The series of strong earthquakes that began between the Greek islands of Santorini and Amorgos on Saturday led to the declaration of a state of emergency on the island and the evacuation of thousands of people due to the threat of a serious natural disaster. But the tremors have also captured the imagination of the world community, because Santorini - one of Greece's most recognizable tourist symbols - was the site of one of the largest and most destructive cataclysms in human history, associated with a number of stories, including the famous sinking of the mythical continent of Atlantis.
More than 7,000 earthquakes have shaken the island in less than a week, the strongest of which was on Wednesday with a magnitude of 5.2 on the Richter scale. On Thursday, Santorini declared a state of emergency, and more than 12,000 people left the island, the majority of its population of just over 15,000. All this has led many to wonder whether it is possible to repeat the catastrophe of millennia ago, which probably changed the course of regional and even human history.
The present-day island of Santorini, known in ancient times as Strongyli, is the site of one of the largest volcanic eruptions in recorded human history. This occurred around 1600 BC. The catastrophic event, which ejected about 30-40 sq km of rock, ash and lava, and the subsequent tsunami wiped out settlements not only on Strongyli but also on nearby islands and along the coast of Crete, and according to researchers, it may have caused the decline and eventual end of the Minoan civilization - an event that had an impact on the further course of history of both Ancient Greece, Egypt and the Middle East. After the eruption, the crater of the volcano sank below the surface of the sea, and the remains of the island are what we know today as Santorini.
And while the scale of the so-called Minoan eruption is unquestionable, in the minds of mankind the ancient catastrophe takes on apocalyptic proportions, because many researchers associate it with the myth of the sinking of Atlantis, with the Battle of the Titans, or even with biblical plots such as the exodus of the Israelites from Egypt.
Although an eruption of a similar scale has not been repeated at this place since the catastrophe 3600 years ago, the volcanic complex around Santorini remains active. Throughout history, it has had several eruptions, the last of which was in 1950.
However, what seems to worry scientists the most is, above all, the possibility of a strong earthquake, and not so much of a volcanic eruption. The area around Santorini and Amorgos was the site of the strongest earthquake in Greece in the 20th century - in 1956. The 7.7 magnitude quake destroyed hundreds of homes and killed 52 people. The ensuing 25m tsunami caused extensive damage across much of the Aegean Sea and claimed three more lives.
Both the volcanic and seismic activity in the Santorini area is due to the African tectonic plate subducting beneath the European one, which causes friction that leads to earthquakes, but also creates a series of volcanoes of varying degrees of activity known as the South Aegean Volcanic Arc.
The chairman of the Organisation for Earthquake Planning and Protection, Prof. Evtimios Lekas, told Sky TV on Thursday that the current seismic activity has no connection to any possible volcanic activity. He stressed that the series of earthquakes is of tectonic, not volcanic origin.
Lekas said that experts are considering three possible scenarios for the development of the situation around the islands of Santorini and Amorgos. The first and most likely of them is that seismic activity will remain at the same levels for several weeks, after which it will gradually subside.
The second scenario is that the activity will lead to a main tremor of the order of 5.5 - 5.7 on the Richter scale. In this scenario, some damage can be expected to old buildings on Santorini, as well as landfills, while there should be no damage on Amorgos.
In the third scenario, a stronger earthquake will follow, which will still be below the sixth magnitude, which will have consequences throughout the island of Santorini.
In front of ANT1 TV, the Director General of Research at the Institute of Geodynamics Thanasis Ganas said that the earthquakes are due to the movement of magma from the volcano in a northeasterly direction. According to Ganas, there are two scenarios: according to the first, there will be no more serious earthquake, but according to the second - the fault could crack and a larger earthquake of the sixth magnitude with tsunamis and landslides will follow.
In front of News 24/7, the doctor of volcanology Stavros Meletlidis specified that “volcanoes, unlike earthquakes, give a warning. The warning can be 48 hours, a week or two months. At this point, the competent committees have not linked the earthquakes to the activation of the volcano“.
However, not all experts agree with this opinion. In front of Sky TV, the professor of geology Avraham Zelilidis from the University of Patras stated that the signs point to the activation of one of the volcanoes in the area, most likely the underwater crater of Columbo, which is northeast of Santorini and erupted in 1650. Among the symptoms, he indicated the stabilization of seismic activity, the expansion of the Columbo crater, the increase in the temperature of the sea water in the area of the islet of Nea Kameni. “I come to the conclusion that with a probability of 99 percent it is a question of the activation of a volcano”.
“I think there will be an eruption”, said Zelilidis and expressed hope that it will be weak, the tensions in the volcano will subside, and the lava flows will be calm. “I think that in the next ten days everything will be over”, he said.
For now, all the efforts of the authorities are focused on protecting human life and, as far as possible, housing, infrastructure, cultural monuments. It is still too early to say what the impact of the situation will be on the economy of one of the most popular Greek tourist destinations, but the Greek media is writing about a mass cancellation of reservations for Santorini on the “Airbnb” platform. Quoted by rodosreport.gr, Airbnb President Andreas Hiu said that the number of cancelled bookings exceeds 80 percent.
Sky TV reports that insurance companies have started refusing to insure properties on the islands of Santorini, Anafi and Amorgos, arguing that “insurance covers a possible risk, not almost certain damage”.
In a sign of support from the state, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis was in Santorini today. He said, quoted by state television ERT, that “a serious country must prepare for the worst case scenario and hope for the best. Santorini is an iconic destination and it is our duty to protect its glory. We need a balance, to be here, and not to spread catastrophic scenarios”.
The Greek Prime Minister announced that next week there will be a meeting dedicated to measures to support businesses on the island. He also emphasized the problems of infrastructure and mainly measures to avoid landslides on the slopes of the volcano's caldera.