For US President Trump, the war in Ukraine is an obstacle to his relations with Russia. He is ready to sacrifice Ukraine for the sake of deals with Putin. And China can benefit from all this.
The Russian delegation for the US-Russian negotiations in Riyadh also included Kirill Dmitriev, the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund. During the talks, the return of American companies to Russia, which Dmitriev expects in the second quarter of this year, was also touched upon, writes the German public television ARD. Joint projects in the Arctic and in the energy sector were also discussed.
And Russia's war against Ukraine? One of the many negotiating groups was dealing with this topic, and further participation by Ukraine and European countries was not ruled out, Dmitriev told "Politico".
Russia is pleased
What is known so far speaks of major or even complete concessions by Trump to Putin, which is reflected in the satisfied statements from the Russian side.
According to American media, this is a three-stage peace plan that first provides for a ceasefire, then elections in Ukraine, and then the signing of a final agreement, ARD notes.
The holding of elections in Ukraine has long been a key issue for Russia, apparently in the hope of imposing a pro-Russian candidate. Putin has called President Zelensky illegitimate, as no elections have been held since his first term ended in 2023. However, the Ukrainian constitution states that there are no elections during wartime - as is the rule in other countries, the German public-law media outlet emphasizes.
The demands are high
Now Trump is repeating the theses of Russian propaganda and calling Zelensky a "dictator without elections". At the same time, he is threatening Ukrainians. "Maybe one day they will become Russians, or maybe they won't" - depending on whether they agree to a deal with the United States or not.
The deal is as follows: in response to further financial and military assistance from the United States, Ukraine will grant access to its resources. In his "Plan for Victory" presented in 2024, Zelensky himself had included the prospect of such access. After a conversation with Trump, he said that in the context of Ukraine's natural resources, US investments could amount to "trillions of dollars". Their strategic importance for the digital industry and the military sector has already been noted by NATO and the EU, ARD points out.
However, Trump may want much more than valuable raw materials: according to the London-based "Telegraph", a draft from early February envisaged the creation of a joint investment fund to ensure that "hostile parties to the conflict do not benefit from the reconstruction of Ukraine". In addition to minerals, ports and other infrastructure facilities are also mentioned. Overall, the total amount of the demands exceeds Germany's reparations payments after World War I, the newspaper estimates. And Russia will not be required to pay anything.
No promises for Ukraine
What is also missing are guarantees for Ukraine's security. The agreement is not ready yet, which is why I have not signed it, Zelensky said at the Munich Security Conference.
US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth ruled out Ukraine joining NATO in the near future, as well as the participation of US troops to ensure a peaceful solution in Ukraine. Instead, the Pentagon sent questionnaires to European countries - what they are ready to do. Britain immediately said it was ready to send troops. Countries such as Poland see their own security under threat without US military support. Russia, for its part, is firmly against NATO or EU troops, ARD recalls.
At the same time, the possible participation of troops from non-European countries to ensure peace - such as from China or Brazil - was mentioned. They could act as a buffer along the ceasefire line and prevent direct contact between European and Russian troops.
Official China refused to comment on this "hypothetical issue", but at the Munich conference, Chinese military expert Zhu Bo said that his country has "sufficient troops and military power" to support international guarantees. China could consider sending troops if other non-European countries such as India get involved, the expert was quoted as saying by the South China Morning Post.
An Indian media outlet quotes a former military officer with a similar position: the Indian army has the strength and experience to take on this task. Brazil and India are, along with Russia and China, members of the BRICS group, which is positioned against Europe and the United States.
Will China win in the end?
It seems that Trump wants to leave Ukraine to Russia, as he is counting on better deals with Putin - both in terms of the return of American companies to the country, and on projects in the Arctic and in energy, ARD writes.
But at the same time, the publication asks whether Trump has taken into account the will to resist of the Ukrainians. The more pressure he tries to exert on Zelensky, the more the cohesion of the Ukrainians grows. Wladimir Klitschko, the brother of Kiev Mayor Vitali Klitschko, recently said in Hamburg: "After the heavy casualties of recent years, people are not ready to bend to an imposed peace on Putin's terms".
One possibility is for Zelensky to make a deal with China: in exchange for support for stabilization, Ukraine would allow investment in reconstruction and raw material extraction. Former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielus Landsbergis is already worried about this prospect, writing on Platform X: "If the US and Europe do not offer security to Ukraine, China may step in and exert influence on Russia. They may offer an even better deal than Trump.".