The Kremlin reiterated its demands for peace - territories in Eastern and Southern Ukraine to Russia and the disbandment of the Ukrainian army in the future. At the same time, it continues to emphasize that it does not want to make territorial concessions itself in future peace talks. The Russian permanent representative to the United Nations (UN) Vasily Nebenzia stated during a meeting of the UN Security Council on February 17 that Ukraine "irretrievably lost" Crimea, "Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics" (meaning the occupied Donetsk and Luhansk regions), as well as Zaporizhia and Kherson regions.
This is written in the latest analysis on Ukraine by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Nebenzia hinted that peace talks should "correct" the situation in these regions, with Ukraine having to cede them in full, including about 30 percent of the total territory in Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions that Russia does not currently occupy. (Russian forces currently occupy about 99 percent of Luhansk region.) Nebenzia also demanded that Ukraine become a "demilitarized" neutral state and not join any alliances or security blocs. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov rejected on February 17 the possibility of Russia making territorial concessions during future negotiations. Russian President Vladimir Putin said in June 2024 that Ukraine must withdraw its forces from and cede all unoccupied territory.
US Special Presidential Envoy for Russia and Ukraine Keith Kellogg said at the Munich Security Conference on 15 February that Russia must make territorial concessions during the negotiations, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted on 16 February that US President Donald Trump wants to see the war end in a way that "protects Ukraine's sovereignty".
Lavrov and Nebenzia also categorically rejected European participation in future peace talks and accused European countries of aggression towards Russia. Nebenzia claimed that European Union (EU) countries and the UK were "incapable" to reach any agreement with Russia and cannot be party to any future agreements on the war in Ukraine.
Nebenzia accused European countries of being "blinded" by Russophobia and unrealistic about peace talks. Lavrov suggested that European leaders only want to prolong the war in Ukraine in order to defeat Russia in a future war.
Russian authorities have previously accused NATO of collusion. The Russian accusations are likely a new effort by the Kremlin to drive a wedge between the United States and Europe, taking advantage of tensions at the recent Munich Security Conference.
Nebenzia reiterated Putin's demand that Ukraine hold elections before implementing any peace agreements, continuing the Kremlin's efforts to misrepresent the current Ukrainian government as illegitimate. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov and former Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada deputy Viktor Medvedchuk, who has ties to the Kremlin, have also recently repeated the Kremlin's false claims that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is "illegitimate" and implicitly that Russia is not obligated to honor agreements made with the current Ukrainian government.
The Russian delegation participating in the Russian-American talks in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on February 18 does not include one of Putin's inner circle members who had been named as a likely negotiator.
The Russian delegation includes Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, presidential aide Yuri Ushakov, and Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) CEO Kirill Dmitriev. Peskov said the talks would focus on "restoring the entire complex of US-Russian relations" and preparations for possible future discussions on the war in Ukraine between US President Donald Trump and Putin. Lavrov and Ushakov "will be able to send urgent reports" while in Riyadh - suggesting that the Russian delegation's aim is not to negotiate on Putin's behalf.
Lavrov has been Russia's foreign minister since 2004, but is said to have not been involved in previous key Kremlin decisions related to Russia's incursions into Ukraine. Sources in the Russian Foreign Ministry (MFA) told the BBC in August 2023 that the MFA had not previously known about the Kremlin's ultimatums to the US and NATO in late 2021, and the Financial Times (FT) reported in February 2023 that Lavrov had learned about the war hours before it began.
Russian bloggers also claim that the Kremlin failed to notify Lavrov of Putin’s June 2024 press conference at the Foreign Ministry, during which Putin demanded that Ukrainian forces withdraw from the remaining territories of four Ukrainian regions.
A key Putin ally will be notably absent from the meeting. Bloomberg reported on February 14 that sources familiar with the matter said that the head of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, Sergei Naryshkin, would be part of the Russian delegation visiting Saudi Arabia — reports that ultimately proved false.
Naryshkin is a close Putin ally who reportedly participated in Russian-Ukrainian talks shortly after the war began in 2022. and discussions with former CIA Director William Burns in Ankara in November 2022.
Putin also stated that he decided to launch Russia's initial invasion of Ukraine in 2014 after consulting only with "the heads of the Russian special services and the Ministry of Defense." None of the members of the Russian delegation in Saudi Arabia appear to be among the closest inner circle that Putin would likely authorize to participate in serious negotiations on his behalf, but Putin may intend to include more trusted individuals in future rounds of negotiations or may have more confidence in these individuals in these particular negotiations.
Ukrainian forces continue to carry out drone strikes against Russian energy facilities supplying the Russian military. The head of the Ukrainian Center for Combating Disinformation, Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko, reported that Ukrainian forces struck the Ilsky oil refinery in Ilsky, Krasnodar Krai on February 17, and that the refinery has an annual refining capacity of about 6.6 million tons and specializes in the production of fuel, fuel oil, bitumen and gas oil. Kovalenko noted that the oil refinery supplies Russian forces, especially in southern Russia and occupied Ukraine. Kovalenko also reported that Ukrainian forces struck the Kropotkinskaya oil pumping station in the Kavkazsky district, Krasnodar Krai on February 17, and that the station is the largest pumping station in the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. The consortium confirmed that seven drones struck the Kropotkinskaya station, prompting authorities to take the station out of service. Ukrainian newspaper Suspilne reported that Ukrainian special services sources said that the Security Service (SBU) and the Special Operations Forces of Ukraine carried out the drone strikes on the Ilsky oil refinery and the Kropotkinskaya oil pumping station.
Krasnodar Krai Governor Veniamin Kondratyev said that falling debris from drones damaged houses in Ilsky and Slavyansk in the Kuban. The Russian Defense Ministry (MoD) claimed that Russian forces shot down 70 drones overnight, including 24 drones over Krasnodar Krai.
Russian commanders continue to issue orders to Russian forces to execute Ukrainian prisoners of war on the front lines. Ukrainian Ombudsman Dmytro Lubynets reported on February 17 that footage showed Russian forces executing three surrendered Ukrainian prisoners of war at an undisclosed location after a Russian commander ordered soldiers to kill two of the prisoners.
The ISW has long assessed that Russian battlefield commanders are either complicit or allow their subordinates to execute Ukrainian prisoners of war.
Unspecified sources told Bloomberg that Russia appears to be close to a deal with the Syrian interim government to maintain a "reduced" military presence in Syria.
The sources said that Russia is "close" to a deal that would keep at least some personnel and equipment in Syria. Russia hopes to retain the same air and naval bases it used before the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime, likely referring to the Hmeimim air base and the naval base at Tartus, although it also had others. Other forces, such as the Syrian interim government or the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, have taken over many of these bases since the evacuation of Russian forces.
The tone between Russia and the Syrian interim government has changed significantly in recent weeks, supporting claims by sources that Russia could reach an agreement with Syria. Syria's interim president Ahmed al-Shara stressed the "strong strategic relationship" during a recent phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on February 12.
Syria's interim defense minister, Marhaf Abu Kasra, recently suggested that Russia could be allowed to retain air and naval bases if there were "benefits" for Syria.