Ukraine's sovereignty will be at risk as long as Vladimir Putin rules Russia. No amount of negotiations will force the Russian president to give up his goals, Foreign Policy writes.
Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine has been going on for almost three years. Despite huge losses on both sides, Kiev and Moscow will not surrender. This suggests that peace talks are unlikely to lead to a complete cessation of hostilities, Foreign Policy also writes.
The publication recalls that in 2014, Ukraine's allies hoped that war with Russia could be avoided. The Minsk agreements did not prevent Putin's decision to invade Ukraine in 2022.
Today's diplomacy will have to accept the truth. It consists in the fact that Russia remains politically stable and militarily resilient, despite signs of economic difficulties and military fatigue, the publication emphasizes.
In this regard, US President Donald Trump, who promised to end the war in Ukraine as soon as possible, faces a number of problems. One of them is that Kiev is not obliged to carry out his orders, since Ukraine has its own armed forces, its own defense industry and assistance from European countries.
However, the main obstacle to successful negotiations is Russia itself, the publication believes. The fact that Russia managed to survive under such circumstances convinced Putin that the invasion of Ukraine makes sense.
However, American negotiators should keep in mind that Putin's decision to invade Ukraine in 2022 still weakened Russia. The Russian elite also admits this.
In addition, Putin will not be able to conquer Ukraine. Ukraine still controls about 80% of its territory, although Russia continues to seize Ukrainian lands. Ukraine is weakened by the war, but it has no reason or desire to surrender, the publication emphasizes. Ukrainian political and social structures have managed to withstand incredible pressure.
Ukraine's sovereignty will be threatened as long as Putin rules Russia. No negotiations will force Putin to give up his goals. Instead of a complete cessation of the war, negotiations should have a more modest goal of reducing the intensity of the fighting. To achieve this, the United States must put pressure on Russia.