If the US does stop its military aid, the intelligence and communications of the Ukrainian army will suffer, and its air defense may be in critical condition. However, a real collapse cannot be expected.
Citing senior US administration officials, the "New York Times" and the "Washington Post" reported on February 28 that the Trump administration is considering canceling all US military aid to Ukraine - including all supplies approved by the former administration of President Joe Biden.
The White House press secretary confirmed the same, but in this case a little more caution would not be superfluous, the German public media ZDF points out in this regard: “Firstly, the press secretary can only say what the President of the United States has authorized - and Donald Trump's communication on this issue is notoriously inconsistent. It is not excluded that the current statement will soon be replaced by another, opposite one. Second, it is still not clear what “canceling aid“ actually means, what this step refers to and how long it should take“.
The worst-case scenario: if the US does not provide information
Several scenarios are emerging. In the worst case, the US would stop providing Kiev with all intelligence and other information. This would be particularly problematic for Ukrainian units on the front lines, especially in the Kursk region, where they rely heavily on US military satellites.
Losing access to Starlink would significantly slow down the ability to respond, analyze, and plan operations on the battlefield. Without the current support from satellite navigation, the time to collect and process data and provide it to the relevant weapons systems would increase from several minutes to several hours. This would make Ukrainian frontline units much more vulnerable to Russian troops, ZDF explains.
Furthermore, the lack of information exchange would seriously reduce or even completely hinder Ukraine's ability to deliver precision strikes deep into Russian territory.
What will this mean for ammunition and drones?
In terms of ammunition, Ukraine is in a relatively good position in the short and medium term. The situation has improved compared to the previous year, which is due to increased Ukrainian and European production, as well as deliveries within the framework of the so-called “Czech initiative“.
The ratio between Ukrainian and Russian artillery strike power is currently estimated at around 1:2, with some even talking about 1:1.5. In addition, most of the losses of personnel on the front line are now caused by FPV drones, in which Ukraine is almost independent, that is, it can produce them itself.
Civilian casualties if the work of the air defense is blocked
If the US decides to block the use of air defense systems produced by it, including radars and missiles, this could radically reduce the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense, ZDF also points out.
This would leave Ukraine with almost no ability to intercept Russian ballistic missiles. The consequence of this would be that the Ukrainian energy system would be greatly weakened, as it would continue to be the main target of Russian air strikes – especially since the support of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) for the repair of the energy infrastructure has already been canceled.
Purely theoretically, the United States could ask Ukraine to stop using all weapons systems with American components. However, this would be difficult to implement for weapons that are already actively used by the Ukrainian army, such as the Bradley armored fighting vehicles, artillery howitzers and various firearms.
We can imagine a possible ban on the use of HIMARS - the mobile artillery rocket launcher, or some even more advanced systems. But an immediate effect would be unlikely. And considering that this could have a very negative impact on the image of the US as an arms supplier, this scenario is also unrealistic, the German publication points out.
A rapid collapse is highly unlikely
In general, intelligence and communications support for Ukraine is currently the most important element of US military assistance. If it is dropped, the Ukrainian units on the front will find themselves in a much more difficult situation and losses will increase rapidly.
Closing air defense support would also endanger the civilian population. But even under such circumstances, a rapid collapse of the Ukrainian armed forces cannot be expected, ZDF summarizes.