On several occasions during the recent intense diplomatic activity related to Ukraine and, more generally, US-European relations, European leaders have said that current US President Donald Trump follows the logic of deal-making, Agence France-Presse, Reuters and ANSA recall. French President Emmanuel Macron made a similar comment during his meeting with Trump at the White House on February 24. This was also the opinion expressed by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni during the meeting of European leaders in London on March 2. Trump himself also admitted during his meeting with Macron on February 24 that he has always been involved in deals and this is something he understands well, world agencies recall, BTA writes.
In the head of every person in deals, certain amounts are spinning. In Trump's head lately, two specific amounts have also been spinning, which he mentioned several times, talking about US relations with Ukraine and US relations with Europe. These amounts are 350 billion and 500 billion dollars, summarize Western media, including Agence France-Presse, Reuters, Associated Press, “Politico“, CNN, BBC and “Le Monde“.
Trump demanded a deal under which Ukrainian rare earth elements and other minerals would be developed by Americans as compensation for the aid provided by the United States to Ukraine so far and as a guarantee that the United States would continue to assist Ukraine in the future. In addition, according to both Trump and US Vice President J.D. Vance, such an American economic presence in Ukraine would be the best guarantee that the country would not be attacked by Russia in the future. American aid to Ukraine comes at a price, the BBC and “Politico“ noted, when Trump initially asked Ukraine for minerals equivalent to 500 billion dollars and insisted that this be included in the bilateral agreement. Trump claimed that the Ukrainians had agreed to this amount, but later objections came from the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky.
After an exchange of sharp remarks between Trump and Zelensky, a compromise version of an agreement on American development of Ukrainian minerals was reached. The amount of $ 500 billion that Trump had spoken about was dropped from this version and 50 percent appeared. The new version of the agreement provides for the creation of an investment fund for the reconstruction of Ukraine, which will be managed by Kiev and Washington on equal terms, BBC and Agence France-Presse recall. According to the text, Ukraine will contribute 50% of future revenues from state mineral resources, oil and gas to the fund, and then the fund will invest these funds to support the safety, security and prosperity of Ukraine. The agreement also states that the US government, in compliance with US law, will maintain a long-term financial commitment to the development of a stable and economically prosperous Ukraine.
This version of the deal was circulated by Ukrainian media in late February before the scandal between Zelensky and Trump in the Oval Office of the White House, in which Vance also took an active part, the BBC recalls. After the escalation of tensions between Washington and Kiev and the intervention of European leaders, as well as Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the head of NATO in efforts to reduce tensions, talks between Ukrainian and American delegations eventually came to the Saudi city of Jeddah. The joint statement from the meeting, which took place yesterday, published by Reuters, said that the Ukrainian delegation had once again expressed the strong gratitude of the Ukrainian people to President Trump, the US Congress and the American people for making possible the significant progress towards peace. Ukraine also expressed readiness to accept the US proposal to immediately introduce a 30-day ceasefire with Russia, which can be extended by mutual agreement of the parties and which is subject to acceptance and simultaneous implementation by Russia. The US immediately lifted the pause in the exchange of intelligence information introduced by it last week and is resuming security assistance to Ukraine. The declaration from the meeting in Jeddah also spoke of an agreement between the US and Ukrainian presidents to conclude a comprehensive agreement on Ukraine's critical underground resources as soon as possible in order to achieve growth of Ukraine's economy and ensure the long-term prosperity and security of this country, Reuters recalls.
At this stage, the $500 billion Trump was talking about seems to have been dropped from the bilateral talks. But the same $500 billion figure in relation to Ukraine appeared on February 25 in a World Bank assessment, cited by Agence France-Presse and “France 24“. According to the global financial institution's analysis of the damage caused to Ukraine by the three-year war there, the country's reconstruction over the next decade will require more than $500 billion, or $524 billion to be precise. The World Bank's analysis shows that direct damage from the war has already reached $176 billion, with the most affected sectors being housing, transport, energy, trade, industry and education. The reconstruction and recovery needs in Ukraine are greatest in the housing sector (almost $84 billion) of the total long-term needs. This is followed by the transport sector (almost $78 billion), the energy and mining sector (almost $68 billion), trade and industry (over $64 billion) and agriculture (over $55 billion). Across all sectors, the cost of clearing debris alone reaches almost $13 billion. All of these specific figures, cited by the World Bank, relate to the period from February 24, 2022 to December 31, 2024.
