It is more than clear that the new German government, which will be formed after the early elections on February 23, will face enormous challenges in foreign policy. Some speak of an "epochal turning point", of a reorientation in almost all areas. Or to put it another way: Germany must finally say goodbye to its comfortable role as an economically powerful but geopolitically unstable country.
For many decades after World War II, German foreign ministers had quite comfortable positions - they represented a country tied to the West, defending multilateralism, democracy and the rule of law. Foreign policy decisions were made in close cooperation with friendly Western countries, and the US was responsible for the country's security.
The US no longer wants to guarantee Germany's security
And now? At the Munich Security Conference (MSC), the new US Vice President J.D. Vance announced that Europe must cover the costs of its own defense and take on more responsibilities. In an interview with DW, the chairman of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and a possible future German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, expressed bewilderment: “This is a historic date: American security guarantees are being questioned, and the Americans are questioning democratic institutions“. And all this is happening at breakneck speed.
Foreign policy expert for the CDU parliamentary group Roderich Kiesewetter believes that the country is at a crossroads. According to him, Germany must realize that its democratic constitution and the rule of law are increasingly under threat. China, for example, is doing everything possible to expand its influence and increase the dependence of democratic countries like Germany. Kiesewetter advocates a policy that puts Germany's national and economic interests at the center: "Otherwise, the economic consequences will be severe and NATO will lose its deterrent effect. To achieve this, however, a clear strategic and political reorientation of foreign and security policy is necessary. The old conciliatory thinking and naivety towards China do not fit into them, but are counterproductive," he warned.
German peacekeeping troops in Ukraine?
As for the currently dominant topic of policy towards Ukraine, nothing will be the same anymore. After the start of Russian aggression against Ukraine in the spring of 2022. Germany was the biggest supporter of Ukraine after the US - both militarily and in terms of accepting refugees. Now there is a danger that the US and Russia will negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine on their own, and that Germany and other countries, mainly from Europe, will find themselves responsible for ensuring peace with their own military force. In any case, President Trump has already announced that the US will not participate.
Fragile majority in favor of peacekeeping troops
In a survey conducted by the Forsa Institute for Public Opinion Research, 49% of Germans support Germany's participation in such a peacekeeping mission, while 44% are against. The current Federal Chancellor, the Social Democrat Olaf Scholz, told ARD: "We welcome the fact that peace talks are taking place, but at the same time it must be clear that there cannot be a dictated peace, and that Ukraine is not obliged to accept what is imposed on it."
But that is exactly what could happen. In any case, Germany must focus on its own effective defense, preferably in close cooperation with other EU member states. Anton Hofreiter, a member of the Bundestag for the Green Party, believes that this will require financial resources of the order of 500 billion euros, which is a cosmic sum.
Leadership in Europe?
According to the CDU's candidate for chancellor, Friedrich Merz, Germany must take the initiative in Europe. “Everyone expects Germany to take on greater leadership responsibility. I have repeatedly called for this. Germany is the most populous country in Europe. Germany is located in the geostrategic center of the European continent. We must shoulder this role“, he told DW.
For Merz, German armaments are important not only in relation to Ukraine: “It is not just about Ukraine, but also about peace in Europe, which is threatened by Russian aggression, which reaches us in Germany every day - through threats to our infrastructure, our communication networks and the data cables under the Baltic Sea“.
As for the Middle East, Germany's influence will remain quite limited, as it has been so far. The future government will also be guided by the principle of the right of the state of Israel to exist and will continue to advocate for a solution to the Middle East conflict based on two states in the region - Israeli and Palestinian. Although this seems increasingly unlikely.
Almost doubling of the defense budget after 2028?
What does all this mean in practice? The focus will probably be on building up its own military potential. In this regard, the current Defense Minister Boris Pistorius from the Social Democratic Party has repeatedly said that the Bundeswehr must become "capable of waging war". Since the summer of 2022, there has been a special fund financed by new debt, amounting to about 100 billion. euros for rearming the Bundeswehr, but it will be exhausted by 2028. Then spending on the army could jump from the current around 50 billion euros per year to 80 or even 90 billion euros. Whether the money will be raised through new debt or through budget cuts in other areas is currently the subject of heated debate in the election campaign. According to Kiesewetter, however, this drastic increase is of existential importance. Without strong armaments, Germany will simply no longer be taken seriously in Washington: “The geoeconomics of the future transatlantic partnership will mean that Europe will have to offer a minimum package to keep the US as a strong partner in Europe and in NATO“, says the expert.
New partners?
Foreign Minister Analene Berbock of the Greens sounds almost desperate when she calls for a united Europe as the answer to all the changes in the world: “We are 450 million people. We are the largest common market in the world. We have created new partnerships and now we must use all this together and not stumble over trifles“, she appeals.
These new partnerships include agreements with the Gulf states or with those of Mercosur (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay).
Author: Marcel Fürstenau