For months, the organizers of the Munich Security Conference have been planning its holding. But after Donald Trump's phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, their work became meaningless. Now the conference will mainly deal with the possible end of Russia's aggressive war against Ukraine, writes the German public broadcaster ARD.
Russian government representatives not invited
However, there will be no negotiations during the conference, its chairman Christoph Heusgen emphasized. Because all countries should participate in them, and Russian government representatives have deliberately not been invited. The reason is the previous refusal of Russian President Vladimir Putin to hold talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
However, Zelensky's reaction to the American proposals is expected with particular interest - he is scheduled to meet with US Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
ARD notes that the US administration has announced many of the key points in advance: Ukraine within its pre-2014 borders, i.e. before the annexation of Crimea by Russia, is unrealistic; after the end of the upcoming peace negotiations, Ukraine will not become a member of NATO; guarantees for Ukraine's security should be assumed primarily by European countries.
Russia is in a better position
According to Heusgen, Russia is in a far better negotiating position not only because of American statements, but also because time is running in its favor. Heusgen, as a foreign policy advisor to Angela Merkel, was among the people who played a decisive role in the Minsk Agreement between Ukraine and Russia after the annexation of Crimea in 2015, the German public-law media outlet recalls.
From his point of view, two things are important for the negotiations: first, that there should be no talks without the participation of Ukraine. And second, that European countries should also be included, since they will ultimately have to bear the brunt of the implementation of the agreement.
Warning to Europe
"Munich will be a wake-up call, Europe's time has come," said Heusgen, quoted by ARD. Europe should finally do more to guarantee its own security.
In connection with possible peace talks, the statement of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is also awaited with great interest. China has unequivocally sided with Russia in the war, although it has repeatedly emphasized that it is a neutral mediator. Heusgen believes that China has important leverage with which it can influence the achievement of peace.
However, there is another reason for the increased interest in China, ARD points out. Because the country is perceived by the United States as its biggest competitor, as well as the biggest threat to global influence. Both politically and economically. Trump's tariff policy has already led to a trade war. Drastic cuts in American development aid could even increase China's influence. The autocratic state is actively investing in infrastructure projects in many African countries.
With attention also to the Middle East
The seemingly fragile truce between Israel and Hamas will also be on the agenda of the participants in the Munich conference. Earlier this week, Hamas announced that it would not release any more Israeli hostages because Israel was not adhering to the ceasefire agreements. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threatened Hamas with a continuation of the war in response.
Meanwhile, Hamas has backed down, with the deadline for the hostages to be released expiring on Saturday. The Israeli foreign minister will be in Munich, but Netanyahu will not be there - because of an arrest warrant issued against him by the International Criminal Court for war crimes and crimes against humanity. This means that he would have to be detained in Germany.
Heusgen will chair the conference for the third and final time, the ARD reported. From next year, it will be chaired by former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.