Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky ordered to use "all the possibilities of sociological surveys" to prove to the White House that his political rating is significantly higher than the four percent announced by US President Donald Trump. Conducting the relevant surveys should take "a week or two", the head of state estimated. But on February 23, he announced that 65% of Ukrainians support him.
Trust in President Zelensky
The Ukrainian president does not disclose the source of this data, but recent publications indicate that the survey "Attitudes to Individual European Leaders" was conducted by the Ukrainian sociological group "Rating" between February 20 and 21 among 1,200 respondents.
According to its results, almost a third of respondents "have absolute trust" in the head of state, another third "rather trust" in the president, while about 34% do not trust him. In addition, the results of the survey show that the attitude of Ukrainian residents towards Zelensky is improving for the first time since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. Indeed, during previous surveys in January, the level of trust was 57%, and in November 2024 - 53%.
A slightly more modest support is evidenced by the survey conducted by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) among a thousand respondents. According to it, in early February, 57% of respondents trust Volodymyr Zelensky, with the share of the president's supporters exceeding 50% in all regions of Ukraine. According to Elon Musk, head of the US Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), however, the results of the KMIS were biased. For no other reason than because the institute allegedly received funding from USAID.
Support for Zelensky's foreign policy
The executive director of the KMIS, Anton Khrushetsky, rejects these claims: his institute did not receive American grants, and the aforementioned study was conducted on his initiative. The sociologist, in turn, questions the origin of the indicators cited by the Trump administration - support of 4 percent. "Support for action and trust are different categories, which is why we measure them separately. The level of support for Zelensky's actions, according to our other research, is even several points higher than the level of trust," Khrushchev explains.
"We are observing this not for the first time: when the president is perceived in the context of foreign policy, when he speaks at forums, seeks help from the West, his indicators increase. As soon as domestic politics - corruption or mobilization - take over, trust drops," the sociologist said. Meanwhile, a new survey by the sociological group "Rating" showed that 91% of respondents are against negotiations between the US and Russia to end the war without the participation of Ukraine. At the same time, 64% of Ukrainians support direct peace talks between Kiev and Moscow.
The occupied territories do not affect the ratings
"We still cover with telephone surveys the areas where mobile phones have coverage, but in-person surveys in Kherson and Donetsk regions are no longer conducted due to danger," explains the executive director of the KMIS.
How would the opinion of residents of the occupied territories change the picture of the surveys? It is practically impossible to establish this, since people living in constant fear of the Russian authorities simply refuse to answer any questions, notes Oleksiy Garan, professor of political science at the National University "Kyiv-Mohyla Academy". "However, it is unlikely that they will be able to vote at all in the hypothetical election, so their opinion is unlikely to affect the legitimacy of the president," explains the scientist, who works as an advisor to the "Democratic Initiatives" Foundation, which also conducts sociological research.
Valery Zaluzhny and Zelensky's political rating
The topic of Zelensky's rating was also raised by Vladimir Putin this week. "It doesn't really matter how many percent he has - four or more. The important thing is that his rating, according to our data, is exactly two times lower than that of his possible closest political rival - Zaluzhny, the former commander of the Ukrainian armed forces, who was sent to London. He has exactly two times higher rating," the Kremlin leader said in an interview with Russian media.
Such comparisons are not entirely appropriate, believes Anton Khrushchev, because Valery Zaluzhny has not yet confirmed his political ambitions in any way. "However, it is not the first time that he and other commanders have been included in the measurement of ratings for the upcoming political elections. This can distort the picture, since the military, whose level of public trust is high, attract potential votes for other candidates," the expert explains.
Hypothetical ratings for hypothetical elections
Studies of the results of hypothetical voting in parliamentary and presidential elections are regularly conducted by sociological agencies on behalf of various political forces, but their results are not published for the general public during wartime. "We do not print this data because it may contribute to the destabilization of the situation in the country," explains Oleksiy Garan. However, the increasingly frequent talk about the upcoming elections has violated this tacit agreement of Ukrainian sociologists.
Last week, the newspaper "Ukrainska Pravda" published detailed results of a survey conducted by the Center for Social and Marketing Research SOCIS - a company that is indirectly owned by Igor Grinyev, a deputy in the Verkhovna Rada from the Petro Poroshenko bloc.
Under the question "Who would you personally vote for in the presidential elections, if they were held in the near future?" the researchers of "SOCIS" have put forward a list of as many as 13 candidates. It is the former head of the Ukrainian army who would lead in a hypothetical election according to this survey - 27.2 percent of respondents "voted" for him. Only 15.9 percent of respondents are ready to elect Volodymyr Zelensky for a second term. However, the share of respondents who note that they have not yet decided remains quite high - in February it was 21.6 percent.
Author: Igor Burdikha