US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov held a telephone conversation on February 16 with the main goal of establishing a channel of communication for future talks on the war in Ukraine. US State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce said that this was a continuation of the recent conversation between US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. Rubio confirmed the commitment to ending the war in Ukraine.
This is written in the latest analysis on Ukraine by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The Russian Foreign Ministry (MFA) added that the two agreed to maintain a channel of communication to resolve problems between the US and Russia; to remove barriers to trade, economic and investment cooperation; to work together to end the war in Ukraine and resolve problems in the Middle East; and to organize future meetings to improve the work of foreign missions in the United States and Russia.
Rubio noted that he discussed issues related to the work of the American and Russian embassies, as it will be difficult to communicate with Russia if the embassies are not functioning.
Delegations from the United States, Russia and Ukraine are reportedly meeting in Saudi Arabia ahead of bilateral talks in the coming weeks. The US President's special envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, said on February 16 that he, National Security Adviser Mike Walz and other unnamed US officials would travel to Saudi Arabia for bilateral talks with Russia. It remains unclear who will represent Russia at the meeting, although a Russian source said on February 16 that Lavrov would arrive on February 18.
Ukrainian Economy Minister Yulia Sviridenko said a Ukrainian delegation had also arrived in Saudi Arabia for a working visit. It is unclear whether U.S. and Ukrainian representatives will meet in Saudi Arabia, as U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Russia and Ukraine Keith Kellogg is due to arrive in Ukraine in the coming days to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Kellogg said at the Munich Security Conference on February 15 that Russia must make territorial concessions during the talks and promise not to use force against Ukraine in the future, or commit to "reduction" of the Russian military.
Rubio said during his CBS interview that European officials should participate in the peace talks in some capacity, but did not provide further details.
Ukraine's European partners reaffirmed their support for Ukraine's military efforts and national defense industry at the Munich Security Conference. Zelensky met with the head of German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall Armin Paperger on February 15 to discuss the development of joint projects between the Ukrainian and German defense industries, especially regarding the production of 155-mm ammunition and broader cooperation in maintenance and repair efforts.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and emphasized strengthening Ukraine's frontline positions, improving air defense, and strengthening Ukrainian production of drones and long-range missiles.
The head of the Ukrainian President's Office, Andriy Yermak, met with former NATO Secretary General (from 2009-2014) Anders Fogh Rasmussen and discussed strengthening Europe's own defense and the creation of a working group to develop the concept of a "security assurance mechanism" for Ukraine, inspired by the International Working Group on Security and Euro-Atlantic Integration of Ukraine.
Yermak and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sibikha met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and reaffirmed their commitment to future peace talks.
Yermak also met with US Presidential Envoy for Special Missions Richard Grenell to discuss preparations for upcoming high-level meetings. Grenell stressed that support for Ukraine is an investment in global stability and security. Zelensky met with a bipartisan delegation of US congressmen to discuss continuing US defense assistance to Ukraine.
The Kremlin officially reiterated its claim that Ukraine has no sovereignty, has no right to negotiate with Russia, and any future agreements are invalid. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on February 16 that Russia had adjusted its approach to the negotiations, as Ukraine allegedly has a "deficit" of sovereignty.
Peskov said that Ukraine’s decision not to sign the peace agreement that Russia and Ukraine discussed in the spring of 2022 in Istanbul shows that Russia cannot take Ukraine at its word. Ukraine and Russia had not finalized a peace agreement in Istanbul in 2022.
The Kremlin has repeatedly claimed that the West pressured Ukraine to back out of the Istanbul deal. Peskov also continued the Kremlin’s long-standing efforts to shift the blame for the war to Ukraine, due to unfulfilled terms of the Minsk agreements.
The Minsk agreements were extremely favorable to Russia, imposing no obligations on it, but proxies have consistently violated the agreements with Russian support.
Trump recently reiterated that Ukraine would be part of any talks with Russia to end the war. Rubio said on February 16 that Putin had expressed his desire to end the war in a recent phone call, but noted that he must follow up his statement with action in the coming days and weeks to show whether he is serious.
The Kremlin has extended an open invitation to the U.S. president to attend the May 9 Victory Day parade in Moscow as part of an effort to showcase Russia's strength and status as a global power. Peskov said in response to a question about whether the Kremlin was considering hosting Trump that Putin would be "happy to welcome" any head of state to the parade.
The May 9 parade highlights the Soviet Union's role in defeating Nazi Germany during World War II. Putin often uses his speeches to downplay the contributions of other Western allies. The 2025 parade will notably celebrate the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, and Putin has called 2025 the "Year of the Defender of the Fatherland".
The United States is likely to ease sanctions on Belarus. Russia has used Belarus as a springboard for its military against Ukraine and NATO and as a critical tool in its sanctions-evasion schemes. U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Smith told CNN on February 12 that he had led a U.S. delegation to Minsk and met with "Belarusian colleagues" to secure the release of several political prisoners.
Smith said that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko "received nothing for this" release and that it was a "unilateral gesture" from Belarus. Belarusian journalist Igor Tur said on February 13 that Smith and unspecified US officials may have met with Lukashenko during the visit.
The New York Times (NYT), citing its sources, reported on February 15 that Smith met with Lukashenko and the head of the Belarusian State Security Committee (KGB), Ivan Tertel, in Minsk on February 12. The US is considering a bilateral agreement in which Lukashenko would release an unspecified number of political prisoners in exchange for easing US sanctions. ISW believes that this would have a positive effect on the Russian economy due to the project of a union state.
The Russian military command has reportedly redeployed additional elements of the 8th Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District in the directions of Toretsk and eastern Pokrovsk, further indicating that the Russian military command intends to prioritize the pressure on Konstantinovka - the southernmost point of the "fortress belt" of Ukraine - in 2025.
Russian forces likely intend to use advances southwest of Toretsk and northeast of Pokrovsk to force Ukrainian forces to withdraw in the coming months.
ISW estimates that Russian forces operating east of Pokrovsk near Vozdvizhenka are approximately 22 kilometers south of Konstantinovka at their nearest point of advance, and that Russian forces operating in Toretsk are approximately 11 kilometers from Konstantinovka at their nearest point of advance as of 16 February. Russian forces could reach the southern outskirts of Konstantinovka in May 2025 if Russian forces can replicate their recent pace of advance south of Pokrovsk, but this is unlikely given the likely more significant Ukrainian defenses that Russian forces will encounter on the way to Konstantinovka and the degradation of the Russian units involved.
It is unlikely that the Russian military can sustain a multi-year, multi-axis campaign against Ukraine's fortress belt alongside its other offensive operations in Ukraine. ISW has reported extensively on the increasing losses of Russian personnel and equipment in Ukraine and continues to assess that such losses are unsustainable in the medium to long term, given Russia's ongoing buildup of forces and defense industrial capabilities.