US President Donald Trump held bilateral phone calls with his Russian and Ukrainian counterparts Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky on February 12. Trump said he discussed the war in Ukraine with Putin and that he and Putin agreed that their administrations should "immediately" begin negotiations.
This is according to another analysis on Ukraine by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Trump briefed Zelensky on the conversation. The official Kremlin transcript of the conversation claims that Putin stressed the need to "eliminate the root causes" of the war and that he "agreed" with Trump that "a long-term settlement can be achieved through peaceful negotiations".
Russian officials have explicitly cited NATO's decision to advance eastward into areas close to Russia's border as a root cause of the war. This shows that the Kremlin remains committed to imposing its will and security interests on the United States and Europe and is not interested in compromising on this demand.
Trump confirmed his phone call with Zelensky and said they discussed the war and the upcoming February 14 meeting between Ukrainian President and U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the Munich Security Conference.
Zelensky and Trump discussed the possibilities for peace, readiness to work together, and Ukraine's technological capabilities - including drones.
The two agreed to plan future bilateral meetings.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov and Deputy Chairman of Russia's Security Council Dmitry Medvedev explicitly rejected Zelensky's proposal to exchange occupied Ukrainian territory for territory held by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region during future peace talks. negotiations.
Medvedev said it would be "stupid" to swap Russian and Ukrainian territories, and Peskov said Russia would "never discuss" exchange of its territory.
The statements support ISW's assessment that Putin does not allow any compromises during future peace talks and will only comply with a peace agreement that fulfills all maximalist demands.
The Danish Military Intelligence Service has assessed that Russia will have the capacity to launch a large-scale war against NATO within the next five years, in line with ISW's assessments of Russian efforts to prepare its military and society for a future conflict with NATO in the medium to long term.
A declassified intelligence assessment dated February 11 described the growing Russian threat to Denmark and NATO members.
The intelligence assessment notes that Russia is rebuilding its military to fight NATO, aided by financial and material support from China, North Korea and Iran. The intelligence assessment said Russia’s willingness to risk war with the alliance could increase if European countries do not simultaneously build up their military capabilities in response to Russian capacity-building efforts. The British-based International Institute for Strategic Studies reported on February 12 that Europe spent $457 billion on defense in 2024, while Russia spent $462 billion.
Currently, Russia has avoided actions that could trigger NATO’s Article 5 — a commitment to mutual self-defense — but that could change if it senses a shift in the balance of power in its favor. If Russia believes that NATO is militarily or politically weakened, it may be more inclined to attack a European NATO member, especially if Russia doubts U.S. military support for Europe.
The intelligence assessment specifically warns that ending or freezing the war in Ukraine on terms favorable to Russia would free up significant Russian military resources for its involvement in another future conventional conflict—consistent with the long-standing ISW assessment. The assessment outlines a timeline for Russia’s growing military threat in the event of a cessation of hostilities in Ukraine: Russia could wage a local war against a neighboring state other than Ukraine within six months; Russia could effectively threaten NATO members in the Baltic region within two years; and Russia could be prepared for a large-scale war in Europe, assuming NATO does not rearm at the same pace as Russia, in five years.
ISW previously assessed that Russia's efforts to restructure the Russian army, revive the Moscow and Leningrad military districts, and create long-term mechanisms to militarize and radicalize Russian society against Western ideals and values indicate that Russia is preparing for a future conflict with NATO.
Russian forces launched a missile and drone strike targeting mainly the city of Kiev and Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on the night of 11-12 February. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces fired seven Iskander-M ballistic missiles/S-400 air defense missiles from Bryansk Oblast and occupied Crimea and 123 Shahed and decoy drones from Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Primorsky-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; and Oryol, Bryansk, and Kursk Oblasts.
The Ukrainian Air Force reported that the Russian missiles were targeting the city of Kiev and Kryvyi Rih. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces shot down six missiles and 71 drones over Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Kyiv, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Kirovograd, Zhytomyr, Dnepropetrovsk, Kherson and Mykolaiv regions, and that 71 decoy drones were "lost", possibly due to interference by Ukrainian electronic warfare.
Ukrainian officials reported on February 12 that Russian missiles damaged buildings in the Obolonsky, Sviatoshynsky, Darnytskyi and Holosiivskyi districts of Kyiv city and Boryspil, Kyiv region, and there were five casualties. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported on February 12 that Russian ballistic missiles and drones had damaged civilian infrastructure and killed at least one person in Kyiv city.
Ukraine's Southern Operational Command reported on February 12 that a Russian missile had hit central Kryvyi Rih and damaged civilian infrastructure. Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Colonel Yuriy Ignat stressed that Ukraine needs the US-supplied Patriot air defense systems to counter ballistic missile strikes.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MOD) recently launched the voluntary recruitment program "Contract 18-24", aimed at recruiting Ukrainians aged 18 to 24 into the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense officially launched the program on February 11 and noted that the program offers 18- to 24-year-olds the opportunity to join the army on a one-year contract and the option to either re-enlist after a year or return to civilian life. The Ukrainian MoD will pay volunteers $4,700 upon signing a one-year contract and an additional $19,120 during their service, in addition to a monthly salary of $2,870.
The volunteers will undergo three months of training before deploying to the front lines. The Ukrainian government will subsidize future mortgages, education and medical care for the volunteers and will allow volunteers to travel abroad after a year of service. The program also exempts volunteers from mobilization for 12 months after the expiration of their one-year contract.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said that the "Contract 18-24" program is part of Ukraine's ongoing efforts to create a professional army. Ukrainian Defense Ministry spokesman Dmytro Lazutkin said the ministry would pay about $23,900 to all Ukrainian servicemen who were under the age of 25 when they signed a contract for voluntary military service.
Russian President Vladimir Putin held his first official conversation with Syria's interim president Ahmed al-Shara on February 12 since the fall of Russia-backed former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. Putin reaffirmed Russia's support for the unity and territorial integrity of Syria and stressed the need for dialogue between political and ethno-religious groups in Syria.
Putin pledged continued socio-economic assistance and economic cooperation with Syria, and Putin and Al-Shara discussed recent negotiations between the Syrian interim government and a Russian delegation that visited Damascus on January 28.
However, this delegation failed to reach an agreement with the Syrian government on the rights to base Russian military personnel at the Khmeimim air base and the port of Tartus.
Russia is likely to continue engaging with the Syrian interim government in an attempt to secure its presence at these bases.
The Armenian National Assembly approved on February 12 in first reading a draft law to begin the process of accession to the European Union (EU).
Several Armenian civil society organizations initiated the bill through a petition that gathered sufficient support (at least 50,000 signatures) for parliamentary consideration.
The legislation calls on Armenian authorities to begin EU accession negotiations in accordance with the will of the Armenian people.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov acknowledged Armenia's "sovereign right" to seek EU membership, but urged Armenians to consider whether the EU shares this goal. Peskov also highlighted the "benefits" that Armenia gains as a member of the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).
Russian officials and media commentators have previously argued that Armenia's move towards EU membership is a signal of its withdrawal from the EAEU.
Armenia continues to strengthen its ties with the EU and the West in general amid escalating tensions with Russia and concerns that it is an unreliable security partner for Armenia.