The other amount that Trump has been talking about recently - the $350 billion - is related to both Ukraine and the EU. Trump said several times in February that the US had provided Ukraine with $350 billion in aid. But according to US government sources, since 2022, the aid granted by the US to Ukraine has amounted to $174.2 billion, Euronews reports. and “ABC News“
The amount of $350 billion, repeated by Trump, is far from reality, commented “Le Monde“. Since 2022, the US Congress has validated five packages of financial and military aid to Ukraine worth $175 billion, the French publication adds. But only a part of this amount - $106 billion - was allocated directly to the Ukrainian government. The rest served to finance American arms companies. "A large part of the aid has been spent by the US to pay American factories and American workers who produce various weapons sent to Ukraine or who replenish the American arms stockpiles from which the Pentagon has taken weapons for Ukraine since the beginning of the conflict there," says an assessment by the American think tank Council on Foreign Relations, notes "Monde".
For its part, the EU as a whole and its individual member states have provided about 135 billion euros in financial and military assistance to Ukraine since 2022, according to data from the European Council. An additional 50 billion euros in aid is planned for the country's reconstruction for the period 2024-2027. This amount, in particular, will have to serve to finance the substantial reforms that Ukraine must make on its path to EU membership, comments "Monde". According to the German Kiel Institute for the World Economy, which is a reference institution for global economic issues and calculations, European aid to Ukraine by the end of 2024 is estimated at around 113 billion euros. This estimate, which differs from the EU estimate, includes only direct aid granted to Ukraine, while the EU also takes into account aid related to the training of Ukrainian military personnel outside Ukraine, as well as amounts paid to neighboring countries of Ukraine, such as Moldova, directly affected by the conflict on Ukrainian territory, explains Giuseppe Irto, an analyst at the Kiel Institute, quoted by “Monde“.
Estimates of aid granted to Ukraine may vary depending on the calculation methodology, but none of the estimates in this regard justify Trump's claims about $350 billion granted by the United States to Ukraine, commented “Monde“.
But the amount of $350 billion that Trump speaks of in connection with Ukraine may turn out to be accurate in another respect. Ukraine said on February 23 that it has $350 billion in rare earth elements in the Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia, Agence France-Presse reported. This data was announced by Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy Yulia Sviridenko. A large part of Ukraine's resources are located in the mining and industrial region of Donbas in the eastern part of the country. And a large part of this region is occupied by Russia, Agence France-Presse recalls.
The sum of $350 billion is also on Trump's mind in relation to the EU. According to him, the United States has a trade deficit with the EU of $350 billion. "The EU is very unfair. They don't buy our cars, they don't buy our agricultural products, they don't buy almost anything from us. We have to fix that," Trump warned in mid-February, Agence France-Presse recalls.
According to data from the US Department of Commerce, the US trade deficit with the EU is $235 billion in 2024. On the other hand, the US has a trade surplus with the EU in the services sector, the agency added.
Because of the trade deficit, Trump is threatening the EU with higher tariffs, which he will impose from the beginning of April on the automotive sector, semiconductors and pharmaceutical products, commented the French publication “Les Eco“. Here he often mentions 25 percent. According to him, the only chance to avoid the imposition of such tariffs would be for Europe to invest in factories in the US.
During his visit to the White House on February 24, French President Macron raised the topic of tariffs with Trump. He told him that he could not wage a trade war with China and the EU at the same time and that he could not force the EU to simultaneously seek a solution to high US tariffs and seek funds for more defense spending. After the visit to the White House, Macron said that he believed he had managed to convince Trump not to introduce tariffs, recalls “Fox News“. But two days later, on February 26, Trump announced that he had decided to introduce 25 percent tariffs on European imports very soon, world agencies reported. Breaking the news about the tariffs, Trump said that the EU was designed to cause trouble for the US, recalls “Figaro“. Trump added that the EU had achieved its goal, but now that will change because he is the president of the US. Trump warned that retaliatory measures from the EU will not work, because then it is enough for the US to stop buying goods from Europe. If this happens, the US will win in this trade confrontation, because, as he said, the US is the cornucopia for everyone. In response to Trump's warnings, the European Commission recalled that EU tariffs are among the lowest in the world and that it sees no justification for increasing US tariffs on European imports. Macron promised reciprocal European action towards the US in this regard, Agence France-Presse added. While Italian Prime Minister Meloni expressed hope that the US and the EU would reach an agreement on the issue that would be beneficial for all, so as to avoid the widespread introduction of tariffs, ANSA reported.
As of today, the EU is affected by the introduction of US tariffs on steel and aluminium. EC President Ursula von der Leyen said that the EU remains open to negotiations with the US on the issue of tariffs. Shortly before, however, Reuters reported that the EU would impose counter-tariffs on US goods worth 26 billion euros ($28.33 billion) in response to US tariffs on imported steel and aluminium. The EU's counter-measures will come into force next month, Reuters specifies. "As the US applies tariffs (on European products – ed. note) worth 28 billion dollars, we are responding with countermeasures worth 26 billion euros ($28 billion)", the EC President said in a statement this morning.