastal navigation" of its fleet from port to port. And the Tartus base is important in this aspect.
"The loss of Tartus would be catastrophic for the projection of Russian power in Southern Europe and North Africa. Realistically, the only way for the Kremlin to replace the vital coastal infrastructure at Tartus is to restore access to the Mediterranean through the Bosphorus [closed to the Russian Navy due to the war in Ukraine],“, notes the author.
According to Aks, after a possible loss of Tartus, the Kremlin could face a difficult choice: to continue fighting in Ukraine and lose influence in the Mediterranean region, or to make peace with Ukraine and unblock the Turkish straits for its navy.
A new front! If Russia loses its base in Syria, Vladimir Putin will have to seek peace with Zelensky
The rebels have already captured the country's largest city, Aleppo, and are approaching the important Hama
Dec 5, 2024 09:40 978
