Since the beginning of the Syrian civil war, Turkey has taken in over three million Syrian refugees. Their number peaked in 2021 - almost four million people. There are currently 2.9 million refugees registered in the country. According to Turkish Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya, from 2016 to 2024, nearly 730,000 Syrians returned to their homeland.
Turkey has provided massive support
Since the protests against the Assad regime in 2011, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has firmly sided with the Syrian opposition. It has been able to continue its activities from exile in Turkey. The Turkish economy has benefited from the refugees as cheap labor, and Syrian students have gained access to Turkish higher education institutions.
Despite Turkey’s multiple political and economic crises, Ankara has continued to firmly support the Syrian opposition, even as sentiment in the country has shifted and negative attitudes toward Syrian refugees have grown. Now, 14 years later, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) wants to reap the rewards of its efforts.
Turkish companies hope for lucrative deals
According to Abdallah al-Dardari, regional director for the Arab countries at the United Nations Development Program, Syria’s GDP has fallen from $62 billion to just $8 billion. Poverty has increased from 12 to 65 percent. According to Dardari, the country's reconstruction will require about $400 billion.
In the context of this huge challenge, Ankara sees itself in a key position. The Turkish government already has good relations with the new rulers in Damascus and hopes for cooperation in sectors such as energy, steel, construction, textiles, furniture, chemicals and food.
Mustafa Gultepe, chairman of the Turkish Exporters' Association, also emphasizes the need for humanitarian aid. Socially and economically, Syria is at rock bottom, with almost a third of the population abroad. Establishing political stability will take a long time. Therefore, the Turkish economy must first focus on rebuilding the necessary infrastructure. “We will gladly provide what our neighboring country needs”, says Gultepe.
Turkish exports despite the war
Before the Syrian civil war, trade between Turkey and Syria amounted to 1.5 billion dollars, with plans to reach five billion. But after Erdogan sided with the opposition and relations between him and the Assad regime cooled, that goal has become a long way off.
However, economic relations have not completely ceased. Amid rising tensions between Ankara and Damascus, Turkish exports to Syria exceeded two billion dollars annually between 2021 and 2023. Last year, chemical products, electronics, steel and seafood were mainly exported to Syria. Gultepe is certain that once a stable government is formed in Syria, economic relations will experience a strong upswing.
The Turkish steel industry also sees great potential in Syria. Feysel Yayan, secretary general of the Turkish Steel Industries Union, estimates steel needs at two to three million tons. Steel is essential, especially for the country's infrastructure. The geographical proximity of Turkish steel companies offers logistical advantages and opportunities for savings; the large Iskenderun steel plant is only 400 km from Syria.
Hopes for economic prosperity in Syria
Although Turkish companies see great potential in the country, there is still a certain restraint for now. The companies plan to be more active only in the spring - if the transitional government establishes stability by then. In the first phase, Turkish companies plan to focus on cooperation with local partners, especially those with good ties to the new regime. They should pave the way for Turkish investors and reduce risks for them. Murat Akyuz, chairman of the Istanbul Chemical Exporters' Association, sees Syrians returning to their homeland as important partners for Turkish companies. They know both the Turkish and Syrian markets and would contribute to the relationship between the two countries, he believes.
Active contacts
The government has also signaled a keen interest in quickly resuming economic ties. Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar will soon visit Damascus with a delegation to explore the possibilities of energy partnerships. The trade ministry is also acting in a similar way - talks are underway to reach agreements that would facilitate trade and investment between the two countries. For now, however, the Syrian transitional government's latest customs measures have darkened the prospects for success for Turkish exporters. The unification of customs procedures at all borders has led to an increase of up to 500 percent in customs duties on Turkish goods. This has severely limited the competitiveness of Turkish products in the Syrian market.
Authors: Elmaz Topcu | Aram Ekin Duran