Joe Biden's strategy for Ukraine was heavily criticized while he was US president. But against the backdrop of the few weeks of Donald Trump's presidency, his predecessor already looks like a geopolitical genius.
This was commented on in an article for The Hill by Alexander Motyl, a professor of political science at Rutgers University in Newark and an expert on Ukraine, Russia and the USSR.
He recalls that Biden was criticized for the fact that military aid to Ukraine was insufficient and arrived too late, that he never formulated a clear strategy, except to support Ukraine "as much as necessary". And finally, he was accused of an apparent reluctance to bring the situation to a complete military defeat of Russia.
"This criticism was justified. But compared to what his successor is doing in the Oval Office, he now looks like a real genius," Motyl writes.
The analyst noted that despite all the shortcomings of his policy, Biden has achieved three important goals: Ukraine has survived the Russian invasion, Ukraine has regained a significant part of its initially lost territory, and by supporting Ukraine, Biden has undermined Russia's military potential and its geopolitical influence in the world.
Trump's main reproach to Biden is the unfounded claim that Russia would not have attacked Ukraine in 2022 if Trump were president of the United States.
"Counterfactuals are useful for analysis only if they are supported by some theory. Maybe Putin could not have attacked because Trump is tough. But perhaps Putin would have attacked because Trump clearly admires him and his desire to divide the world into spheres of influence of great powers," the analyst wrote.
According to Motyl, Trump's "consistent conciliatory behavior" towards Russia and its dictator seems like a much more likely scenario in an alternative 2022 in which America is led by Trump.
"Biden wasn't sure he wanted Ukraine to win. Trump seems sure he wanted Ukraine to lose. So, two and a half cheers for Biden's Ukraine policy and three big "woo-hoos" for Trump's policy," the political analyst summed up.