China is supporting the production of military drones from Russia, becoming a hub for smuggling key Western components for the Russian armed forces, Estonia's foreign intelligence service said in an annual national security report published on Tuesday, as cited by Reuters.
Nearly 80 percent of such components supplied to Russia now come from China, the report said. Earlier Ukrainian reports claimed that nearly 60 percent of imported parts found in Russian weapons on the battlefield in Ukraine came from China.
China is the “main hub“ Russia to import high-tech dual-use goods, bypassing Western sanctions, the report said.
“China's interests in this case are dictated by Russia's unwillingness to lose the war in Ukraine, as such an outcome would be a victory for the United States, China's main rival,“, Kaupo Rosin, the director general of the Estonian intelligence service, told journalists via video link.
The Chinese embassy in Tallinn did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.
Estonia, a NATO member, monitors Russian military capabilities as it considers Moscow to be a major threat to its security, especially since the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Estonia, like the other two Baltic republics - Latvia and Lithuania - were forcibly annexed by Moscow during World War II and regained their independence only in 1991 after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Russia does not have its own substitutes for drone parts and largely procures them from the West, the report said.
“Chinese authorities [...] facilitate bilateral cooperation and secret deliveries of dual-use components through private companies“, the report added.
“This approach is likely to reduce Russia's dependence on Western components and in the long term could undermine the West's ability to exert influence in this area“, the report said.
Western companies' branches in China are likely involved in these schemes, Estonian intelligence said.
Russia is investing significantly in expanding drone production, including in the production of an advanced local version of Iranian kamikaze drones, the report said.
Russia is on track to expand The number of its armed forces will increase to 1.5 million, up from 600,000-700,000 in the fall of 2022, with new units being sent to Ukraine to gain combat experience, the report said.
They will be deployed along the borders with NATO countries - including the Baltic republics - after the end of the war, Rosin said, adding that the alliance should strengthen its presence there.
Russia is “in principle ready” to negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine, but only "to catch its breath" because Russian President Vladimir Putin has not given up his "imperial ambitions," Rosin said.
In any such talks, Russia is likely to insist that NATO withdraw its troops from the country's eastern border, which, if successful, would give it a dominant position in the Baltic region.
Moscow denies having expansionist intentions towards its neighbors and says it had to send troops to Ukraine to counter what it sees as a hostile and aggressive West that threatens its own security, Reuters reported.