Ukraine's European partners announced new military aid to Ukraine during the Defense Contact Group meeting (Ramstein format) on February 12. Britain pledged about $188 million in military support, including drones, "dozens" of battle tanks and armored vehicles, and air defense systems. London has confirmed its plans to provide Ukraine with additional military aid worth about $5.6 billion in 2025.
This is according to the latest analysis on Ukraine by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The United Kingdom said it would provide Ukraine with over 50 armored and protective vehicles, including upgraded T-72 tanks, by the end of spring 2025.
Germany has pledged to deliver 100 IRIS-T air defense missiles to Ukraine in the near future, and the German defense company Helsing announced the delivery of 6,000 drones equipped with artificial intelligence to Ukraine.
Norway has joined the Ukrainian Drone Coalition and revealed plans to create and equip the Ukrainian "Northern Brigade" as part of a broader Nordic initiative in which the Nordic countries will equip and train one Ukrainian battalion each.
The Netherlands announced the delivery of 25 YPR armored infantry vehicles, Latvia announced the donation of 42 armored personnel carriers, and Estonia also committed to allocate 0.25 percent of its GDP to military aid to Ukraine in 2025.
Russia lost just over 5,000 tanks and armored vehicles in 2024, compared to 3,000 in 2023. The British International Institute for Strategic Studies estimated on February 10 that Russia had lost 1,400 main battle tanks (roughly the value of four tank divisions) and over 3,700 infantry fighting vehicles (IMPs) and armored personnel carriers (APCs) — a total of 5,100 tanks and armored vehicles lost in 2024.
Data from the Ukrainian General Staff shows that Ukrainian forces damaged or destroyed over 3,000 Russian tanks and almost 9,000 armored vehicles in 2024.
Russia will be able to maintain its current vehicle loss rate (over 3,000 tanks, APCs, and BMPs annually since 2023) until February 2026 or 2027. by upgrading vehicles from Soviet-era stockpiles.
It remains unclear whether the Russian military command will be able to sustain this increased rate of armored vehicle losses in 2025, as Russian forces appear to be adapting their tactics to limit these losses.
ISW began observing indications in November and December 2024 that Russian forces were using fewer armored vehicles in the Donetsk Oblast, particularly in areas where Russian forces had previously relied heavily on mechanized attacks to make significant tactical advances.
Russian forces continue to use fewer armored vehicles in the Donetsk Oblast and across the front line, likely due to Ukrainian drone operations, equipment limitations, or adverse ground conditions caused by rainy weather. The spokesman for the Khortytsia Group of Forces, Major Viktor Trehubov, stated on February 13 that successful strikes by Ukrainian drones were the main factor, rather than poor weather and ground conditions, that prompted Russian forces to use less armored vehicles on the front line.
Trehubov noted that Russian forces are also having problems delivering shells to some unspecified frontline positions, possibly due to successful Ukrainian strikes on Russian ammunition depots, and have thus reduced the intensity of shelling in such areas.
The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service assessed that Russia is also trying to build up its capabilities in preparation for a potential future war with NATO, which is consistent with ISW assessments. EFIS published its annual intelligence report on February 12, which focuses on Russian threats to Estonia, other NATO members, and the West.
The report noted that the pace of Russian military rearmament would depend on the duration and outcome of Russia’s war in Ukraine. EFIS also assessed that ending or freezing the war in Ukraine under favorable conditions for Russia would allow it to permanently deploy more forces on the borders of NATO member states neighboring Russia than before the war began in February 2022 — consistent with long-standing ISW assessments.
The intelligence report highlights Russia’s efforts to increase, improve, and centralize drone operations and production.
The Moldovan Foreign Ministry noted that it had summoned the Russian Ambassador to Moldova Oleg Vasnetsov following violations of Moldovan airspace by Russian drones and notified the planned closure of the local branch of the Russian Federal Agency for the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Compatriots Living Abroad, and International Humanitarian Cooperation (Rossotrudnichestvo), a Russian cultural diplomacy agency, in response.
Moldovan President Maia Sandu announced on February 13 that Russian Shahed drones had violated the country's airspace and that two drones had exploded on Moldovan territory.