US President Donald Trump held a conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin. This step of the American leader caused a negative reaction from the European Union countries and fears that the new administration in Washington will abandon Ukraine.
Europeans are concerned that none of the Trump team has real experience in negotiations with the Russians. At the same time, most members of Putin's team have extensive experience and learned their trade from the Russian special services.
This situation creates a number of dangers for both the European Union and Ukraine. Bloomberg outlined three possible scenarios for the development of events in Ukraine.
The most likely scenario involves the occupied territories of Ukraine remaining under Russian control. Some land swaps involving Kursk are possible. Ukraine would receive certain security guarantees, but NATO membership is out of the question. With NATO membership not realistically on the table at the moment, any pledges made today will ultimately depend on future political leaders. European countries will try to persuade Trump to maintain U.S. support for Kiev long enough for EU countries to build up their own capabilities.
The best-case scenario for Kiev is for the U.S. and the EU to commit to stepping in if Moscow backs out of a deal. But the risk of direct conflict with Russia has even some of Ukraine’s most ardent supporters wary. Instead, Kiev’s partners could commit to increased military support and tougher sanctions against Russia. They could also help Ukraine develop its defense industry and rebuild its forces to serve as a primary deterrent against Kremlin aggression. If the EU can meet all these conditions, it could pave the way for Ukraine to join the bloc, possibly within the next 10 years, strengthening its eastern flank.
In the worst-case scenario for Kiev, Trump will lose interest in what is happening in Ukraine. He will stop military and financial aid and leave the Europeans to deal with the problem themselves. It is possible that Trump and Putin will reach some kind of peace agreement, but it will only be respected at first. The deal will preserve Ukraine's sovereignty, but it will also allow Putin to strengthen his military capabilities and maintain control over occupied Ukraine. The Baltic states, which Putin sees as part of the Russian empire he wants to restore, would be the most likely target for attack. This scenario envisages a direct war between Russia and NATO.