The arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu was justified by accusations of corruption and support for the banned Kurdistan Workers' Party PKK, but Turkey expert Hurcan Asli Aksoy emphasized to ARD that the reasons are not legal, but political. “The real reason is that Imamoglu, as well as Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas, are members of the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), which in many polls is ahead of Erdogan's party. Therefore, the two are serious opponents for Erdogan - a real challenge”, Aksoy noted to the German public-law media.
She also explained that Imamoglu is a very charismatic politician. “He enjoys broad public support and the approval of voters, not only among the supporters of the HDP, but also among conservative voters who are expected to vote for Erdogan's party. This breadth of public support is also evident in the protests that have taken place in Istanbul“, Aksoy points out. According to her, there is no doubt: “With this arrest, Erdogan is simply trying to remove his biggest opponent“.
"This is a kind of civil coup"
Why is the arrest taking place right now?
H. Aksoy: HDP wanted to determine its leading candidate on Sunday. With the arrest, the regime wants to thwart this internal party election and in any case prevent Imamoglu from being elected. It remains to be seen whether this will happen – it is likely that early elections will be banned.
Turkey has long been an autocratic state, but until now it has still allowed elections to be held, even though the conditions were not fair - either because of the obstacles created for the candidates, or because of their inequality in the media, restrictions on funding or in other ways. Now, for the first time in history, we see that the government is even preventing internal party elections. This is a step towards full authoritarianism - a kind of civil coup.
Is Erdogan perhaps using his current great foreign policy power - considering Turkey's role in Syria or its current role in terms of security in Europe?
H. Aksoy: Yes, Erdogan certainly takes regional and geopolitical circumstances into account. The government in Ankara knows very well that now neither the EU nor the US can seriously react to this domestic political move. There have been criticisms - but very weak ones. The US has no interest, and Europe currently has weak geopolitical positions. Erdogan's regime is aware of this.
Support for the PKK?
There is currently a process of rapprochement between Erdogan's party and the Kurdish PKK. How does the accusation against Imamoglu that he supported the PKK sound against this background?
H. Aksoy: It is indeed strange, considering that the government is currently negotiating with the PKK leader for a ceasefire and the dissolution of the party. Erdogan's approach is difficult to explain. It is very contradictory and variable when it comes to who is considered to be PKK sympathizers.
However, since Turkey no longer has a rule of law, it is very difficult to establish the logic by which the judiciary or the government functions. The regime wants the opposition to conform to its own ideas - which is why they define it as they see fit. We cannot find any other logic. Only one thing is certain: this is a facade democracy, the last vestiges of political competition have now disappeared.
"Erdogan's logic will prove correct"
What will be the repercussions of the arrest in domestic politics? Will it strengthen or weaken Erdogan politically?
H. Aksoy: Things could go either way. In the late 1990s, Erdogan himself went to prison while he was mayor of Istanbul. When he got out, he founded his party and has been in power for 23 years.
Many say that the same thing could happen now. But now the political system is completely different: it is not a parliamentary system, but a presidential system, tailored to Erdogan's needs. He needs 51 percent of the vote to be re-elected, and because he is weakened, he needs ever larger and new alliances.
Nevertheless, I think that Erdogan's logic will turn out to be correct - not because voters like the way he acts, but because he can rely on the entire state apparatus: not only the political apparatus, but also the judiciary. The judiciary is not independent, although not all prosecutors and judges are Erdogan supporters. There is no rule of law in Turkey anymore.
And what would happen to the AKP without Imamoglu?
H. Aksoy: At the moment, this party has as much support as the Justice and Development Party - about 30 percent. If Imamoglu drops out, it will be an extremely heavy blow to the AKP. This will mean that it cannot protect its candidate. The party will not collapse, but it will be permanently weakened.
"Erdogan plans to run again"
Isn't Imamoglu's arrest another sign that Erdogan wants to run again in the upcoming elections – even though he is not entitled to do so in principle?
H. Aksoy: Yes, it is clear that Erdogan plans to run again. He has already said: “We will serve as long as God gives us life“. This means that he would like to rule until the end of his life – that is what comes out of his words.
To do this, he can either change the Constitution and run in the elections scheduled for 2028, or the parliament can decide on early elections – in which case he can also run according to the current law. Another possibility is not ruled out - Erdogan deciding to cancel the elections – but that doesn't seem likely anymore, because we've seen that he's now trying to eliminate competition.
I think he'll decide to bring forward the next elections - officially, parliament will do that. And if by chance he refuses to cooperate, Erdogan could try a referendum. We'll see how things go.