If Moscow perceives NATO as weak, it could be ready to start a "full-scale war" in Europe within five years.
This is what "Politico" is sounding the alarm. The media cited the Danish Defense Intelligence Service (DDIS).
"Russia is likely to be more willing to use military force in a regional war against one or more European NATO countries if it perceives NATO as militarily weakened or politically divided", the intelligence report states.
"This is particularly true if Russia judges that the United States cannot or will not support European NATO countries in a war with Russia", the report continues, emphasizing that Russia is increasing its military capabilities to prepare for a possible war against NATO.
The updated threat assessment comes at a time when US President Donald Trump is seeking to end the war in Ukraine, which is entering its fourth year later this month.
The agency offers three scenarios that could occur if the conflict in Ukraine stops or is frozen, based on from the assumption that Russia does not have the capacity to wage war with several countries at once.
Within six months, the update predicts, Russia will be able to wage a local war with a neighboring country, and within two years it will be able to start a regional war in the Baltic Sea region.
At the same time, in five years it will be able to launch a large-scale attack on Europe, provided that the United States does not intervene.
The agency notes that it did not take into account a possible increase in NATO's defense capabilities.
Trump has called on NATO members to increase their defense spending to 5% of GDP, which is more than twice the current target, and suggested that the United States withdraw from the military alliance if its allies do not pay.
In 2024, Trump said he would "encourage" Russia to attack any NATO member state that fails to meet its financial obligations.