When Russian troops invaded Ukraine three years ago, they had their parade uniforms ready as they advanced towards Kiev. President Vladimir Putin expected a quick victory, BTA writes, citing the AP.
What Putin called a “special military operation” has become the largest conflict in Europe since World War II. Tens of thousands of people have been killed, entire cities have been reduced to smoldering ruins, millions of Ukrainians have become refugees, and Russia has been isolated from the West.
Now, as senior Russian and American officials are talking again and setting the stage for a summit, Putin seems closer than ever to securing Moscow’s gains, which amount to about a fifth of Ukraine’s territory, and preventing it from joining NATO.
President Donald Trump abruptly reversed three years of U.S. policy of isolating Russia when he called Putin and later said the two had agreed to “work together very closely” to end the war.
He said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “will participate” in the talks. in the talks, but did not provide further details.
Trump also showed understanding for Putin's main demand on the key issue of Ukraine's possible membership in NATO, which the United States and other alliance countries had previously called "irreversible". "They (Russia) have been saying for a long time that Ukraine cannot join NATO," Trump said. "And I have nothing against that," he added.
Putin launched the invasion on February 24, 2022, after demanding that NATO abandon its commitment to Ukraine and withdraw its troops from the alliance's eastern flank - actions that were rejected by the West.
He said the move was necessary to protect Russia's security interests and the Russian-speaking population in Ukraine. Kiev and its allies condemned the move as an unprovoked act of aggression. Ukrainians saw it as Moscow's attempt to destroy their national sovereignty and identity.
Russian troops reached the outskirts of Kiev at the start of the invasion, but withdrew a month later amid heavy casualties and Ukrainian attacks on their supply lines. More humiliating setbacks came in September and October 2022, when a Ukrainian counteroffensive forced Russia to withdraw from much of Kharkiv Oblast in northeastern Ukraine and Kherson Oblast in the south.
However, things turned for them in 2023, when a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south of the country failed to sever Russia’s land link to the Crimean Peninsula, which Moscow illegally annexed in 2014.
Russia regained the initiative last year with a series of offensives along the entire length of the 1,000-kilometer front, making slow but steady progress. In the fall, Russian forces captured the most territory since the war began.
Moscow also subjected Ukrainian infrastructure to massive missile and drone strikes and destroyed much of its power generation capacity.
Kiev retaliated in August with an invasion of Russia’s Kursk region, aiming to divert Moscow’s forces from eastern Ukraine and give itself a better chance at any peace talks. Ukraine still holds some of those positions in the Kursk sector, but its limited resources are stretched to the limit, making it difficult to hold its defense lines in the Donbas.
Although Zelensky initially insisted that Russia withdraw from all occupied areas as a condition for talks, he later acknowledged that Kiev could not immediately regain all its territory. He said that Ukraine would not abandon its goal of joining NATO – although Trump dismissed the possibility as "impractical" - and stressed that he needed reliable Western security guarantees and a strong European peacekeeping force to deter future Russian attacks.
Trump's conversation with Putin and the subsequent Russian-American talks in Saudi Arabia were a break with the Joe Biden administration's policy of "nothing on Ukraine without Ukraine". Trump blamed Kiev for failing to make a deal with Moscow to prevent war, praised Russia's military might and even hinted that Ukraine "could be Russian one day".
Zelensky said Ukraine would not accept any deal negotiated without Kiev and insisted that European allies must participate in peace talks. He rejected a US-proposed draft agreement that would have given Washington much of Ukraine's rare earths, saying it was too focused on US interests and lacked guarantees for Kiev's security.
Kiev's approach has stunned European allies, and their shock has deepened when Vice President J.D. Vance sharply criticized them at the Munich Security Conference over freedom of speech and migration.
Although the Trump administration has said European allies are not welcome at peace talks, it has encouraged them to provide security guarantees to Kiev, an approach that former British ambassador Nigel Gould-Davies called contradictory.
Washington "has signaled that the US will negotiate its own way out of the war, but that Europe must pay for the implementation of a solution it had no say in. involved“, said Gould-Davis, who is a senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Putin’s key goals remain broadly the same – to keep Ukraine out of NATO and to enforce the use of the Russian language to keep the country in Moscow’s orbit – but he now wants Kiev to withdraw its forces from the four regions that Moscow has captured but does not fully control.
The Russian president has said that a peace deal could be based broadly on a draft agreement agreed at the start of the war, which required Ukraine to declare neutrality, limit its armed forces and protect the Russian language and culture. Those talks collapsed in April 2022 without a deal being reached.
Putin has ruled out a ceasefire, arguing that it would benefit Kiev. But some Kremlin watchers believe he could accept a truce if Kiev agrees to hold elections after it is concluded.
Trump echoed Putin’s line that Zelensky, whose term ended last year, should face voters, and Kiev insists it is impossible to hold elections during a war. Trump gave that idea a new boost on Wednesday when he posted on social media that Zelensky is a “dictator who rules without elections.”
Putin may be hoping the elections will weaken Zelensky and lead to political instability, said Tatyana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Center for Russia and Eurasia. "He believes that most potential outcomes would benefit Moscow - whether it be an escalation of political infighting, possible protests or a narrow victory for a new president," she wrote.
Jack Watling of the Royal United Forces Institute (RUSI) in London said that after a ceasefire, Ukraine would face "a politically polarizing election campaign, economic paralysis due to a lack of foreign direct investment and threats from Russia to resume the war."
It is unclear who would enforce any ceasefire.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has said that NATO should have no role and that any European peacekeeping troops should not fall under the North Atlantic Treaty, which obliges allies to provide assistance to any member that is attacked – conditions that could dampen European enthusiasm for the mission.
Although Britain and other allies have signaled their readiness to deploy troops for such a mission, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said after Russian-American talks in Saudi Arabia that Moscow would not accept a peacekeeping force composed of troops from NATO member countries.
Information has emerged in the public domain about the possible inclusion of Chinese or Brazilian troops in such a mission, but these countries have not signaled their intention to participate.
Many believe that Putin is in no hurry to conclude a peace agreement.
“The negotiations seem desirable, but by no means necessary for Russia to achieve its goals in its war against Ukraine“, writes Stanovaya.
“Almost any outcome will be good for Moscow“, she believes, pointing to the erosion of Western unity and the decline of Western support for Kiev amid the advance of Moscow's forces.
“Putin has repeatedly made it clear that he believes Russia can achieve its goals in Ukraine without any deal brokered by the United States,“ Stanovaya notes. “According to him, Moscow should simply wait for Ukraine to collapse on its own, and then the Russian army will crush any remaining resistance from the Ukrainian army“.