Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to demonstrate his readiness to negotiate with Russia from a principled position that preserves Ukraine's territorial integrity in the long term. The head of state reiterated during an interview published on February 4 that Ukraine will not discuss its sovereignty in future peace talks, but also reproached its partners for not currently providing sufficient military assistance to push Russian forces out of all occupied territory.
This is written in the latest analysis of the fighting in Ukraine by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Zelensky said that he was ready to negotiate directly with Russian President Vladimir Putin, but warned that any peace agreement that significantly weakens Ukraine's ability to defend itself in the future risks a new war. The US, Europe, Ukraine and Russia should be involved in future peace talks. The statements stressed that Putin's reluctance to engage in negotiations is the real obstacle to ending the war, despite his recent efforts to falsely accuse Zelensky and Ukraine.
He recalled that the Ukrainian constitution prohibits holding elections during wartime. He asked how military personnel, citizens living in Russian-occupied territory, or refugees and migrants abroad would be able to vote before the government lifted martial law. Ukraine "definitely" will hold elections after the war ends, but for now it must focus on defending itself from Russian aggression. Putin and other Kremlin officials have repeatedly claimed that Zelensky is an illegitimate president after Ukraine failed to hold elections in 2024.
Kremlin-linked former Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada deputy Viktor Medvedchuk argued in a February 4 article that Russia must reclaim its so-called "historical lands". He also published a map depicting all of Ukraine's territory east of the Lviv, Ternopil, and Chernivtsi regions. Medvedchuk claims that Western support for Ukraine is aimed solely at destroying Russia from within, and labels Ukrainians as "modern barbarians" who should be integrated into the Russian state. Medvedchuk denied Ukraine's historical legitimacy, repeating Kremlin propaganda to justify the war.
Zelensky said on February 4 that Russian forces had suffered up to 350,000 combat deaths and an estimated 600,000 to 700,000 wounded since the start of the war in February 2022. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrsky reported on January 20 that Russian forces had suffered more than 434,000 casualties in 2024. The data shows that the Russian military suffered up to 48 percent of its casualties in Ukraine in 2024 alone. Up to 70,000 Russian soldiers are reported missing since February 2022.
Ukrainian forces struck an oil depot in Krasnodar Krai on the night of February 4-5 as part of an ongoing campaign against Russian defense industrial enterprises and oil refineries. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and other Ukrainian forces carried out a drone strike on the Albashneft LLC oil depot in Novominskaya, Krasnodar Krai, causing a fire at the facility.
The Kremlin continues to prioritize domestic political stability over economic pressures and labor shortages. The Russian Interior Ministry (MVD) announced on February 4 that it was introducing a new regime that imposes severe restrictions on migrants residing in Russia.
The law requires migrants who have committed a crime or are undocumented to register and receive approval for essential activities, including buying property, driving, accessing banking services and traveling outside the region. The law allows migrants who violate these restrictions to be deported without a court hearing and punishes those who provide services to such migrants. The head of Russia’s Investigative Committee, Alexander Bastrykin, reported that criminal cases involving migrants are expected to increase by 18% in 2024.
Bastrykin’s statements reinforce Russia’s ultranationalist narrative that migrants pose a security threat, allegedly breaking laws, moving “uncontrollably” around Russia and committing crimes. The Ministry of Internal Affairs’ new migration regime and Bastrykin’s rhetoric demonstrate that Russian authorities are increasingly prioritizing appeasing particularly pro-war and xenophobic Russian ultranationalists and mitigating potential internal security risks associated with growing anti-migrant sentiment, rather than compensating for labor shortages.
Ukraine and Russia held a "one-for-one" prisoner exchange on February 5. Zelensky announced that Ukraine had returned 150 Ukrainian prisoners of war and said that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) had brokered the exchange. Ukraine's coordination headquarters for the treatment of prisoners of war reported that the returned Ukrainian prisoners of war were suffering from serious injuries. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MOD) said that Russia had also taken back 150 Russian prisoners of war.